This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, veteran comedy The Rookie finally takes the spotlight, and it's good news. Plus, a spinoff for another ABC drama solidifies its chances at another season.
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
Doctor Odyssey (0.29, 0.22-0.40)
Leans Renewal:
The Rookie (0.28, 0.22-0.34)
Already Ending:
The Conners
Already Renewed:
Abbott Elementary
High Potential
The Rookie: I was pretty sure this show would be canceled when I made my pre-season predictions, with most ABC dramas failing to make it past seven seasons in recent years. Last season saw two shows of the sort canceled with minimal notice a bit before their seventh seasons premiered - Station 19 and The Good Doctor. In the case of Station 19, it was fully owned by ABC, while The Good Doctor (which was announced just a month before the premiere) was a co-production with Sony. The Rookie is in a similar situation to The Good Doctor, a co-production with Lionsgate (and formerly airing in the same time slot). As time has gone by, though, I'm starting to think its renewal chances are higher than I originally estimated them to be. For one, The Rookie's streaming performance this season has been very strong, hitting its highest L+7 multiplatform ratings in several years. Renewal decisions are not always based on ratings, but rather on financial reasons, which is why I thought it would end this season to begin with, as negotiations last season were said to be very difficult. Talks can always go sideways and lead to a cancellation, but I'm beginning to expect that they'll be able to work out another season again. ABC has generally, as in the case of both Station 19 and The Good Doctor last season, given its veteran shows some form of a pre-announced ending, rather than simply canceling them. That is not always the case, Nathan Fillion's own show Castle was canceled outright in May nearly ten years ago, and The Goldbergs was canceled soon after wrapping its finale in 2023. That's why I still can't feel too confident about a renewal for The Rookie at this point. However, The Rookie is performing better on streaming than The Goldbergs (which was entirely unowned), and comparatively better in linear ratings than Castle (which was averaging just 75% of the league average back in its final season). The Rookie was doing pretty poorly at 10 PM during its last few weeks in the slot, hitting new series lows two weeks in a row, but it looks OK at 9 PM so far, with a 0.31 debut. Will Trent is a decent lead-in, and The Rookie held most of it. High Potential was stronger, but asking an aging veteran that was getting 0.2s just weeks ago to stack up to the season's new breakout drama is too much to ask. The Rookie did rise quite a bit from how it was performing at 10 PM, and was only a few hundredths below High Potential's low at 9 PM. In general, The Rookie is an OK linear ratings performer and a strong multiplatform ratings performer, so it has a clear argument for another season. At this point, I do expect a renewal for another season, possibly for an even shorter final midseason run. Also working it The Rookie's favor at this point is that we've heard nothing about development for the spinoff that was said to be in development back in December. When I heard about it at first, I assumed it would be a replacement for The Rookie, so ABC could keep the franchise going at a lower cost. I still think that's possible, but it seems more likely to premiere in the 2026-27 season. If ABC takes active steps to develop that spinoff for next season, that might be a warning bell for The Rookie, as I don't expect to see two Rookie series airing at once on an ABC that has made clear steps to reduce their overall number of scripted offerings. As of now, it's not something for The Rookie to worry about, and it is upgraded to LEANS RENEWAL, with signs pointing towards the show being the first ABC drama to surpass seven seasons since Nathan Fillion's own Castle.
9-1-1: Speaking of spinoffs, 9-1-1! This show hasn't aired in months, so I don't have any ratings-related news to discuss, but there has still been a big 9-1-1 development since then. Last week, ABC announced their first series order of the 2025-26 season, picking up 9-1-1: Nashville straight to series. It's the first 9-1-1 spinoff during its ABC run, and its second overall. Only time will tell how that show actually performs, but it is nevertheless an indication that ABC sees the value in the 9-1-1 franchise. That's not much of a shock at all, seeing how well 9-1-1 still performs on streaming and internationally, even as linear ratings cool down a bit. I anticipate the two 9-1-1s to air together next season. 9-1-1 is most likely closer to the end of its run than the beginning, and Nashville is probably being eyed as a potential replacement in the somewhat-distant future, similar to how CBS premiered Young Sheldon behind The Big Bang Theory, kept them together for two seasons, and then slid Sheldon to 8 PM to replace its parent series. 9-1-1 is fine for now, and this spinoff is a very encouraging sign for its renewal odds (not that it needed a boost in that regard), but I wouldn't be shocked to see ABC consider replacing it with a lower-cost option after season ten or eleven if Nashville turns out to be a success. That's a worry for another day, though, and it remains a CERTAIN RENEWAL.
Interactive Schedule:
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Bachelor | The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives | ||||
| Tues | Will Trent | High Potential | The Rookie | |||
| Wed | Shifting Gears | Abbott Elementary | Celebrity Jeopardy! | What Would You Do? | ||
| Thurs | Extreme Makeover: Home Edition | Scamanda | Perfect Wife | |||
| Fri | Shark Tank | 20/20 | ||||
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
