It's a positive ABC Renew/Cancel this week, as two shows improve their footing as we head into the closing weeks of the season. Plus, the ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness continues with four shows advancing!
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
The Golden Bachelor (0.19, 0.16-0.28)
Leans Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Renewal:
The Greatest Average American (0.23, 0.18-0.28)
RJ Decker (0.18, 0.13-0.23)
The Rookie: There may be no show on TV in which its linear ratings are more misleading about its true strength than The Rookie. On its face, The Rookie is a low-rated, old show that should probably be in jeopardy. Its retention behind American Idol has been mostly terrible, and it tied a series low just last week, even as Idol recovered a bit. And yet, in multiplatform ratings, it's among ABC's strongest shows. It's not a High Potential-level hit, but in the demo, it's pretty close. It's hitting new highs in delayed ratings despite being in its eighth season, and in the grand scheme of things, it does seem more popular than ever. A few weeks ago, I wrote about Will Trent, which has been left without a renewal, even as the 9-1-1s and High Potential have scored renewals already. Theoretically, a show being left without a renewal while many other shows on the network have been handed pickups - especially one several months into its current season - should be a sign of trouble. I don't really feel that way about The Rookie. While Will Trent's non-renewal is hard to explain, The Rookie's makes a bit more sense, and I'm not going to hold it against it. This is a veteran drama that will be entering its ninth season next year, and ABC is probably hard at work figuring out how to keep its budget manageable, as well as figuring out the logistics of airing both it and a new spinoff, which seems very likely to be ordered to series for next season. It's also only partially owned with Lionsgate, so ABC is likely making negotiations with them about budget, episode order, potential cast cuts, and its long-term future. I do think being only partially-owned will come to bite The Rookie, and that it's going to be one of the next ABC shows to exit the airwaves. Whether that's next season or the season after, I do think we're nearing the end. But with it being nearly April already, I don't think ABC's going to cancel The Rookie at this stage. While they did axe The Goldbergs, a longer-running series, after it had wrapped production for the season, I think The Rookie is important enough for Disney that its ending won't be a last-minute thing. It remains strong in multiplatform viewing, even if it's faltered in L+SD airings recently, and it will get a ninth season. It's upgraded this week to a likely renewal, and I'd go so far as to say it's a safer bet to return than two other shows that have been in that category for longer than it - Shifting Gears and Will Trent.
The Greatest Average American: Ratings-wise, ABC doesn't need this Nate Bargatze game show. It's somewhat stronger than The Golden Bachelor, but it's not a show ABC should go out of their way to try to prioritize. It's OK filler programming, but nothing spectacular. With a 0.23 average so far, it looks like the sort of new midseason game show that could absolutely go either way - it could either return for another season, or simply never be mentioned again. We've seen plenty such series on ABC in the past, and with ABC comedy looking solid lately, it's very possible that this Wednesday at 9 hour will be filled by scripted shows next season, leaving this show without a slot to air in. Still, this show is likely quite cheap, and its ratings aren't awful. It seems to be helping Shark Tank a bit, as that show is performing better at 10 than it did behind The Golden Bachelor. Average American is also not rating too far behind Fox's Fear Factor or CBS's Culinary Cup in the same time slot, so it's keeping ABC daily competitive in the hour - which Golden Bachelor did not do. It's also rating roughly the same as Celebrity Jeopardy! did in the slot last year. ABC has also announced that the show will regularly air repeats on Sundays at 9 behind America's Funniest Home Videos, in place of the now-scrapped Bachelorette season. In other words, this show seems to be becoming ABC's "In Case of Emergency - Break Glass" replacement for their Bachelor shows this season. ABC could've aired anything in that slot - some Hulu program, another hour of AFV, repeats of their sitcoms or dramas, or 20/20 or ABC News specials. They've instead given the slot to repeats of a game show that seems like it's on the bubble, and which isn't exactly lighting the world on fire in its regular slot. That feels like a vote of confidence in the show. They do seem to like it, and it's pretty well-promoted for midseason filler, so these ratings are probably enough for it to keep going. Who knows, maybe these Sunday repeats are even a test to see if the show could pair well with AFV. Maybe we'll see the return of game shows next fall instead of ABC's recent Disney movie repeats. There are many possibilities for where this game show could air next season, and I suspect it will get that renewal. It leans renewal.
Grey's Anatomy: Just earlier today, ABC ordered a twenty-third season of their longest-running series. While it's a meager linear performer now, the show has great value to ABC as a strong streaming performer, especially internationally. While I've typically started the show out as a likely renewal in most recent seasons due to its advanced age and costs, it was upgraded to a certain renewal about a month ago, and is a correct prediction for me. Long may Grey's reign.
ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness:
The Elite Eight of the ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness is now down to the Final Four. After another week of our readers voting for their favorite shows on ABC, four series have advanced to the semifinals. #1 overall seed Scrubs easily defeated 9-1-1: Nashville, which had narrowly won a play-in round against RJ Decker the previous week. Last year's March Madness champion Abbott Elementary faced what seemed like tough competition from 9-1-1, but the sitcom easily triumphed, taking over two-thirds of the vote and repeating history, as the show defeated 9-1-1 in the Final Four last year. The closest of the four contests was between Shifting Gears and The Rookie. While Shifting Gears nearly made the championship last year, and defeated The Rookie in the first round, The Rookie got revenge this year. It wins by roughly 15% this year. High Potential easily beat its Tuesday night lead-in Will Trent, and will advance to the Final Four for the first time, as its run was cut short last year by Abbott Elementary.
The Final Four will see Wednesday night companions Scrubs and Abbott Elementary facing off, while High Potential will face The Rookie, which aired behind it briefly both last season and this season. Will The Rookie continue to overperform and make it back to the championship game? And will Abbott Elementary take down the #1 seed to get a chance to defend its title? You can vote below for your picks, with the polls remaining open all week.
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | American Idol | The Rookie | ||||||
| Tues | Will Trent | High Potential | RJ Decker | |||||
| Wed | Scrubs | Abbott Elementary | The Greatest Average American | Shark Tank | ||||
| Thurs | 9-1-1 | 9-1-1: Nashville | Grey's Anatomy | |||||
| Fri | Celebrity Wheel of Fortune | 20/20 | ||||||
| Sat | NBA Saturday Primetime | |||||||
| Sun | The Wonderful World of Disney | |||||||
