On Wednesdays, I am taking a look at the major Emmy categories before nominations are revealed in July. Here's a look at the Lead Actor and Actress in a Limited/Anthology Series or TV Movie categories. As mentioned with the Supporting categories, it's a weird and weak year for Limited Series that makes it hard to predict but here's a try!
LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED/ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE
Like all the Limited Series races this year, things feel pretty unsettled. The leading contender at the moment might be Matthew Rhys for The Beast in Me. Even though Beast received mixed reviews, it was well-watched and Rhys is having a moment now for Widow's Bay. It would be ironic, but not entirely unlikely, that he gets in for this performance and not his much better received Widow's performance. Beef isn't quite as strong a contender as many thought it would be but in a weak field, I still think it could pick up a slew of nominations including Oscar Isaac in this category.
The early frontrunner, perhaps by default, was Charlie Hunnam for Monster: The Ed Gein Story. Now many are still predicting Hunnam to get in even if the series doesn't. Despite the mixed reviews, I'm pretty bullish on Hunnam getting nominated given how the Monster series has done for other installments. Like The Beast in Me, Monster and Beef, Black Rabbit only received mixed reviews but it's on Netflix so it's probably better seen than a lot of competitors. That, coupled with Jason Bateman's general Emmy strength, could get him in while his co-star, Jude Law, is much less likely. I feel less confident about Michael Shannon or Matthew Macfadyen's chances for Death by Lightning even though that show received better reviews.
HBO made an interesting call to run Jamie Bell and Mitchell Robertson in Lead for Half Man while putting Richard Gadd in Featured. People seemed very mixed on Half Man but Bell's performance was praised, if enough people saw it. If he manages to get into the field, I think he could be win-competitive. Robertson is much more of a longshot. It seems like Love Story is starting to coalesce as a legitimate contender so that probably helps Paul Anthony Kelly's chances but I'm still not convinced, especially in a field of only five.
Since there are only five slots, the drop off from contenders to longshots or dark horses happens quickly. Riz Ahmed might be one of the few in-betweeners as Bait didn't make much of a splash but did have some critical support. Jon Bernthal is another of those well-seen, poorly-reviewed Netflix stars for His & Hers but I don't think it's happening for him despite his Emmy love for The Bear. It's barely worth mentioning the TV movie names because they never get in but if anyone does, it would be Lewis Pullman for Remarkably Bright Creatures.
A few very long-shot contenders include Jason Momoa for Chief of War, Jason Clarke for Murdaugh: Death in the Family and Winston Sawyers for Lord of the Flies.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. Matthew Rhys, The Beast in Me
2. Oscar Isaac, Beef
3. Charlie Hunnam, Monster: The Ed Gein Story
4. Jamie Bell, Half Man
5. Paul Anthony Kelly, Love Story
Just Behind
6. Jason Bateman, Black Rabbit
7. Michael Shannon, Death by Lightning
8. Riz Ahmed, Bait
LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED/ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE
There are only five slots available here as well and there's another slew of popular actresses in shows that received mixed reviews at the top. The safest bet seems to be Claire Danes, who is no stranger to Emmy love. As I mentioned above, The Beast in Me was well-watched even though it didn't get a lot of positive reviews and that's probably going to be enough. Next up is probably Sarah Snook. It gives me pause to put her in the second position because Peacock really struggles to get Emmy nominations, but I think this show did well enough and Snook is a big enough name that she will get in.
Similar to Jamie Bell in Actor, Sarah Pidgeon seems like she'll be win competitive as long as she actually gets in. Despite the ickiness some people feel about Love Story, Pidgeon's performance was generally praised so I do think she'll make it in. I am also fairly sure Carey Mulligan gets in for Beef but I am worried that I am overvaluing the strength of Beef. As mentioned above, TV Movies almost never get anyone in but that could change with Sally Field's well-received performance in Remarkably Bright Creatures. We have been down this road before though with TV Movie performances so I'll believe it when I see it.
Kerry Washington has certainly been an Emmy darling before so despite the muted reception to Imperfect Women, she could certainly get in. Meanwhile, The Girlfriend seems to a be a little show that has looked a little better when more shows came out to mixed reviews so I wouldn't totally count out Robin Wright from sneaking into the last slot. Despite it really being a two-hander, it doesn't look like her co-star Olivia Cooke has much of a chance. While I felt like His & Hers wasn't strong enough for Jon Bernthal to get in, the Actress field is a little bit lighter so Tessa Thompson has a clearer path though she's probably still on the outside looking in right now. There's a case to be made for Camila Morrone for Something Very Bad is Going to Happen but I don't think she actually gets in.
After that, we're really talking about longshots. That includes Lili Reinhart for Hal & Harper, Allison Janney for Miss You, Love You (another TV movie), Patricia Arquette for Murdaugh: Death in the Family and Rachel Weisz for Vladimir.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. Claire Danes, The Beast in Me
2. Sarah Snook, All Her Fault
3. Sarah Pidgeon, Love Story
4. Carey Mulligan, Beef
5. Kerry Washington, Imperfect Women
Just Behind
6. Robin Wright, The Girlfriend
7. Sally Field, Remarkably Bright Creatures
8. Tessa Thompson, His & Hers
Next Week: The Series Races!
