This week on the NBC Renew/Cancel, I take a look at NBC's Monday night shows, which recently wrapped for the season with less-than-ideal ratings. Keep reading to see which show is due for a downgrade and which appears to be already renewed despite its ongoing troubles.
Certain Cancellation:
Brilliant Minds (0.14, 0.11-0.18)
Likely Cancellation:
The Hunting Party (0.16, 0.10-0.22)
Leans Cancellation:
On Brand with Jimmy Fallon (0.17, 0.14-0.22)
Stumble (0.20, 0.11-0.61)
The Wall (0.16, 0.12-0.19)
Leans Renewal:
N/A
Likely Renewal:
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins (0.38, 0.19-1.38)
Law & Order (0.24, 0.20-0.29)
The Voice (0.28, 0.19-0.42)
Certain Renewal:
Dateline NBC (0.18, 0.15-0.26)
Law & Order: SVU (0.30, 0.21-0.33)
Saturday Night Live (0.64, 0.43-0.91)
Already Renewed:
Chicago Fire (0.34, 0.29-0.39)
Chicago Med (0.34, 0.28-0.39)
Chicago PD (0.29, 0.25-0.34)
Happy's Place (0.25, 0.18-0.33)
St. Denis Medical (0.31, 0.24-0.37)
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins: I upgraded Reggie Dinkins a few weeks ago due to its strong retention of St. Denis Medical and its continued solid ratings. I don't think that was necessarily a mistake based on the information at the time, but the second half of its first season has clearly been weaker. It hit a series low the next two weeks (after already dipping to a series low 0.25 earlier that week), and it never went above that 0.25 series low again. Last week's 0.19 behind St Denis Medical's 0.29 was easily the weakest point of the season, though I wasn't terribly concerned by it, because Reggie Dinkins aired against the NCAA championship and St. Denis did not. This week's two-episode finale did little to impress, with a 0.21 in the 8 PM hour (below every St. Denis episode this season) and a 0.24 at 8:30. The finale rating wasn't terrible, but it highlighted that the show has definitely weakened the last few weeks.
We saw similar last year from St. Denis Medical, with the show performing well earlier in the year and then dropping deeper into spring. It's not an unusual trend, as spring is known to cause ratings declines, but it's still a concern. St. Denis's impressive rebound from last year's spring ratings woes isn't something you can take for granted. There's no guarantee that Reggie Dinkins returns any better than this for season two. It can be stuck around the 0.20 mark, and be well on its way to being another two-and-done NBC sitcom.
We also have no clue how Reggie Dinkins is performing on streaming, with NBC releasing no data about the show post-premiere. It's rarely charted on Peacock, and it's obviously never made Nielsen's top 20 shows of the week. Its total viewership numbers have also been concerning, with it being among NBC's least-watched series, with only Brilliant Minds and Stumble drawing smaller crowds (and neither of them had an NFL lead-in). While we tend to focus on the demo rating, networks don't entirely ignore total viewership, especially when it comes to streaming. It could be doing much better on streaming than it appears, but the signs are pointing to it not having a huge audience there, either. That could certainly hurt it in the future.
While I'm going to downgrade Reggie Dinkins for the last few weeks of disappointing performances, I do think its renewal is very likely. NBC has seemed pretty high on the show, with it being the only show on the network to get a post-NFL airing this season. It's been heavily promoted, and is created and produced by creatives that NBC loves working with. They're likely to give it at least a second chance before sending it on its way, especially when its ratings have still been OK for the season overall. Thanks entirely to its post-NFL rating, it is NBC's highest-rated show in the demo outside of SNL, and canceling it would be a big surprise. It moves to a likely renewal this week, but it's definitely a disappointment after its strong start, and I expect its second season to be another short run, rather than a full season.
The Voice: Let's be perfectly clear: The Voice's heyday is long behind it. This spring season averaged just 0.24, and the fall and spring seasons combined averaged 0.28. The previous spring season alone averaged 0.36, and the previous fall season averaged 0.43. Those seasons already had sizable year-to-year drops, and the declines don't appear to be slowing down at all. It dropped nearly every week this season, only rising during its final week of airing. Reality shows are generally seen as more cost-effective than scripted series, but there are exceptions - and The Voice is one of them. This is a very expensive reality show, with sizable salaries for the celebrity coaches, and 0.2s aren't impressive at all for a show of this calibre. It's performing basically in-line with far cheaper Fox game shows and regularly (though not always) declined from Reggie Dinkins.
Airing against ABC's American Idol is doing it no favors (especially given that that show starts an hour earlier, meaning fans of singing competition shows are likely to already be locked into Idol when The Voice begins an episode), but there are other concerns here. It was dropping even without that Idol competition, and it's clear that the show isn't the big hit it long was for NBC. NBC knows that, and implemented major cost cuts this season, which may have further sped up the declines, as it shook up the show's format from what fans are used to seeing.
That being said, it's coming back for season thirty. Adam Levine has signed on to be a coach next season, and that's an announcement we wouldn't be getting if NBC had any plans to move on. That's the only bit of news we have about the future of The Voice, so it's not yet officially renewed (I won't consider it such until NBC itself says those words), but it will be back. NBC often shares details about both seasons of The Voice around Upfront time, so we'll likely find out soon if they're planning one or two cycles next season. Cutting The Voice to once cycle per year is probably a wise choice, but it's not a guarantee. They have plenty of shows - both ongoing and in development - to fill those two hours in the winter/spring, but they could simply return to what's comfortable and keep The Voice going, likely continuing its downward spiral. Despite its renewal being all but announced, I'll keep it as a likely renewal, just because I don't think it's fair to alter my long-held prediction now that the show's fate is apparent. However, NBC's scheduling plans for this show next season have always been the more interesting factor than whether it would be renewed or not - and I'd guess that season thirty will be the only to air in the 2026-27 TV seasons.
NBC Renew/Cancel March Madness:
SVU is NBC's second-longest-running series, and has built a very dedicated fanbase in that time, making its victory easy to understand. In this tournament, it fended off competition from its Thursday night lead-out, a fellow Dick Wolf series, a freshman sitcom that had pulled off two huge and impressive wins in the previous rounds, and the longest-running scripted show on television. On paper, any of its opponents could have defeated it, but it always had comfortable wins.
On the other hand, while the #1 seed, SNL had two tight victories in a row after initially being given a bye to the second round. This year was easily its best performance, as it only won a single matchup in the previous two years combined, so it can take pride in making the championship game and losing against a show that has had a stranglehold on this tournament from the very start.
Interactive Schedule:
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | St. Denis Medical | Reggie Dinkins | The Voice | Brilliant Minds | ||
| Tues | NBA on NBC | |||||
| Wed | Chicago Med | Chicago Fire | Chicago PD | |||
| Thurs | Law & Order | Law & Order: SVU | The Hunting Party | |||
| Fri | Happy's Place | Stumble | Dateline NBC | |||
| Sat | Encores | |||||
| Sun | Sunday Night Basketball | |||||
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled
