Prediction Key:
Week 18 Predictions:
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| Shows' 18-49 demo average and weekly peak performance on Paramount+ are listed in parenthesis |
America's Culinary Cup: One of the clearest signs that Watson was going to be renewed last season was an abundance of promotion for the series during March Madness games on CBS. It's a highly-viewed event that CBS uses to promote their to priorities, even if it doesn't necessarily translate to any ratings movement. This year, America's Culinary Cup is among their most-promoted series during the opening days of March Madness, including in-game promotions, which wouldn't be the case if the weak linear ratings performance had caused them to sour on the show. In the past, CBS has shown that they're willing to make some questionable renewals if they're really attached to a show and want to give it a second chance (see Watson just last year, or So Help Me Todd a few years ago), and that seems like what's happening here. CBS president Amy Reisenbach has stated multiple times in interviews that CBS is trying to find a cooking show for their schedule, adding that she's a big fan of the genre. That would certainly explain its scheduling behind Survivor 50 (a lead-in it has squandered big-time), and indicates that they may be willing to hand out another one of those questionable renewals in their quest to make this show work. Culinary Cup hit a 0.30 this week. Sure, that's less than a third of its lead-in (the highest entertainment program of the week, across any network), and its total viewer retention is similarly abysmal (it's one of CBS's least-watched series, despite a lead-in that's averaging 5 million viewers). However, its 0.28 average is higher than over half of CBS's ongoing programs, including The Amazing Race (which also aired behind Survivor, albeit a Survivor rating three tenths lower than it has this season) and already-renewed programs like Elsbeth, NCIS: Origins and Fire Country. Much like using al season's post-NFL premiere of Watson to inflate its average to help justify its renewal, CBS has used that huge Survivor lead-in to make America's Culinary Cup look fairly renewable when you take it out of context. They want this show to succeed, and they want to renew it. Despite the show clearly being a scheduling misfire, the signs are pointing to them giving it another season anyway. It's upgraded this week to leans renewal.
CIA: Another show with positive news brought by March Madness is CIA. The show hasn't been a focal point of their promotion like America's Culinary Cup, and it hasn't received in-game promo, but it hasn't been completely ignored, either. It still does feel like a bit of an afterthought compared to some of the network's priorities, but it is at least getting more promotion than some other shows still "on the bubble," like DMV and Watson. Last week was surely its weakest linear performance, as it slipped to a 0.18 while FBI stayed steady at 0.35. Roughly 50% retention isn't great for a spinoff show, especially when the parent show is probably on its way out very soon itself. However, multiplatform data the week of March 2nd was pretty promising, with the show ranking twentieth overall, and ahead of Elsbeth, Boston Blue, and several other renewed series, and just a few hundred thousand viewers behind FBI. It's not a huge hit, but its multiplatform performance is solid enough that CBS could justify a renewal if they wanted to, at least if it continued to hold up as well as the second episode did. The problem is, they don't seem to want to. It's been left as one of very few CBS shows awaiting renewal news, with Marshals - which premiered days later - already being renewed more than a week ago. CBS has multiple new drama pilots lined up, and zero dramas have been canceled so far. Canceling DMV, Watson and reality show The Road along with The Neighborhood will open up just three hours of programming in the fall - one of which has already been taken up by Marshals. There's minimal room for CIA, and it seems unlikely that they'll go out of their way to alter their plans to accommodate a partially-owned show performing at only a respectable level in its first season - especially when CBS has never even seemed confident in it from the start. They haven't completely abandoned it yet, but this show is starting to feel more and more like the one-and-done midseason dramas that used to be far more commonly seen on CBS in past years. It leans cancellation again, but it still faces an uphill battle.
DMV: CBS's new sitcom continues to look worse and worse as the season goes on. Its retention from The Neighborhood remains mediocre, even if its overall ratings average isn't too horrible. CBS likely made up their minds on the show back when it completely failed its 8 PM tryout back in December, proving to them that it had no chance of being the sort of lead-in dependent linear hit that The Neighborhood was for many years. Its streaming performance has always been pretty poor - it's been a very rare sight on Paramount+'s top ten charts - and it appears to have significantly faded in multiplatform viewing after a solid opening. CBS didn't renew it with the other shows for a reason, and now they're not even bothering to promote it during March Madness. It's one of the few shows CBS is completely ignoring in their advertising, along with another show that looks totally dead - Watson. DMV's best hope for renewal has long been as a pity renewal, in the event that CBS needs another comedy to air with a new comedy pilot they like. It now looks more likely that they'll either pick up both comedy pilots automatically so they have four comedies, or that they'll totally scrap the Monday block (something that could help CIA's renewal chances, but still an unlikely option). A renewal for DMV seems to be almost totally off the table, but it will remain a likely cancellation rather than being downgraded.
CBS Renew/Cancel March Madness:
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Neighborhood | DMV | FBI | CIA | |
| Tues | NCIS | NCIS: Origins | NCIS: Sydney | ||
| Wed | The Price Is Right At Night | Hollywood Squares | Harlan Coben's Final Twist | ||
| Thurs | Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage | Ghosts | Matlock | Elsbeth | |
| Fri | Sheriff Country | Fire Country | Boston Blue | ||
| Sun | Tracker | The Road | Watson | ||
