ABC Renew/Cancel - October 12: The Mayor is Likely to be Canceled

Not much is changing in my predictions this week, and only one show is joining the predictions, but we are not short on things to discuss, as there are two shows that are toss-ups, and two likely to be renewed shows that gave weaker performances this week.

Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)

Certain to be Canceled
Ten Days in the Valley (0.5, 0.4-0.5)

Likely to be Canceled
The Mayor (1.1, 1.0-1.2)

Inhumans (0.8, 0.7-0.9)
Kevin Probably Saves the World (0.9, 0.8-1.0)

Likely to be Renewed
Fresh Off the Boat (1,3, 1.1-1.4)
Once Upon a Time (0.7)
Speechless (1.3, 1.1-1.4)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.5, 1.4-1.6)
Black-ish (1.4, 1.3-1.5)
Designated Survivor (1.0, 0.9-1.1)
The Good Doctor (2.1, 2.0-2.2)
Grey's Anatomy (2.2, 2.1-2.3)
How to Get Away with Murder (1.0, 0.9-1.1)

Fate Determined
The Goldbergs (RENEWED)
Modern Family (RENEWED)

The Mayor: ABC's only new comedy this fall took a two-tenth drop in week two, and considering that its lead-in did the same, it isn't a bad week two result. However, at 1.0, it is still the lowest-rated of ABC's comedies this week, and while Fresh Off the Boat and Speechless were only a tenth higher in better timeslots, as a new show The Mayor is more likely to fall more (plus this Speechless result is in week three, not two). The Mayor is still likely to be canceled, but not quite as likely as it was last week.

Once Upon a Time: With its renewal last season, it was revealed that Once Upon a Time makes ABC a lot of money through a deal with Netflix (The Hollywood Reporter reported it was in the eight figure range). Due to this deal, the show's ratings would have to go really low for me to predict cancelation. So, with it premiering at 0.7 on Friday, I wouldn't consider it to be in any danger unless it has a bad trajectory.

Designated Survivor: Week three stability is a positive sign for Designated Survivor. The ABC drama department is struggling. Aside from Grey's Anatomy, The Good Doctor, and the ending Scandal, they don't have much. Designated Survivor appears to be stabilizing at 0.9, which should be plenty good enough for renewal, especially for a show that ABC produces and will have two full seasons this spring.

Kevin Probably Saves the World: After premiering with a mediocre result in a timeslot with a bad history last week, Kevin took a fairly typical week two dip this week to 0.8. That rating isn't great, but it isn't that bad either considering ABC's drama troubles and the long list of shows that have failed on Tuesdays at 10:00. So, I'm not moving Kevin yet, since stability from here on could still earn it a renewal.

Inhumans: Stability from here could also be the key for Inhumans, whose fate is even more unsure than Kevin's because we don't know if Disney will pressure ABC into a renewal here like they reportedly did for Agents of SHIELD last year. ABC clearly doesn't care for the show, as evidenced by having it debut on Friday and hardly promoting it. So, I won't ever be certain on its fate, but I will use its performance from here on to decide which way I think it's leaning.

Speechless: The potential that Speechless showed last year, when it would consistently fall two tenths from its Goldbergs lead-in, seems to be gone now, as this week it gave its weakest performance yet. I'm getting more unsure on its fate. Since it is still performing decently, and having two full seasons already could motivate 20th Century FOX (the show's primary production company) to push for a renewal, I am still predicting renewal, but we are only three weeks into the season. Things could go south from here.

Fresh Off the Boat: ABC's Tuesday at 8:30 comedy is in a similar boat to the Wednesday one of the same timeslot, though that timeslot is better on Wednesday than Tuesday, so expectations aren't quite as high. Additionally, if the 82-84 episodes that it will have at the end of the season aren't enough for 20th Century FOX to sell the show into syndication, they will almost certainly give a fifth season of the show to ABC for cheap.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

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