It was an exciting week on CBS, as the network debuted two new series, including the spinoff of one of the most popular shows in recent memory. Keep reading to see where Marshals and America's Culinary Cup will debut, plus how Watson has handled its move back to Sundays and how CIA held up in its second week.
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Week 16 Predictions:
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| Shows' 18-49 demo average and weekly peak performance on Paramount+ are listed in parenthesis |
Marshals: There's really no other way to spin it: Marshals was a huge success for CBS on premiere night, with a 0.67 debut. That's the highest rating for a scripted series on CBS this season, and the highest rating for any show on broadcast this season outside of episodes boosted by football. It did so with a 0.37 lead-in. While moving Tracker to 9 PM may not have been the safest option, it was a smart move that has really paid off - so far, at least. This is an excellent duo that will ride out the season together, though the initial success of Marshals may lead to some uncomfortable conversations about the unowned veteran Tracker, which may need to move off its longtime night, especially if Marshals continues to perform well enough to warrant launching a new Yellowstone spinoff - something they'll have to hurry to do, as they'll be losing Taylor Sheridan (the creator of Yellowstone and EP of Marshals) to NBCUniversal by 2028. While we don't know now whether they'll try to expand the Yellowstone franchise a bit further on CBS, it's a guarantee that they'll be renewing Marshals beyond this season. While it may lose some of that premiere rating once the curiosity factor wears off, it's so far ahead of almost everything else on CBS that it has plenty of room to drop and still be incredibly safe. It's obviously a certain renewal, and it just might be CBS's great new hope after a dismal season in the ratings.
Watson: Airing on Sundays at 10 is never really seen as an ideal time slot, and I sure don't think it was meant to be a vote of confidence when CBS initially scheduled it there last May, or even when they announced it was moving there when they announced their midseason schedule. However, it has proven to be a major time slot upgrade from where it was airing. Tracker is a clear improvement on the FBI lead-in, and while FBI and CIA are a natural pair (seeing how CIA has thus far out-rated Watson in that slot), putting the seemingly-dead Watson behind the hit Tracker is an odd decision. It did result in what was by far a season high for Watson, though that was just a 0.26 - below most of last seasons's ratings, and just 55% of its lead-in. While a 0.26 is a decent rating for a 10 PM series at this point, it's far less impressive when a show has such a strong scripted lead-in. I don't think this is going to move CBS to change their minds on Watson, not when they've seemingly already decided that Watson is on its way out. There's not a ton of room on the schedule already, and I don't see how a surprise Watson renewal would fit onto next season's schedule. The linear gains also didn't seem indicative of an improved multiplatform performance, as it failed to chart at all, and we know it's been among their lowest-rated series in MP this season. Its only genuine chance at renewal is performing very well once it's added to Netflix, though Netflix deals aren't the life-savers for CBs series that they once were for CW series. Mayor of Kingstown got a Netflix deal and is still ending, and - while only partially owned - The Equalizer was axed soon after its Netflix deal last year. Watson remains a likely cancellation.
CIA: CIA's second week on the air saw stability, as it didn't drop from its premiere despite FBI slipping a bit. It did lose 200,000 viewers, which was a larger drop than FBI experienced, but that's not too dramatic a decline for a new show. Ratings are very borderline so far, and combining that with being partially-owned and in a franchise CBS is moving away from adds up to a show that's probably on the wrong side of the bubble. As such, CBS has largely ignored its premiere ratings. While quick to praise Marshals and brag about its blockbuster debut, they've kept mum on CIA - unusual for a network that's quick to positively spin the ratings for their new shows. It gives off the impression that they don't care about CIA, and given they don't really have room for it and their other midseason debut was the huge success we knew it had the potential to be, they probably don't have much of a reason to care. It continues to lean cancellation, but it's probably in more trouble than its OK start and stability would suggest.
America's Culinary Cup: CBS (or rather, CBS president Amy Reisenbach) has long been in search of a cooking show for its lineup. They've finally got one, and they've been rewarded with a 0.29 in the key 18-49 demo, fewer than two million viewers, and ghastly 31% retention from the highest-rated show they've had in years, Survivor 50. It's frankly unbelievable that CBS thought this show was going to do well behind Survivor, and even more unbelievable that this is what they've used the Survivor 50 lead-in on. A heavily-hyped season of one of the most well-known and popular series in recent TV history was a chance to swing big and try to launch a promising new series, and they've decided that such "promising new series" was a cooking show you would otherwise be seeing getting 0.1s on the Food Network. While The Amazing Race averaged a lower 0.27 in the fall, and had mediocre retention itself, it's worth noting that the fall Survivor run was a full three tenths lower than 50 has rated so far. Culinary Cup is clearly weaker than that already below-average Amazing Race season, and probably weaker than anything else CBS could've aired here, too. This is such a misfire, but CBS even slotting the show here at all certainly suggests that they're high on this show, and they do tend to renew shows that they really like and are high on, even when the ratings are shaky. If America's Culinary Cup holds up well the next few months, CBS might just want to renew it anyway, since they have renewed shows with lower ratings, even if none of those shows had such a strong launchpad. It's impossible to not mark it as a renewal underdog out of the gate, but CBS's desire to be in the cooking show business does help boost its odds a bit. It leans cancellation for now.
The Neighborhood: What a strong week it was for The Neighborhood. While it's on its way out and has wrapped production, the show was CBS's third highest-rated scripted program this week behind Marshals and Tracker, rising a full tenth from the previous week. That its ending this season despite being an owned linear hit is a true testament to the rising importance of multiplatform ratings. While it hasn't been able to help CBS launch DMV this year, they're still likely to miss it when it ends in a few months.
Interactive Schedule:| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Neighborhood | DMV | FBI | CIA | |
| Tues | NCIS | NCIS: Origins | NCIS: Sydney | ||
| Wed | The Price Is Right At Night | Hollywood Squares | Harlan Coben's Final Twist | ||
| Thurs | Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage | Ghosts | Matlock | Elsbeth | |
| Fri | Sheriff Country | Fire Country | Boston Blue | ||
| Sun | Tracker | The Road | Watson | ||
