Prediction Key:
Week 15 Predictions:
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| Shows' 18-49 demo average and weekly peak performance on Paramount+ are listed in parenthesis |
CIA: One of the two new scripted series on CBS's midseason schedule, CIA is the spinoff of its lead-in, the veteran drama FBI. It's the first show in the franchise not to carry the FBI name, and it brings the FBI franchise back to having multiple shows on the air, after International and Most Wanted were axed in a single shot last year. It was a bit unorthodox to see a network canceling multiple shows in a franchise, which would seem to indicate they're moving on from said franchise, while then ordering a new spinoff of the show. FBI itself has had a very rough season, down a pitiful 38% as CBS deprioritized it by shifting it from a Tuesday night anchor slot to the middle of their Monday night mishmash lineup, which saw it paired up with a comedy lineup before it and Watson behind it in the fall. That indicates that FBI itself is probably on the way out soon enough. However, CIA had the best launchpad possible for it on Monday, as FBI lunged to a season-high 0.32. That lead-in resulted in just a 0.20 for CIA, or 63% retention for the absolute most compatible series CBS could've slotted behind FBI. That's weaker retention that we saw for the two previous FBI series when they aired behind FBI, and it's a lower rating than either of them ever hit, though if either one survived, it likely would've dropped dramatically this season, much like FBI. While it pales in comparison to what we saw from the FBI spinoffs last season (when CBS was in a stronger position as a whole), this is - quite importantly - an improvement on anything we saw from Watson in that slot. It's also higher than the season high of NCIS: Sydney, and it ties the season high of Elsbeth, and beats the season average of Boston Blue (though not its season high). Only The Amazing Race has it fully beat in terms of CBS 10 PM series, but that show has a much stronger Survivor lead-in. In all, CIA's debut is not an utter disaster, but it's also not a very encouraging one, either. A 0.20 launch doesn't give it much room to fall, and it's already in a less-than-ideal situation. Marshals seems to be much better-positioned among the two CBS freshman, and. there are already twelve series renewed, comprising eleven hours of programming. CBS has also already ordered two new dramas for next season. There's not much room left on their schedule, and CIA probably needed to overperform to really make a strong case for renewal. The show has already been a bit of a pain for CBS, with production issues pushing it back from a planned fall launch to midseason. Is it worth the hassle for CBS to renew the show just to keep a dying franchise alive? Its streaming performance so far is solid enough, but we won't be getting any concrete data about how many watched in multiplatform viewing for a while yet. What we can plainly see is that its linear ratings aren't very strong, and there's no obvious space for it on the schedule next season, with so many shows already punching their tickets for the 2026-27 season. A Dick Wolf show probably isn't going to go down without a fight, not even on CBS, but this show has felt one-and-done well before it even started, and nothing we saw on premiere night has changed my mind. It leans cancellation out of the starting gate.
DMV: Monday was also a tough night for DMV, as the series returned below-average with a 0.23 rating, losing handedly to NBC's Reggie Dinkins. CBS left it out of their mass renewal for a reason, and this is not the sort of performance that's going to prompt them to renew it after already clearly being on the fence about it. DMV's most obvious path to renewal right now lies in CBS absolutely loving one of their comedy pilots and hating the other, making a DMV renewal a necessity in order to keep another comedy hour on the docket. Does that feel all that likely? Not to me. Eternally Yours has been in development for some time, and they seem to at least be happy with what they've seen from the show in its developmental stages. Regency, meanwhile, is about to be fully-owned by Paramount if their acquisition of WBDiscovery goes through, making it an even more appealing option for a pickup than it was before. Both pilots seem to fit the CBS comedy brand, and CBS is probably more likely to give both a chance than to give a second chance to a show that's already struggling and isn't likely to improve in a second season. DMV's multiplatform ratings were strong at the beginning, and if it's held up in that metric, CBS may still be willing to renew it. However, if CBS were that moved by what they'd seen in multiplatform ratings, I bet it would've been included in their mass renewal. It's a very dicey road ahead, and DMV seems unlikely to survive. It remains a likely cancellation.
Harlan Coben's Final Twist: Though CBS treated the show as a priority during their slow winter months, and repeated it heavily, Harlan Coben himself is now advertising the series on Facebook by implying it's a miniseries, with all five episodes having been released. The show didn't perform in a way that would really encourage CBS to want more, so this being the end of its run would not exactly be a surprise. Its cancellation prediction is now downgraded from leans to certain.
Interactive Schedule:| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Neighborhood | DMV | FBI | CIA | |
| Tues | NCIS | NCIS: Origins | NCIS: Sydney | ||
| Wed | The Price Is Right At Night | Hollywood Squares | Harlan Coben's Final Twist | ||
| Thurs | Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage | Ghosts | Matlock | Elsbeth | |
| Fri | Sheriff Country | Fire Country | Boston Blue | ||
| Sun | Tracker | The Road | Watson | ||
