CBS Renew/Cancel Week 16: An Assessment of the NCIS Franchise

The Ratings Junkie

Below are the predictions for Week 16 of CBS Renew/Cancel, followed by an analysis and poll. Underneath that you can create and share your own predictions by using the Interactive Schedule. Let me know what you think in the comments!

Prediction Changes

-NCIS: Origins is upgraded from Tilts Renew to Leans Renew

-Raid the Cage is downgraded from Leans Cancel to Likely Cancel

-NCIS: Sydney debuts as Tilts Renew

Prediction Key

Week 16 Predictions

NCIS: Sydney

NCIS: Sydney is in a different position than the other scripted shows on CBS. It was originally intended to only air in Australia, but aired on CBS due to the strikes. There’s even a chance NCIS: Sydney won’t be renewed or canceled by the time CBS announces their schedule in May. While the second season has premiered on Paramount+ in Australia, just like it has in the United States, its linear premiere date on Network 10 is up in the air. As a relatively lower-rated series that won’t be producing more than 8-10 episodes a season, CBS won’t be rushing to put NCIS: Sydney on their fall schedule anyway. They won’t be airing a third season at all unless it makes sense to renew it in Australia. As of now both an argument for renewal or cancelation can be made — according to FlixPatrol, NCIS: Sydney was #7 on Paramount+ in Australia the day after its second episode dropped, and #9 the day after, before falling out of the top 10. It did not break the top 10 in the United States according to our What’s Trending on Streaming column.

For now, NCIS: Sydney gets the benefit of the doubt and debuts as Tilts Renew. It is very much on the bubble and would best be used in its current capacity, premiering midseason to take over for a show that wrapped up a final season in the fall.

NCIS: Origins

Based on recent history, if NCIS: Sydney gets renewed, NCIS: Origins will be canceled, and vice versa. That’s barring a surprise cancelation for NCIS. This ongoing cycle of canceling an NCIS spinoff, only to introduce a new spinoff in the fall, has been going on since spring 2021. The lineage to NCIS: Origins can essentially be broken down by this classic meme:

While at the same time, this meme is also pertinent:

Simply put, this can’t keep on happening. I have never seen a franchise’s fanbase more fractured than the NCIS franchise today. It appears that CBS keeps thinking they can do better, and yet each spinoff finds itself on the bubble. At least Origins isn’t aging like Los Angeles, or too expensive like Hawai’i. CBS can even retool it if needed, going as far as making a second season focused on a different character. It wouldn’t be the first time an NCIS spinoff saw a retooling of sorts, with LL Cool J jumping over to Hawai’i upon the conclusion of Los Angeles.

The other factor benefitting NCIS: Origins is the fact there really isn’t an obvious replacement for it in the NCISverse. NCIS arguably isn’t ready to be demoted to 10pm, and Origins would be a stronger pick than having Paramount+ imports like Sydney and the upcoming Tony & Ziva share the time slot. Despite the cancelations of New Orleans, Los Angeles, and Hawai’i, CBS still sees value in the NCIS franchise. At this point, a renewal for Origins may just be their best bet. It is upgraded to Leans Renew this week, making it safer than fellow spinoff NCIS: Sydney.

Raid the Cage

I’ll give Raid the Cage credit: it can do decently in a good time slot. But CBS needs shows that can do well in their own time slots. Maybe Raid the Cage is cheap enough that it can get such low ratings, as it also did on Fridays last fall, have a minimal streaming presence, and still get renewed. I’d argue CBS will still want to try for better. It gets downgraded to Likely Cancel this week. A renewal will come down to just how cheap the show is to produce, as it’s not really doing all that much better than even drama reruns would do in the time slot.

CBS does have an overall deal with Damon Wayans Jr. In the event they cancel both Raid the Cage and Poppa’s House, it’s likely he’ll have another project in the pipeline.

Poll

Interactive Schedule

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	The Neighborhood	Poppa’s House	NCIS	NCIS: Origins
Tues	FBI		FBI: International	FBI: Most Wanted
Wed	Hollywood Squares		The Price Is Right At Night	Raid The Cage
Thurs	Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage	Ghosts	Matlock	Elsbeth
Fri	NCIS: Sydney		Fire Country	S.W.A.T.
Sun	Tracker		Watson	The Equalizer