ABC Renew/Cancel Week 5: Not Dead Yet Is Starting to Look, Well... Dead + ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness Elite Eight

This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, two Wednesday night comedies are analyzed, with a prediction change for one of them, while ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness kicks into high gear with the winner of last week's poll joining the seven shows that all received immediate entry to the Elite Eight!

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:

Leans Cancellation:
Not Dead Yet (0.26, 0.21-0.32)

Leans Renewal
The Conners (0.38, 0.36-0.41)

Likely Renewal:
The Rookie (0.35, 0.32-0.38)
Will Trent (0.36, 0.33-0.38)

Certain Renewal:
9-1-1 (0.56, 0.52-0.60)
Grey's Anatomy (0.52, 0.47-0.56)

Already Canceled/Final Season:
The Good Doctor (0.21, 0.18-0.26)
Station 19 (0.35, 0.32-0.37)

Already Renewed:
Abbott Elementary (0.52, 0.28-1.43) 

Not Dead Yet: This is an update I would have liked to have made last week, but there was too much else to discuss with the Thursday lineup that left Not Dead yet pushed to the back burner. The time is here now, however, to discuss the worsening outlook of ABC's lowest-rated sitcom. The last time I wrote about this show was after its premiere, where it drew a 0.32 and looked relatively decent behind the 0.41 rating for The Conners. In the weeks that have followed, though, the show dropped to 0.2s, even as The Conners holds on to 0.4s. That in itself had me doubting whether ABC would actually renew the show, but the subsequent pilot orders of two new sitcoms made me really doubt its renewal prospects. Let's face it, ABC's Wednesday night lineup is essentially a tire fire: half of the lineup is repeats at this point, while Not Dead Yet is averaging just 70% of the league average and even breakout streaming hit Abbott Elementary's L+SD pulse is fading. It's hard to blame ABC for trying to freshen up this lineup with a few new shows, especially considering that these new pilots are starring beloved ABC sitcom stars in Tim Allen and Ty Burrell. ABC's fans know them and watched them both for over a decade on the network, and their new shows could help reinvigorate what is essentially a dying lineup. If both are ordered, I don't envision Not Dead Yet being renewed. As I said above, its ratings are the weakest of the lineup, and sick out like a sore thumb even in a weak comedy block. It's ABC's second-lowest-rated show, beating only The Good Doctor, which airs at 10 PM and is already canceled. There's just not a place for it in ABC's lineup if they order these two new comedies - something they really ought to do to give them a fighting chance at success on this night. I still can't entirely rule out a renewal, as ABC has been known to give short fall orders to some underperforming comedies before replacing them midseason, but I don't see that happening this time. It LEANS CANCELLATION for the first time in its run.

The Conners: The Conners still has all the problems I've discussed in previous editions - it's old, it's unowned, and it's expensive - but I think it's in a better position now than it was before. Its ratings haven't actually gotten any better, but it looks better, as its fellow Wednesday comedies have both slipped, with Abbott Elementary trailing it in the ratings the last three times it's aired. It can probably thank its time slot for that, but it is a good sign that it can still capitalize on that and post respectable ratings. Before this season, ABC was singing the show's praises and refuting rumors that it would be the final season, so I continue to believe that it will be renewed so long as ABC can work out a deal again. They've done so every season for the last six years, and I expect that to continue this season, for likely the final time. It still LEANS RENEWAL.

ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness continues!

Last week was the preliminary round of the ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness, with the networks' two already-canceled scripted series facing off in a play-in to make the Elite Eight, alongside the seven other shows on the network. Following a groundswell of support from its very loyal fanbase, Station 19 easily dispatched The Good Doctor. While the medical drama racked up over a hundred votes and found a bit of late momentum, ultimately working itself to 4% of the vote after going as low as 0.7% at its lowest point, it wasn't nearly enough to overcome the support for Station 19, which garnered over 3,500 votes over the week. It will face off against the #1 seed, ABC's highest-rated series: Fox transplant 9-1-1. Other matchups include Wednesday comedy lead-off The Conners against sophomore Tuesday anchor Will Trent, Emmy darling Abbott Elementary against fellow Wednesday sitcom Not Dead Yet, and Station 19's parent series, Grey's Anatomy, against veteran police procedural The Rookie. You can also vote in the NBC March Madness here, the Fox March Madness here, and the CBS March Madness here.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and make sure to vote in the ABC March Madness polls for this week!

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