ABC Renew/Cancel - October 6: Ten Days in the Valley is Certain to be Canceled

Most of ABC's fall scripted series have premiered now, about half of them in the last week. Last week's premieres included four new shows: Inhumans, Ten Days in the Valley, The Mayor, and Kevin Probably Saves the World.

Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)

Certain to be Canceled
Ten Days in the Valley (0.5)

Likely to be Canceled
The Mayor (1.2)

Inhumans (0.9)
Kevin Probably Saves the World (1.0)

Likely to be Renewed
Designated Survivor (1.0, 0.9-1.1)
Fresh Off the Boat (1.4)
Speechless (1.4, 1.3-1.4)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.5, 1.4-1.6)
Black-ish (1.5)
The Good Doctor (2.2, 2.2-2.2)
Grey's Anatomy (2.2, 2.1-2.3)
How to Get Away with Murder (1.0, 0.9-1.1)

Fate Determined
The Goldbergs (RENEWED)
Modern Family (RENEWED)

Ten Days in the Valley: While Sundays at 10:00 is a difficult timeslot, a show should be able to premiere at higher than 0.5, especially with a 1.4 lead-in. This is a very weak start, and it's only the start. The question isn't will Ten Days get canceled, it's will it get to air out its full 10-episode order?

Inhumans: A 0.9 leading off Friday nights isn't bad. But how well can Inhumans hold up? If it doesn't drop much, I'll be expecting a renewal. A bigger drop will likely land it in cancelation territory. However, there is also the chance that Disney keeps ABC from canceling Inhumans, as they reportedly did with Agents of SHIELD. It's hard to say how much Disney will care, and it could be a situation where they will want at least one Marvel series to be renewed.

The Mayor: ABC's one new comedy this fall had the lowest premiere rating out of all of their comedies. In addition to this, being a new series, it is likely to drop farther from its premiere than those other shows will. It's ratings could even be not that bad, but ABC comedy is healthy and the schedule is crowded when it comes to them.

Kevin Probably Saves the World: The history of ABC's Tuesday at 10:00 timeslot is far from pretty. Forever is the only new series to not completely fail in that timeslot in many years. Kevin's premiere is stronger than that of all of those non-Forever new shows. If it holds up well, Kevin could end up scoring a renewal. If its trajectory is decent, but not great, the performance of mid-season shows could end up deciding. But, for now, this is a wait-and-see sort of a situation.

Fresh Off the Boat: I'm keeping this one away from certain to be renewed at least for now because ABC doesn't produce it, the network's comedy slate is crowded, it's not one of the network's top comedies, and with at least 82 episodes at the end of this season (assuming this season is at least 22 episodes) it probably could get sold into syndication without getting a renewal. But, it still will most likely get renewed because it's not low-rated, and 20th Century FOX might give another season to ABC at a low price because more episodes could mean a better syndication deal. I don't expect this one to go anywhere, but it's not a lock for renewal either. I would say, however, that its chances are slightly above that of Speechless.

Black-ish: Being produced by ABC, Black-ish already isn't likely to be canceled. When its award recognition and the fact that it grew from Fresh Off the Boat in its premiere are added in, it easily becomes a lock for renewal. In that certain to be renewed category, I would say it's only less certain than Grey's Anatomy and maybe The Good Doctor, which got upgraded there this week.

The Good Doctor: It is very rare for shows to hold their premiere rating in week two. With The Good Doctor doing so, it easily found its way into certain to be renewed this week.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

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