ABC Renew/Cancel Week 19: The Goldbergs Still the Safest Part of a Declining Comedy Block

The ABC Wednesday block returned this week after a few weeks off the air, and their returns only highlighted ongoing trends for a few shows. Keep reading to see my thhoughts on The Goldbergs and The Conners, plus fellow recently-returned show The Rookie!

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:
Call Your Mother (0.4, 0.3-0.5)
For Life (0.3, 0.3-0.5)

Leans Cancellation:
Mixed-ish (0.4, 0.4-0.6)

Leans Renewal:
American Housewife (0.6, 0.4-0.6)
The Conners (0.7, 0.6-0.9)

Likely Renewal:
The Goldbergs (0.7, 0.6-0.8)
Grey's Anatomy (1.1, 0.9-1.3)
A Million Little Things (0.5, 0.4-0.7)
The Rookie (0.5, 0.4-0.6)

Certain Renewal:
Big Sky (0.6, 0.6-0.7)
Blackish (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
The Good Doctor (0.6, 0.5-0.7)
Station 19 (0.9, 0.8-1.2)

Coming Soon:
Home Economics
Women of the Movement

The Goldbergs: The long-running comedy returned last week from a weeks-long hiatus, steady at 0.6 against The Masked Singer. That's been its consistent rating pretty much all year, only going higher that that once. It's a datapoint that, while not exactly impressive, shows why the show remains valuable to ABC: at the very least, it's been relatively steady over the course of its season. Its 23% year-to-year drop isn't great, but it's certainly better than their #2 show, The Conners, which has plunged 41% so far this season. The Goldbergs is clearly nearing the end of its run, almost any show that's eight seasons into its run is closer to the end than its beginning. However, it's hard to imagine ABC simply canceling one of their legacy shows after being so valuable for so long. It remains a LIKELY RENEWAL.

The Conners: If The Goldbergs is declining, then The Conners is freefalling. The #1 comedy on all of broadcast television just a single season ago, the Roseanne offshoot hit new lows left and right this season, premiering to a 0.9 before sliding all the way to a 0.55 in its most recent episode. This is ABC's most expensive comedy, with John Goodman, Laurie Metcalf and Sara Gilbert all being paid massive amounts for a show with just so-so ratings. I don't see any way that ABC is happy with its performance on Wednesdays, and they don't even own it. A cancellation doesn't seem that likely, but I can't rule it out. It LEANS RENEWAL.

The Rookie: ABC's only Sunday night scripted show has had a rough go of it this season. Its been pulling 0.4s for much of the season, and was only briefly boosted by American Idol. In fact, its been doing worse behind the seemingly-compatible Idol than it was behind Card Sharks! Its COVID lockdown-boosted season two performance was quite impressive, but this season its shown to be just an average performer. Perhaps there's only room for one cop procedural in this slot, and NCIS: New Orleans is winning that battle. Or maybe people have just lost interest. Either way, the show isn't matching its past performance and its ratings look pretty bland in comparison to Big Sky, 20/20, and even The Good Doctor. I expect that its streaming performance and other factors will push it towards a renewal, but I can't say it's a lock to come back. It's just a LIKELY RENEWAL.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

Where would you place The Rookie?
Certain Renewal
Likely Renewal
Leans Renewal
Leans Cancellation
Likely Cancellation
Certain Cancellation

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