ABC Renew/Cancel Week 25: A Further Investigation Into RJ Decker

This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, RJ Decker steps back into the spotlight after moving up to an earlier hour. Plus, one of ABC's freshman reality entries is due for an upgrade after improving its standing in recent weeks.

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:
The Golden Bachelor (0.19, 0.16-0.28)

Leans Cancellation:
Betrayal: Secrets & Lies (0.13, 0.09-0.15)

Leans Renewal:
The Greatest Average American (0.22, 0.17-0.28)
RJ Decker (0.18, 0.13-0.23)

Likely Renewal:

Celebrity Jeopardy! (0.31, 0.31-0.32)

Celebrity Wheel of Fortune (0.23, 0.15-0.31)

The Great Christmas Light Fight (0.18, 0.14-0.22)

Shark Tank (0.17, 0.11-0.24)

Shifting Gears (0.37, 0.31-0.45)

Certain Renewal:

20/20 (0.20, 0.12-0.32)

American Idol (0.45, 0.36-0.62)

America's Funniest Home Videos (0.32, 0.24-0.44)

Dancing with the Stars (1.36, 1.02-2.06)

Scrubs (0.47, 0.39-0.66)

Already Renewed:

9-1-1

9-1-1: Nashville

Abbott Elementary

Grey's Anatomy

High Potential

The Rookie

Will Trent

Already Canceled/Ending:

Dirty Talk: When Daytime Talk Shows Ruled TV (Miniseries)

RJ Decker: I've gone back and forth on RJ Decker, and I remain uncertain about its chances. It's had some genuinely terrible weeks, but it's also had some decent weeks, and it's been hard to get a clear read on it so far. However, with the season nearing its end, I'm feeling better about its renewal chances than I have in several weeks.

Last week, RJ Decker moved up from 10 PM to 9 PM. It was a natural move, as High Potential vacated the hour the previous week. I don't think ABC moving RJ Decker to an earlier slot indicated much about its renewal chances, they just didn't want to air a repeat between two originals. I believed RJ Decker would still need to prove itself in that slot. I do think it has somewhat done that. High Potential had a pretty rough post-Olympics run. Every episode was below its season average, and as we got deeper into the spring (a time of year it hadn't aired before), it looked less like a hit and more like an average performer. Its 0.25 finale tied a series low, and gave RJ Decker the chance to hold up fairly well in comparison.

RJ Decker's first 9 PM airing came in at a 0.22, only three hundredths lower than the previous week's High Potential. I don't think RJ Decker is anywhere near as strong as High Potential overall, but on linear, it's close enough at the moment that I have to give it some credit. This is a show that was at 0.13 a month ago, so to see it barely trailing High Potential's recent performances is fairly impressive. I do think there is some potential here for RJ Decker, even if I don't expect it to ever be a "hit," per se. Will Trent wasn't terribly impressive in its first season either, and has become a respectable player for ABC, so maybe RJ Decker could thrive in an earlier time slot, too.

On streaming, RJ Decker also increased from some of its weaker showings in previous weeks. It peaked at #5 on Hulu this week, its best showing in over a month. Part of that was due to High Potential (and Best Medicine, to a lesser extent) ending the previous week, but RJ has also held up better in the following days than it had in previous weeks. We don't have concrete Hulu data for RJ Decker, but it does seem to also be improving a bit there. I'd love to get more streaming data for. RJ Decker, as there has been so little of it this season, which was a big red flag for me. But I have to go on the data I do have, and what I have seems to be trending in a positive direction.

Despite coming around on RJ Decker this week, I'm still not certain it'll be back. It's ABC's lowest-rated scripted show this season, and as I said, we have no clear proof that it's making up for that in its delayed viewing performance. It's also possible that last week's improvement was a fluke, and we could see RJ Decker sink back to the levels it was at only a few short weeks ago. I really don't like making prediction changes off of only a single week of data, but as the season is so close to the end, I'm willing to be a bit more reactive. It's by no means a lock to return, but there isn't much currently in development at ABC, so it's not too difficult for them to give RJ a second chance and see if it works out. I'm willing to bet that they'll do just that, which was how I originally felt about it at the start of the season. It leans renewal.

Betrayal: Secrets & Lies: After a pitiful debut, Betrayal: Secrets & Lies has ticked up two weeks in a row. It's gone from an inexcusable 0.09 to a semi-excusable 0.15. This show was thrown to the wolves after ABC yanked The Bachelorette from the schedule, though I doubt the game show repeats airing at 9 are any worse of a lead-in than The Bachelorette would've been. Those celebrity Jeopardy repeats are barely doing any worse than originals, and The Bachelorette is notably a poor lead-in, so this is probably how Betrayal: Secrets & Lies would be performing even with an original lead-in.

Regardless of the lead-in situation, the show has shown some decent growth, and it's not doing too badly for a filler program in an awful time slot. We've seen ABC bring back similar short-order filler programs that everyone had already likely forgotten about (see Bad Romance), so another short season to plug a hole somewhat on the schedule isn't out of the realm of possibility. It's still not exactly doing "well," so ABC has no reason to go out of their way to make a spot for it. However, if the opportunity presents itself, it's improved enough to keep itself a realistic option to return for a few weeks. It leans cancellation now.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	American Idol			The Rookie
Tues	Will Trent		RJ Decker	High Potential (R)
Wed	Scrubs	Abbott Elementary	The Greatest Average American	Shark Tank
Thurs	9-1-1		9-1-1: Nashville	Grey's Anatomy
Fri	Celebrity Jeopardy!		20/20
Sat	NBA Saturday Primetime
Sun	America's Funniest Home Videos		Celebrity Jeopardy! (R)	Betrayal: Secrets & Lies