ABC Renew/Cancel Week 12: Will Trent Will Persevere

This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, I take a look at one of several shows on the network that took a major hit last week, and assess whether linear declines change my view of its renewal chances.

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:
N/A

Leans Cancellation:
Doctor Odyssey (0.29, 0.22-0.40)
The Rookie (0.30, 0.23-0.34)

Leans Renewal
N/A

Likely Renewal:
Grey's Anatomy (0.24, 0.19-0.31)
Shifting Gears (0.47, 0.38-0.66)

Certain Renewal:
9-1-1 (0.39, 0.31-0.47)
Will Trent (0.42, 0.30-0.50)

Already Ending:
The Conners

Renewed:
Abbott Elementary
High Potential

Will Trent: Last week, Will Trent's growth came to a screeching halt, four episodes into its third season on ABC. While all three shows on ABC took a hit (down 27% week-to-week), Will Trent perhaps looked the worst, as it's tasked with starting off the night, and barely put ABC ahead of NBC and Fox at 8, dropping 29%. While it dropped the previous two weeks, those were much smaller declines, and dropping more than a whole tenth is not a great look. This is the first episode this season down from the corresponding episode from season two, nearly matching last year's series lows. While its early growth was indeed impressive, the show is settling back into the mediocre territory it was familiar with last season. Its Hulu performance is also seemingly declining, as it's no longer consistently in their top 15 TV chart, as it was in the first three weeks of the season. It was already the MP+7 performers of this ABC Tuesday lineup, with a 1.23 in the demo for its season premiere (High Potential managed a 2.44, and The Rookie a 1.91). In total viewers, it's a bit better, pulling ahead of The Rookie, mainly thanks to having over two million more linear viewers than The Rookie. In other words, Will Trent is not a breakout, runaway hit. It does OK, it doesn't embarrass itself, but it's not on the level of High Potential or 9-1-1. However, I would really be pretty shocked if it didn't return. A network can't only renew their hits, they need these sort of reliable, OK performers, shows that aren't breakouts but do well enough. There are several ABC shows performing worse, and many aged shows that have to be on their way out in the near future. I don't know if Will Trent will be a tentpole show for ABC, and it could end up in a worse slot next time around, but it's a good utility player for ABC that they've spent several years investing in. That it kept its 8 PM slot this season after a so-so showing last season is a pretty positive indicator of how much they like it. Last week's drop is concerning, and I may have to reassess if it continues to bottom out, especially once the lineup is switched up after High Potential ends. However, for now, it looks like a lock, and even though I do think perhaps I upgraded it a bit too early, I'm keeping it as a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

High Potential: Speaking of High Potential, ABC renewed their breakout hit series two weeks ago, just a day after I handed it an overdue upgrade to certain renewal status. ABC is very lucky to have found such a strong new show, and this is a correct prediction.

Abbott Elementary: Another correct prediction is Abbott Elementary, which has been labeled a certain renewal all season. Despite some ratings woes behind the incompatible Golden Bachelorette, the show has maintained strong ratings on streaming, and has returned to a higher level once paired back up with another sitcom.


Interactive Schedule:


The TV Ratings Guide 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00
Mon The Bachelor The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives
Tues Will Trent High Potential The Rookie
Wed Shifting Gears Abbott Elementary Celebrity Jeopardy! What Would You Do?
Thurs Extreme Makeover: Home Edition Scamanda Perfect Wife
Fri Shark Tank 20/20
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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