Predicting the 2016-17 Ratings: ABC New Fall Shows

Here's part two of three in the ABC portion of "Predicting the 2016-17 Ratings". I've decided to break
up the new fall shows and the new midseason shows in two different articles. Both will be incredibly hard to predict, but at least with the fall shows we know where they will be airing.

Secrets & Lies
OK, technically not a new show, but it only aired 10 episodes, took a season off, and is an anthology. It might as well be a new show. I don't think we'll be seeing the ratings that we saw in its first season given how much time it took off and its much weakened lead-in. However, it still should be a decent time slot improvement.

Prediction: -32% to a 1.02

It's hard to say what Conviction's competition will be, considering NBC is premiering new drama Timeless and CBS is shifting Scorpion into the time slot. Regardless, it should be a tough time slot. It won't be a perfect match with Dancing with the Stars, but it'll still do better than Castle. Not a breakout hit, but not a complete flop either.

Prediction: 1.27

American Housewife
American Housewife, one of two new comedy entries this fall for ABC, will be airing on a revamped Tuesday night sandwiched in between The Middle and Fresh Off The Boat. Let's call it second-tier comedy night, outside of maybe The Middle. It's not getting any hype. It'll manage better than The Real O'Neals, but its success will largely depend on how its lead-in does.

Prediction: 1.18

Speechless has much more of a chance succeeding considering it'll be airing on Wednesday. That being said, the Wednesday at 8:30 time slot isn't exactly a hit machine. It created Suburgatory's success (for a season) and grew The Goldbergs, but it was also home to flops like Family Tools and mediocre-at-best-rated shows like Back in the Game, Suburgatory Season 3, and The Neighbors. Speechless will more than likely be one of those, weakening Wednesday. We'll see what their standards are when the ad rate is released, but I think they'd be naive to expect Speechless to replicate The Goldbergs' success in this time slot.

Prediction: 1.37

Designated Survivor
Designated Survivor is by far the most anticipated ABC show this season, and possibly the most anticipated one on all of broadcast. The problem? It'll be airing at 10pm, a lower-viewed hour of television. It has its work cut out for it. It'll do OK, but not as well as a lot of people are expecting, probably premiering well and fizzling out once the election is over. Regardless, it'll be a huge improvement over Nashville.

Prediction: 1.49

On paper, Notorious has a great time slot, airing after Grey's Anatomy. I don't have data on all shows, but it's been reported that just 55% of Grey's Anatomy's Live + Same Day viewing is actually live. So its live lead-in will be in the low 1s, most likely. It'll do respectably, but it'll be hard to tell if it's enough to bump Scandal to 10pm.

Prediction: 1.46

What do you think of these predictions? Let me know + leave your own in the comments below!

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