After a few weeks off, the ABC Renew/Cancel is back with a prediction shift for one series, as well as a further look for another that seems to be on the upswing after a sudden downturn.
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
Doctor Odyssey (0.29, 0.22-0.40)
The Rookie (0.28, 0.22-0.34)
Leans Renewal:
N/A
Already Ending:
The Conners
Renewed:
Abbott Elementary
High Potential
Shifting Gears: After its blockbuster debut, I expressed caution over Shifting Gears' future ratings, fearing it wouldn't be able to live up to the high bar it set for itself, and knowing the trajectory of Last Man Standing during its runs on both ABC and Fox. It immediately dropped nearly three tenths in the next week, to a 0.38, which was pretty concerning. However, the show was delayed that night by the former president's farewell address, so I didn't want to jump the gun and assume this meant that the show would keep hemorrhaging viewers. I'm glad I didn't, because it's been pretty much smooth sailing since then. The show rebounded a bit the week after that, and 0.38 remains its series low. While its current 0.4s don't quite live up to the promise it showed in its premiere, it's been very stable, and its current ratings are strong enough to make it ABC's highest-rated scripted show in the 18-49 average. Its performance on Hulu does seem to be declining a bit, but its premiere was also very strong in streaming, with ABC touting it as a record audience for them on streaming, with almost 17 million viewers between ABC and Disney-owned streaming platforms, and a 2.43 demo rating. Even if it's cooled off since then, it's very likely that it is still performing very respectably, similar to its ABC ratings, with ratings still obviously renewable. Shifting Gears only has four episodes left in its freshman season, and will air just two of them after daylight saving time begins, so it will get to mostly avoid the spring ratings declines that plague broadcast shows, particularly ones at 8 PM. Its ratings average is very likely to remain among the top comedies on broadcast, and towards the top on ABC as well. Six weeks in, this show has proven itself as a solid performer, and it will definitely be back. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.
Will Trent: Another show that started surprisingly strong this season was Will Trent, which debuted to a series-high 0.50 in January. Despite that, it took me a bit of time to upgrade it, as I was worried it would drop pretty hard from that point, and then it did indeed drop - one week after I upgraded it. Since that decline, Will Trent's been back on the rise. While its recent 0.39 isn't quite as high as it was during those first three weeks, it's a solid rating that was enough to earn the show second place on Tuesday night, trailing only its lead-out, High Potential. After its original drop from solid 0.4s to a 0.30, I said that I was keeping my prediction the same, but would be open to reassessing down the line if it kept dropping. So far, we're not seeing signs of further slippage, and the bit of growth we've seen has been encouraging. I remain very confident in a CERTAIN RENEWAL prediction.
Interactive Schedule:
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Bachelor | The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives | ||||
| Tues | Will Trent | High Potential | The Rookie | |||
| Wed | Shifting Gears | Abbott Elementary | Celebrity Jeopardy! | What Would You Do? | ||
| Thurs | Extreme Makeover: Home Edition | Scamanda | Perfect Wife | |||
| Fri | Shark Tank | 20/20 | ||||
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
