ABC Renew/Cancel Week 19: RJ Decker Could Remain On Deck

This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, we take a look at ABC's most recent debut, which starts on shaky ground but still has a path to renewal. Plus, another look at ABC's new game show, which is moving in the right direction after an underwhelming start to the season.

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:
The Golden Bachelor (0.19, 0.16-0.28)

Leans Cancellation:
The Greatest Average American (0.28, 0.27-0.28)

Leans Renewal:
RJ Decker (0.21)
The Rookie (0.26, 0.19-0.29)

Likely Renewal:

Celebrity Wheel of Fortune (0.23, 0.15-0.31)

The Great Christmas Light Fight (0.18, 0.14-0.22)

Scrubs (0.57, 0.49-0.66)

Shark Tank (0.16, 0.11-0.24)

Shifting Gears (0.37, 0.31-0.45)

Will Trent (0.33, 0.25-0.40)

Certain Renewal:

20/20 (0.19, 0.12-0.23)

American Idol (0.48, 0.43-0.62)

America's Funniest Home Videos (0.31, 0.24-0.39)

Dancing with the Stars (1.36, 1.02-2.06)

Grey's Anatomy (0.19, 0.13-0.27)

Already Renewed:

9-1-1

9-1-1: Nashville

Abbott Elementary

High Potential

Already Canceled/Ending:

Dirty Talk: When Daytime Talk Shows Ruled TV (Miniseries)

Coming Soon:

The Bachelorette

Celebrity Jeopardy!

RJ Decker: Last week, ABC capped off its scripted debuts for this season with RJ Decker, their latest procedural. It's a show that. seems specifically tailored to air with High Potential and Will Trent, which have quickly helped reform the ABC drama brand into more lighthearted, almost comedic procedurals, following in the footsteps of the long-running The Rookie. It's no shock that RJ Decker has inherited the Rookie's slot behind High Potential. The Rookie is an established show that doesn't really need the help from High Potential (especially as its strength is more prevalent in multiplatform ratings), and High Potential is strong enough to be trusted as a lead-in for a new series. On premiere night, it was a mixed bag. RJ Decker didn't bomb dramatically, but its 0.21 premiere rating could've been better. High Potential did have its lowest-rated 9 PM rating of the season with a 0.32 (all lower ratings it's hit this season happened at 10 PM), but it still provided a solid lead-in for RJ, and that 0.21 premiere won't give it much room to grow. Still, I do think ABC is inclined to give this show a second chance. Will Trent didn't exactly start as a huge hit, and they still saw potential in it, renewed it, and gave it a huge time slot upgrade the next season. Whether the same will happen for RJ Decker remains to be seen (8 PM slots aren't exactly easy to come by), but I think it's started at a level where you can give it the benefit of the doubt regarding renewal. 0.21 for an 8 PM series is OK - higher than Grey's Anatomy, but lower than The Rookie (and somehow Shark Tank, at least last week). ABC might not love that a new show has immediately premiered lower than any rating The Rookie got behind High Potential, but I think they're going to be patient. This show will only have a short first season, so it doesn't have that much time to fall or to prove itself. ABC will have to make a call based on only a handful of episodes, and given how high they seem on it (at least based on its premium time slot and heavy promotion), I would expect at least a short second season order to give it some time to grow. Of course, we don't have all the data, and multiplatform data may ell suggest that RJ Decker is not worth their effort. So far, it only looks OK on streaming. It's significantly weaker than High Potential (whose streaming performance was the first indication of the show's, pun intended, high potential) and The Rookie on the Hulu chart, but roughly in-line with Will Trent, which is famously among ABC's weaker shows in terms of delayed ratings gains. If it begins really underperforming there, ABC has a tough choice on its hands. As of right now, they seem to be behind the show, and its premiere was decent enough that I'm not wavering on it yet. It leans renewal.

The Greatest Average American: Week two was a huge improvement for The Greatest Average American. Despite a lead-in that was a tenth and a half lower than last week, the game show saw a slight gain from last week. Perhaps that's thanks to Survivor only airing against it for half the episode this week (its first half was steady with the 9 PM half-hour from last week, but it rose from last week's 9:30 showing), but it's still a welcome showing for a series that didn't exactly dazzle on premiere night. I'm not going to upgrade it this week, since it's still very early and I don't think the comedy hour before it has settled in the ratings quite yet. So far, though, this is an improvement on The Golden Bachelor, and Shark Tank has really benefitted from a ring behind it. While ABC's Wednesday lineup next season may well look quite different, The Greatest Average American's chances of landing somewhere on ABC's schedule next year do seem to be improving. It leans cancellation still, but it really could go either way, and momentum is on its side for now.

9-1-1, 9-1-1: Nashville, Abbott Elementary, High Potential: Since our last update, ABC has renewed for series - three dramas and a comedy. Abbott Elementary and High Potential were both total locks, while I was still pretty sure the 9-1-1s would be back, but wasn't 100% sold on them quite yet, due to some concerning ratings trends. Still, all were easily predicted renewals, and all will be back next season for sure. The only major surprise of this bunch is that a few of ABC's other veteran scripted series have still been left waiting for news. It could be coming soon, they could be delayed by budget talks, or perhaps they're not as safe as they appear. We'll be looking into that a bit locker next week, if ABC doesn't make any major announcements before then.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	American Idol			The Rookie
Tues	Will Trent		High Potential	RJ Decker
Wed	Scrubs	Abbott Elementary	The Greatest Average American	Shark Tank
Thurs	9-1-1		9-1-1: Nashville	Grey's Anatomy
Fri	Celebrity Wheel of Fortune		20/20
Sat	NBA Saturday Primetime
Sun	The Wonderful World of Disney