Certain Cancellation:
Brilliant Minds (0.23, 0.17-0.29)
The Irrational (0.18, 0.10-0.31)
Leans Cancellation:
Found (0.22, 0.18-0.29)
Leans Renewal:
N/A
Likely Renewal:
Chicago Med (0.40, 0.33-0.46)
Happy's Place (0.27, 0.21-0.35)
Law & Order (0.30, 0.25-0.36)
Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.40, 0.35-0.46)
Chicago PD (0.36, 0.30-0.48)
Law & Order: SVU (0.37, 0.29-0.49)
Saturday Night Live (0.77, 0.55-1.24)
Yet to Premiere:
Grosse Pointe Garden Society
The Hunting Party
Suits: LA
Renewed:
St. Denis Medical
Lopez vs Lopez: Last week, Lopez vs Lopez soared to a new season high, hitting a 0.28 in the key demo after a 0.31 showing from Happy's Place. That season high, with 90% retention of its lead-in, sure made Lopez look renewable for a moment. Unfortunately, the reality of the situation isn't quite so positive. This was, indeed, a solid performance. It nearly doubled Night Court's performance from last week, and narrowly topped the already-renewed St. Denis Medical, while airing at the bottom of the hour on Friday. Still, a single performance does not make or break a show, and Lopez has been lagging for much of the season, with a 0.20 average that makes it NBC's second-lowest-rated show. I don't think Lopez is a ratings disaster or anything, as it is still capable of having a strong showing every now and then, but it's not consistent, and it's been given many chances to prove itself. The show is currently averaging 74% of Happy's Place's average, which isn't enough when Happy's Place itself is only a so-so performer on most nights. Most damningly, NBC itself seems far from impressed with how Lopez has been performing. As I mentioned in the past, the network only ordered thirteen episodes this season, despite a previous order for three additional scripts towards the beginning of the season. Those scripts weren't ordered, while Happy's Place did get an extension. Reba's freshman comedy was picked up for five more episodes, and will air those episodes with repeats. A network preferring to order repeats over new episodes of a show that they clearly have space to air is a very bad sign. I think last week's Lopez bump is too little, too late. A decision has likely already been made about this show, and all the signs are pointing towards that decision being a cancellation. It's defied the odds in the past, which makes it hard to fully count it out, but I don't think it'll be so luck this time. It's a LIKELY CANCELLATION.
Night Court: Last week was an utter disaster for Night Court, with the NBC revival/reboot sliding to a series low 0.15, the lowest rating for any comedy on NBC this season, and one of the lowest ratings for any big three show this season overall. Due in part to that precipitous decline, I downgraded Night Court. This week, the show rebounded to a 0.24 in the demo. That's nearly a full tenth higher than the previous week, and right in line with its season average. However, I don't regret my decision to downgrade the show. That 0.24 is still lower than anything it got last season, and we've got ten episodes left to go this season, so it still has plenty of time left to drop lower again. Even still, 0.24 isn't all that impressive, not when its lead-in also rose to a 0.31. Lopez vs Lopez got a 0.28 just days before when it had a 0.31 lead-in, so Night Court is still the lowest-rated NBC comedy from the last week. A ratings rebound is always welcome, especially after the disastrous last few Tuesdays for NBC, but the ratings that it's rebounded to are still firmly in cancellation territory. Even if the 0.15 last week was an aberration, it's still a pretty weak show, and I don't think Night Court is capable of rising enough to put itself in contention for a renewal. It's still a LIKELY CANCELLATION.
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Voice | Brilliant Minds | ||||
| Tues | St. Denis Medical | Night Court | Deal or No Deal Island | The Irrational | ||
| Wed | Chicago Med | Chicago Fire | Chicago PD | |||
| Thurs | Law & Order | Law & Order: SVU | Found | |||
| Fri | Happy's Place | Lopez vs Lopez | Dateline NBC | |||
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
