CBS Renew/Cancel Week 17: Watson Needs Sherlock

The Ratings Junkie

Below are the Week 17 predictions for CBS Renew/Cancel, followed by an analysis. Underneath that is an analysis, poll, and interactive schedule where you can create and share your own predictions. Let me know what you think in the comments!

Prediction Changes

-Elsbeth is upgraded from Leans Renew to Renewed

-Fire Country is upgraded from Certain Renew to Renewed

-Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage is upgraded from Certain Renew to Renewed

-Ghosts is upgraded from Certain Renew to Renewed

-Hollywood Squares is upgraded from Likely Renew to Renewed
-NCIS is upgraded from Likely Renew to Renewed

-NCIS: Origins is upgraded from Leans Renew to Renewed

-NCIS: Sydney is upgraded from Tilts Renew to Renewed

-Poppa’s House is downgraded from Leans Cancel to Likely Cancel

-S.W.A.T. is downgraded from Leans Renew to Likely Cancel

-Tracker is upgraded from Certain Renew to Renewed

-Watson is downgraded from Leans Renew to Leans Cancel

Prediction Key

Week 17 Predictions

S.W.A.T.

S.W.A.T. has defied the odds several times to get to where it is now. It was moved to the Sunday night death slot in its fifth season, canceled after its sixth, subsequently uncanceled and renewed for a short final season, and now airing a full eighth season. While the midseason time slot downgrade to 10 pm could be taken as an ominous sign, I’ve argued a move to said time slot could actually extend S.W.A.T.’s life as they gradually make Fridays a night dedicated to the Fire Country franchise. Plus, after cheating death so many times, it’s hard to really bet against S.W.A.T.

My main argument for a renewal for S.W.A.T. came to a grinding halt this past week when CBS ordered to series Boston Blue, a spinoff of Blue Bloods. Given CBS went out of their way to turn one of their lesser-known projects in development into a Blue Bloods spinoff and order it straight to series, it’s doubtful the network waits past fall to put it on the air. It’s also doubtful Boston Blue airs anywhere other than the Fridays at 10 pm time slot long occupied by Blue Bloods.

That would put S.W.A.T. on the move yet again should it be renewed for a ninth season. Making things worse for S.W.A.T., fellow Friday shows NCIS: Sydney and Fire Country were both renewed shortly after the series order for Boston Blue. Adding Sheriff Country into the mix and you have four shows in serious contention for Friday time slots before you even get to S.W.A.T. Combine all this with the fact S.W.A.T.’s ratings have declined since the move to the later hour, and it plummets to a Likely Cancel prediction this week.

It’s still quite possible Sony manages to work out a deal with CBS to keep S.W.A.T. on the air. Plus, CBS could always make a bold schedule move and move Fire and Sheriff Country off of Friday nights, opening up another time slot on Fridays. It’s much more likely though that CBS canceled S.W.A.T. twice for a reason, and they’re about to do it a third time in the name of Boston Blue. I would not be surprised to see it shopped to other buyers, such as Netflix, who has non-exclusive streaming rights, or AMC Networks, who airs it in syndication on We TV.

Watson

Watson made its time slot premiere against Saturday Night Live’s 50th anniversary special, potentially leading to ratings lower than what is is capable of. While it may rebound without the live event competition, its retention out of Tracker was lackluster at best, with a 0.26 Adults 18-49 Live + Same Day rating out of Tracker’s 0.36, and 4.3 million viewers compared to Tracker’s 6.5 million. It certainly didn’t do enough to warrant an early renewal, as it was left out of CBS’s mass renewal this past week. Sure, it would be awfully early to renew Watson, but there is recent precedent. Fellow new drama Matlock was renewed for its second season after just one in-time-slot airing. Watson is also receiving similar scheduling to the first season of Tracker, which got renewed after three in-time-slot airings. Watson could well bounce back, but has not started off on the right path. It gets downgraded from Leans Renew to Leans Cancel.

The Equalizer

Like with S.W.A.T., CBS has downgraded The Equalizer’s time slot and watched the ratings go down with it. The Equalizer also made its time slot premiere last Sunday, and is the latest show to take over the Sunday night death slot. Its retention from Watson was solid, notching a 0.23 demo rating out of Watson’s 0.26, with nearly 3.7 million viewers compared to Watson’s roughly 4.3 million. The problem for The Equalizer is it has little room to fall, given Watson is already on the lower end. Its chances for renewal arguably have not improved, and arguably depend on how determined NBCUniversal is to get the show they produce to a syndication-friendly 88 episodes.

The Neighborhood and Poppa’s House

The Neighborhood and Poppa’s House hold several distinctions right now. They are the only CBS comedies (granted, of the four) yet to be renewed. They are the only 8 pm shows yet to be renewed. And outside of the brand new Watson, they are the only shows fully owned by Paramount that have yet to be renewed.

With the entirety of the Thursday lineup renewed along with the both NCIS spinoffs, I think it’s safe to take a comedy expansion off the table. That alone almost certainly dooms at least one of The Neighborhood and Poppa’s House. CBS could renew both of them and not pick up any of their sitcom pilots, but they’re clearly not in any rush to do so.

Renewals for The Neighborhood and Poppa’s House likely depend on how CBS feels about their comedy development. They could plausibly order The Neighborhood’s spinoff to series to try to replace either one of the existing series should the backdoor pilot rate well. They could also renew The Neighborhood for one final season and use it to launch a brand new comedy, either Zarna or DMV.

There’s also the question of if the Monday comedy hour stays intact at all. While both NCIS: Sydney and NCIS: Origins are two of CBS’s three lowest-rated scripted shows in linear ratings, CBS could be tempted to finally build an all-NCIS night. The Neighborhood and Poppa’s House were also CBS’s two least-watched series in 35-day multi-platform viewing through their first few episodes of the season. NCIS: Sydney’s 7 million viewer estimate in MP+35 viewership is roughly in line with the 6.4 million viewers for the first two episodes of The Neighborhood in the first 35 days, and the 7.5 million viewers who watched the first two episodes of Poppa’s House. NCIS (10.4 million) and NCIS: Origins (9.2 million) easily eclipse all three. CBS has to consider that an all-drama night would likely do better in multi-platform viewership than another season of The Neighborhood and Poppa’s House.

If history tells us anything, CBS is unlikely to air more than five new shows in the fall, and they’ve already ordered three. This season could be different. Paramount is about to be acquired by Skydance, and CBS’s development is spinoff-heavy — even more so than the season their only new fall dramas were new NCIS, CSI, and FBI installments. CBS could have up to five spinoffs on their fall schedule that we know of, with one of The Neighborhood being among them.

Ultimately, if either comedy squeaks out a renewal for the sake of not wanting to premiere too many shows in the fall, it will almost certainly be The Neighborhood. The characters of Marty and Malcolm would likely be written out in a cost-saving measure regardless of if their spinoff is ordered to series. The rest of the cast would likely face salary reductions or episodic guarantee reductions. Poppa’s House being left out of the mass renewal is a terrible sign for the fully owned freshman comedy, leading to its downgrade to Likely Cancel.

If CBS thinks one of “Marty & Malcolm,” DMV, or Zarna has the potential to perform on the level of the Thursday comedies with multi-platform viewership accounted for, they could just renew The Neighborhood for a final season to provide a launchpad on the linear schedule. Otherwise, we may be looking at a Monday night without sitcoms. After being left out of the mass renewal, now-unlikely scenario is “Marty & Malcolm” sliding into the 8 pm time slot with Poppa’s House returning at 8:30.

Takeaway from the Mass Renewal

Rather unexpectedly, CBS renewed nine shows this past week. All nine shows were predicted to be renewed, by various levels of confidence. These renewals confirm that Live + Same Day ratings simply don’t matter as much as they did in the past. Among the early renewals were CBS’s three lowest-rated shows in the Adults 18-49 demo: NCIS: Origins, NCIS: Sydney, and Elsbeth. All are also below the median in Live + Same Day viewership among scripted series on CBS, with Origins in second-to-last place. Meanwhile, CBS boasts Origins is up 72% in streaming from NCIS: Hawai’i, while Elsbeth notches over 11 million viewers in 35-day multi-platform viewing. That’s more than NCIS, Ghosts, and Fire Country. Live + Same Day ratings still matter to some extent — they are a good indicator of the Commercial + 3 Day ratings that determine linear ad revenue — but their relevance for predicting renewals and cancelations have clearly dwindled.

Poll

Interactive Schedule

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	The Neighborhood	Poppa’s House	NCIS	NCIS: Origins
Tues	FBI		FBI: International	FBI: Most Wanted
Wed	Hollywood Squares		The Price Is Right At Night	Raid The Cage
Thurs	Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage	Ghosts	Matlock	Elsbeth
Fri	NCIS: Sydney		Fire Country	S.W.A.T.
Sun	Tracker		Watson	The Equalizer