A series of recent renewals leaves questions for the shows that have been left waiting to hear their fats. Keep reading to see if Will Trent and Shifting Gears may find themselves surprisingly on the bubble this season. Plus, voting begins for the annual ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness tournament!
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
The Golden Bachelor (0.19, 0.16-0.28)
Leans Cancellation:
The Greatest Average American (0.27, 0.25-0.28)
Leans Renewal:
RJ Decker (0.22, 0.21-0.23)
The Rookie (0.26, 0.19-0.29)
Will Trent: Four of ABC's ten current scripted shows have recently been renewed, but what stands out most to me is one particular one that has not been. Two of their shows just premiered, another is likely working out an episode order for next season, and two more are older shows (one only partially owned) that need to hammer out financial agreements. Will Trent, though, is a big question mark. It's a strong linear ratings performer and next season would just be its fifth season. It's only March, so a show not being renewed yet isn't generally of great concern. There was a time where most shows were left hanging until May, including the biggest of hits.
However, it does feel odd for the 9-1-1s (one being far older and likely costlier, and the other being lower-rated) and High Potential (a drama which airs with Will Trent on Tuesday) to be renewed together already while Will Trent is currently left hanging. IT does naturally lead you to wonder: is Will Trent as safe as we think it is? As I said, its linear ratings are pretty strong (though ABC has had a solid enough season that its current 0.32 average puts it in the bottom half of their ten current shows, currently rating #6 among them), but its multiplatform ratings show its weaknesses. It's a notably worse streaming performer than The Rookie and High Potential, which are both of a similar genre and tone, though it is performing about on par with RJ Decker (which is by no means a lock at this point). Is this making ABC rethink their commitment to it?
So far, ABC is still treating the show like a priority, and sticking with the show as their 8 PM anchor is a strong indicator they're not ready to let it go. It is possible, though, that they know the show wouldn't hold up in a later slot, as even for seasons in, most of its lowest ratings came when it aired at 10 PM in season one, back at a time when 10 PM rated higher. At least based on its delayed ratings, Will Trent does have the feeling of a "timeslot hit," or a show that performs well in ideal scheduling scenarios, but doesn't hold up well outside of them, because it's living off of its lead-in. 8 PM is a great time slot, and maybe ABC is ready to open it up to their next promising drama. Despite the apparent weaknesses of Will Trent and and peculiar lack of a renewal at this point, I don't think they really are ready to move on from it. While it's one of ABC's lowest-rated shows in the MP+7 demo, it's rating similarly to 9-1-1: Nashville in that metric, while rating better in linear ratings. 9-1-1: Nashville is only in its first season and is the spinoff of a profitable franchise-launching hit, so maybe what's good enough for Nashville won't be good enough for Will Trent. But it is worth noting that in total viewers, it is still pretty highly-rated, ahead of both 9-1-1s, ABC's comedies, and Grey's Anatomy. That's a metric that matters more for streaming ratings than it traditionally has with L+SD ratings, and it's going to be beneficial for Will Trent's renewal argument.
I think, in the end, Will Trent is going to earn itself a fifth season, but I do think we're getting somewhat close to the end of the show's run, and we could be seeing the Tuesday night lineup changing again fairly soon. So, why is Will Trent still waiting for a renewal? It perplexes me, but it's the only major concern I have about Will Trent. I think its multiplatform ratings aren't bad enough to lead to its cancellation, and its linear ratings are still pretty solid, even beating High Potential just last week. Perhaps ABC is considering a smaller order for next season to fit more shows on the schedule - they have a Rookie spinoff in the pipeline, and RJ Decker will also possibly be back, while all of ABC's other veterans seem likely to return. Or maybe I think Will Trent is somewhat on the bubble at this point, while ABC tries to find room for everything, but it's still more likely to be on next season's schedule than RJ Decker or any new dramas. It's still a likely renewal.
Shifting Gears: Shifting Gears has been an odd case the whole season, in that it had a limited order for season two despite a fall slot, and it never seemed to have any chance of an extension (which is an option usually available to second-season shows that get limited initial orders). It's been speculated that this is due to Tim Allen's own wishes, which is possible, but he did do full seasons of Last Man Standing as recently as five years ago. It's also been speculated that it's due to production costs, which raises the question of whether this show is really financially viable for ABC if it costs so much that they can only order short seasons of a standard broadcast multi-cam. If it is a cost issue, that's going to be a problem pretty soon - it doomed Last Man Standing during its ABC run, and budget issues are a bigger sticking point than ever these days.
Budget issues have caused seasons to shrink, but a thirteen-episode order still stands out as usually low. It's also made the lack of a renewal for Shifting Gears stick out even more. ABC does have a lot of decisions to make on the comedy front next season: will they expand comedy to two hours, will they pick up their new comedy pilot, will they give Scrubs a longer season, how will they manage their Wednesday lineup. And so, it does make sense they haven't rushed to order more Shifting Gears, if they're really not sure where and how they're going to air it.
This show probably does need to be at 8 PM - like Will Trent (but to an even more extreme degree), it is heavily carried by its live+same-day performance, lagging behind in multiplatform ratings. So since it's low-rated in that metric, it could genuinely be on the bubble. If ABC only wants two comedy slots, maybe they don't really need Shifting Gears. I do expect it to still be renewed, because its linear ratings are very impressive, but I can see why ABC is taking their time with it - even if it's rarely a good sing for a show to not be renewed yet, more than a month after airing its finale. Shifting Gears is still a likely renewal, but I don't think you can rule out a surprise cancellation here, with Abbott Elementary already renewed, Scrubs seeming to be set for a longer second season, and a new comedy pilot still remaining a huge question mark. If ABC has no place to go with Shifting Gears, they may find themselves wondering if they really need it at all.
ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness:
This marks the beginning of voting for the third annual ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness in which our riders vote for their favorite programs on ABC, until the ultimate favorite is crowned at the end of four weeks of voting. With ten scripted shows on the bracket this year, the tournament will begin with the First Four round, featuring four shows fighting for a spot in the Elite Eight. Those first four shows are ABC's lowest-rated shows, with #7 seed The Rookie (a one-time finalist) taking on #10 seed Grey's Anatomy, and #8 seed 9-1-1: Nashville taking on #9 seed RJ Decker. This year's #1 seed is new comedy Scrubs, while the reigning champion, Abbott Elementary, is your #4 seed. They and the other top six shows will join the competition next week. For now, we have two polls open to help us solidify that Elite Eight,1
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | American Idol | The Rookie | ||||||
| Tues | Will Trent | High Potential | RJ Decker | |||||
| Wed | Scrubs | Abbott Elementary | The Greatest Average American | Shark Tank | ||||
| Thurs | 9-1-1 | 9-1-1: Nashville | Grey's Anatomy | |||||
| Fri | Celebrity Wheel of Fortune | 20/20 | ||||||
| Sat | NBA Saturday Primetime | |||||||
| Sun | The Wonderful World of Disney | |||||||
