Predicting the 2016-17 Ratings: CW Fall Veterans

Since The CW doesn't have a whole lot of shows, I'm breaking this into two segments instead of three: one for veteran fall shows and one for new shows/midseason shows.

Supergirl just came from CBS, and while it was one of their most male-skewing shows did not enjoy the younger skew that the network was looking for. Now that it's been transferred over to The CW, there's bound to be a large drop in ratings, even though it's in the same time slot. Considering it had a very front-loaded 1.68 A18-49 average this season, expect a large decline on its move to The CW. It'll still be a tremendous improvement over Crazy Ex-Girlfriend though.

Prediction: -57% to a 0.72

Jane the Virgin
Jane the Virgin is bound to get a larger lead-in this season, though will it really matter going into its
third season? They look compatible enough, but not really a match made in heaven. It was down 24% this season, and although I don't expect that big a decline this time around, it probably won't magically see a ratings rise either.

Prediction: -11% to a 0.33

The Flash
The Flash is pretty much The CW's only show that would survive on a major network with its ratings. Just like the vampire show craze, I think when viewer fatigue comes with superhero shows, The Crossovers with Berlanti's 23 other shows on The CW should stop it from falling too much.
Flash will take a major hit. I don't think that fatigue has come quite yet, but it may come soon.

Prediction: -7% to a 1.27

Arrow has been more or less stable its entire run, with the episodes this spring being around the 0.7-0.9 range. Like with The Flash, I think crossovers will help the show do well yet again next season; or at least for The CW's standards.

Prediction: -8% to a 0.86

Legends of Tomorrow
Legends of Tomorrow has done good, but not great, in its Thursday at 8 time slot. It will be in the same time slot next season and against Thursday Night Football. Most of its run was in the 0.6-0.7 range, and I expect to see more of that next season. It'll be a solid player for The CW, though not as well as Arrow or The Flash.

Prediction: -22% to a 0.62

Supernatural has been thrown all around the schedule; it's basically The CW's equivalent of Bones. It was down 11% this season, which isn't terrible considering that was around the league average decline. I don't think it'll be far-fetched to see it slightly out-rate its lead-in, though not by much. It'll improve the Thursday at 9 time slot, though the Wednesday at 9 time slot it left may be weaker.

Prediction: -7% to a 0.66

The Vampire Diaries
This is likely the final season of The Vampire Diaries, but I don't think that will lead to many old fans coming back to its show. It's way past its prime, as is the entire vampire genre, and this will be its first full season on Friday. It was down 36% this season as it is, and it won't have its spin-off as a lead-out in the fall. I'm pessimistic on this one.

Prediction: -39% to a 0.28

Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend had all 0.2s and 0.3s this season except for one 0.4. Now that it's moving to Friday with the incompatible Vampire Diaries, I can't really expect this show to grow in its second season, critical darling or not. Most shows on the Big 4 fall a hefty amount on a move to Friday; if Crazy Ex-Girlfriend did that, its ratings would be negative. As in, below a 0.0. Though that's not
possible. It can't really go down all that much, so I think its tiny live audience will more or less follow it. If it gets an Emmy nomination or even award, I fully expect it to be dragged out to 70 episodes.

Prediction: -28% to a 0.21; though, that's only down 0.08 tenths, so the -28% looks deceiving

What do you think of my predictions? Let me know in the comments below and be sure to leave your own!

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