Below are predictions for Paramount+ scripted originals with outstanding fates, followed by an analysis. Predictions are made largely on a show’s ranking in the Popular Shows list alongside its prominence on Paramount+’s home page. Note that the Popular Shows list fluctuates often, so the number in that column is best treated as a general gauge. The following changes have been made from the most recent edition:
-Frasier has been upgraded from Leans Renew to Renewed
-Halo debuts as Leans Renew
-Big Nate has been downgraded from Leans Renew to Likely Cancel
-Halo debuts as Leans Renew
-Big Nate has been downgraded from Leans Renew to Likely Cancel
Halo
Ranked among the top shows on the Popular Shows list, Halo is currently one of Paramount+’s best performing original series. According to Television Stats, it’s also been one of the most-torrented shows on ezTV since the premiere of its second season. While the torrents won’t help its renewal chances, it demonstrates there is an audience watching Halo. Given the presumed audience size, a renewal would seem guaranteed.
The problem comes in the price tag attached to this series. While the viewership is seemingly strong for Paramount+, it reportedly costs around $10 million per episode to produce. That makes it one of the most expensive TV shows on a per-episode basis of all time. With Paramount looking to cut costs on TV shows and films, they may just decide producing a third season of Halo would be too expensive.
Factoring in both the popularity and the costs, Halo gets a Leans Renew prediction. If Paramount sticks to their word, a hypothetical Season 3 of Halo would likely involve budget cuts.
Special Ops: Lioness
Coming from Paramount super-creator Taylor Sheridan, Special Ops: Lioness started off strong. Paramount+ even put out a press release about its record-breaking series premiere viewership. Seven months later, there’s still no official word on Special Ops: Lioness’ future.
There’s a major question mark of just how many shows Taylor Sheridan can work on at once. Sheridan still has the Yellowstone universe to tend to, as well as Mayor of Kingston, Tulsa King, and the upcoming Landman. Given how many other projects Taylor Sheridan has to work on, it may be a while before Special Ops: Lioness Season 2 could realistically air, leaving Paramount+ to wonder if it’s even worth commissioning. The lengthy work stoppages that resulted from the strikes do not help on this front, with Sheridan and Paramount+ seemingly focused now on producing already-commissioned projects over worrying about a renewal announcement for Special Ops: Lioness.
Given how long it’s been since the Season 1 finale aired, the only thing Special Ops: Lioness from being downgraded is its continued presence on the home page. With four appearances, Special Ops: Lioness is getting as much exposure as any Paramount+ original could hope for.
Frasier
Paramount bet big on a Frasier revival, and it did manage to top the Popular Shows list upon its premiere. The original Frasier series has also remained a popular title on Paramount+ throughout the revival’s run. However, with all the promotion Paramount poured into this revival, one would have to wonder if it’s really doing as well as they would have hoped. It’s plummeted to a ranking much closer to #100 than #1, due in part to the return of CBS’s scripted series. Nonetheless, the revival has been renewed for a second season. Last placed in the Leans Renew column, this is a correct prediction.
I often wonder how the Frasier revival would have performed as a Netflix original, especially if the original Frasier had also remained as part of Netflix’s library. Perhaps Paramount works out a licensing deal with Netflix for the revival, much like they did with School Spirits. While it’s very unlikely to happen, it would benefit the series’ viewership and potentially bring more viewers to Paramount+ for Season 2.
Mike Judge’s Beavis and Butt-Head
It’s now been over eight months since the second season finale of Mike Judge’s Beavis and Butt-Head, which received a two-season order back in 2020. With zero appearances on the home page, including the Adult Animation section, it’s safe to say Mike Judge’s Beavis and Butt-Head is not a priority for Paramount+ right now. A third season could help bring attention to the original series and movies that call Paramount+ home, but it’s looking increasingly unlikely. It remains in the Likely Cancel category in this edition, with a small glimmer of home coming from the fact it’s still on the Popular Shows list.
Big Nate
Like Mike Judge’s Beavis and Butt-Head, Big Nate makes zero appearances on Paramount+’s home page. Even more worrisome, it only makes one low-profile appearance in the Nickelodeon brand page: it’s the second-to-last show that appears in the ‘The Splat Zone’ section. Maybe it will get more attention once Season 2 finally premieres on Nickelodeon, but right now its prospects are looking grim. It gets downgraded to Likely Cancel in this edition.