Below are the Week 15 predictions for CBS Renew/Cancel, followed by an analysis. Underneath that is a poll and an interactive schedule, where you can create and share your own predictions. Let me know what you think in the comments!
Key
Week 15 Predictions
S.W.A.T.
S.W.A.T.’s debut in the Fridays at 10 pm time slot was nothing to write home about. In fact, S.W.A.T. hit a new series low with a 0.24 Live + Same Day Adults 18-49 rating. That was also below all but one airing of Blue Bloods in the same time slot. While not the ratings start the show would like to start off with in the 10 pm slot, there is still hope for a ninth season.
First, S.W.A.T’s retention from Fire Country wasn’t too far off from that of Blue Bloods — 80% vs 88% — a feat it presumably achieved at a much lower cost. After several weeks of reruns, CBS opted to air what ended up being a low-rated special at 8 pm. Both Fire Country and S.W.A.T. have a good chance to rise a bit in the coming weeks.
Second, Sony has a history of doing whatever it takes to keep their shows on the air. We’ve already seen it happen multiple times with S.W.A.T. It is a rare example of a show that survived the Sunday night death slot, even as one of the lowest-rated shows on the schedule. Then it moved to Fridays, got canceled despite having a surprisingly solid season, then subsequently uncanceled and renewed for a short final season, then ultimately renewed again for a full eighth season. It would be surprising, though not out of the question, if Sony’s ability to keep S.W.A.T. on the air suddenly dried up when they previously landed it a pre-announced final season.
The bottom line is Sony will make the licensing fee as low as they need to for CBS to renew S.W.A.T., provided Sony can still make a profit. S.W.A.T. also has a Netflix deal, something Sony will keep in mind as they negotiate with CBS. CBS will keep in mind that even if mid-0.2s aren’t great, they’re probably the best the network will be able to do in the Fridays at 10 pm time slot. For these reasons, S.W.A.T. remains as Leans Renew.
Elsbeth
Not much has changed for CBS’s dramedy Elsbeth recently. Its linear ratings are still poor, and it is still one of the highest-rated shows on television when you factor in streaming viewership. This is the type of show that could probably do much better in an earlier time slot, but it’s doubtful CBS would dare try with linear ratings this low.
The fact Elsbeth even airs on CBS arguably says a lot about the current state of Paramount+. The Good Fight lasted six seasons as a streaming original. It would make sense for a spinoff of The Good Fight to also have its audience be predominantly on streaming. With few exceptions though, Paramount+ isn’t providing shows with the audience they need in order to succeed — hence a show like Elsbeth airing on CBS. Sure, it’s also a spinoff of CBS’s The Good Wife, but that show ended nearly nine years ago and also had plenty of time to grow an audience on Paramount+.
It’s doubtful Paramount Global would pass up a third season of Elsbeth, if only for its strong streaming performance. Airing on CBS would allow it the extra eyeballs and ad revenue needed to be profitable. Skydance may or may not have a different opinion. If they prioritize the linear schedule, Elsbeth is extremely unlikely to return to CBS in its current capacity. I wouldn’t take off the table it becoming a Paramount+ exclusive in that scenario, with perhaps a summer run on CBS thrown into the mix. However, if Skydance lets Paramount Global operate CBS the way they have been doing, Elsbeth is likely here to stay. Evening those out keeps it in the Leans Renew category. It joins S.W.A.T. as a show with a renewal prediction despite being on the lower end of CBS’s linear ratings.
Poll
Interactive Schedule
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Neighborhood | Poppa’s House | NCIS | NCIS: Origins | |
| Tues | FBI | FBI: International | FBI: Most Wanted | ||
| Wed | Hollywood Squares | The Price Is Right At Night | Raid The Cage | ||
| Thurs | Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage | Ghosts | Matlock | Elsbeth | |
| Fri | NCIS: Sydney | Fire Country | S.W.A.T. | ||
| Sun | Tracker | Watson | The Equalizer | ||
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Tilts Renew
Tilts Cancel
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled