Predicting the 2016-17 Ratings: FOX New Shows

The Ratings Junkie Friday, June 24, 2016
Now it's time to take a look into my predictions for the ratings of FOX's new shows. Read them and make sure to leave your own in the comments below!

Son of Zorn
Considering FOX still isn't using Empire as a lead-in, Son of Zorn probably has a better time slot than any other new FOX show, as it will air after football-inflated The Simpsons in the fall. It is very high-concept, which actually is on brand for a FOX comedy. The network definitely sees potential in Lord Miller Productions, though it could be too niche to appeal to a mass audience. The fact that it isn't scheduled to air in the spring should be a helping factor.

Prediction: 1.44

Lethal Weapon
Lethal Weapon is being adapted for television, and by the (early) looks of it not all that many people asked for it. FOX has a sizable slate of shows that could fit with Empire by hitting that W18-34 demographic, but Lethal Weapon probably isn't one of them. For the second season in a row, Empire is getting a super-incompatible lead-in and its monster ratings will not be put to use for anything more than the local news. I think Lethal Weapon is this season's Rosewood. Adjusted for league average declines, its average will probably be lower.

Prediction: 1.17

Pitch looks to be a very niche show about the first female MLB player. They can advertise it during baseball, but by then the show would have already started. On paper (and by watching the trailer) it seems to be very compatible with shows like Scream Queens and Empire, as it looks to be one that would do well amongst the W18-34 demographic. The problem is that it got paired with Rosewood in one of the toughest time slots on broadcast television currently. I don't see it doing all that well, though it could still be at renewable numbers and will most likely grow out of its lead-in.

Prediction: 1.05

The Exorcist
The Exorcist is another movie that FOX has adapted for television this season. I don't think it will end the streak of misses when it comes to that genre, and many have complained that the television version isn't as scary as the actual movie. People may sample it, but being on a Friday and not getting great reviews, I don't think this will do too well at all.

Prediction: 0.83

Making History
Making History is the 2nd comedy FOX picked up this season from Lord Miller Productions, and will be their third comedy overall (the other two being Son of Zorn and The Last Man On Earth). Currently scheduled Sunday at 8:30 after Son of Zorn wraps, Making History has one of the best time slots FOX can offer a comedy in the spring, though that isn't saying much at all. When taken away from football, The Simpsons' true colors are shown and it dips down to the low 1s in the all-important A18-49 demographic. Due to the time slot, I can't see this one doing well. Like most of the shows FOX has picked up, it seems too niche to catch on with a large audience.

Prediction: 0.86

The Mick
The Mick is one of the more broader shows that FOX picked up, meaning it probably will be at the lower end of the spectrum when it comes to critical praise, but will have a better chance of catching on with a live audience. FOX is giving it a chance by making New Girl its lead-in, as it appears they think it will be a draw with the W18-34 demographic. After the failures of Grandfathered and The Grinder, I'm a little bit pessimistic about new shows' survival chances on FOX Tuesdays. I think this will do OK, not great.

Prediction: 0.91

Star isn't getting much buzz at all right now, which is strange. It's a music-oriented drama with an African-American cast from Lee Daniels that looks like it will skew well with younger woman; pretty much everything that Empire is. It's actually very hard to find its trailer and its Twitter account do to the overly broad name. I expect hype for this one to rise up in the winter when they start promoting it. No way of knowing if they'll air the premiere before Empire, but I'll just assume they don't and that its average isn't artificially boosted. I think it will be a success for FOX due to Lee Daniels, though nowhere near the levels of Empire.

Prediction: 1.66

Shots Fired
Broad dramas on FOX just are not working anymore; Bones is way past its heyday in even relative ratings, Rosewood is a time slot hit (if that), and Lethal Weapon isn't bringing anything new to the table as far as I can tell so far. Flop alert.

Prediction: 0.76

I don't even know what to think about A.P.B. What it has going for it is the time slot, airing Mondays after 24: Legacy. Or so we think. Legacy could be a complete failure or a big hit, and I think this one will hinge on that. The fact that it's based in Chicago gives me the vibe that they are trying to capitalize on NBC's success with its rapidly-growing Chicago franchise, and I actually think it would be better if they set it in a different city to emphasize that there actually is a unique element about this show. They definitely seem to be giving this cop show a chance, instead of throwing it on Thursday, but this one is a complete wildcard for me. I could see it completely flopping, and I can also see it becoming a big breakout hit. I'll predict somewhere in the middle.

Prediction: 1.44

24: Legacy
As I mentioned above, 24: Legacy is another big wildcard. Last time FOX tried to revive 24 was in the summer of 2014, with ratings in the mid-high 1s, which are great for summer but sharply down from 24's final season. As this one is like 24 without Jack Bauer, viewers might not come back. Though it's guaranteed to premiere well due to premiering after the Super Bowl, that doesn't guarantee long-term success. I'll go with something a little lower than Live Another Day's average.

Prediction without the Super Bowl: 1.65

What do you think of these predictions? Leave your own in the comments below!

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