CBS Renew/Cancel Week 21: What CBS’s Fall Schedule Means for Elsbeth, NCIS: Origins, Ghosts, Matlock, America’s Culinary Cup, FBI & More + Renew/Cancel March Madness Champion Announced!

This week on the CBS Renew/Cancel, there's little to predict this season, but there's still a lot to talk about, as CBS's fall schedule has been announced, with a lot of changes ahead. Keep reading for my takes on some of the biggest moves present on the schedule, including timeslot upgrades for Elsbeth and FBI, shortened seasons of NCIS: Origins and Sydney, and Ghosts and Matlock heading to the bench.

Prediction Key:

Week 21 Predictions:

Shows' 18-49 demo average and weekly peak performance on Paramount+ are in parenthesis

America's Culinary Cup: I said in my most recent update that if CBS is intent on renewing this show, it would likely be announced at the same time as their fall schedule. I did expect the midseason schedule to be released along with the fall schedule, because that's what they've done in recent years, but even though they didn't announce midseason plans, it's probably a bad sign for Culinary Cup that CBS didn't announce a renewal for it last week. CBS did say they wanted a cooking show, and they've promoted this one enough that they haven't seemed to be deterred from that, but maybe its abysmal retention from Survivor really has made them second-guess it. It's not dead yet, but there's no reason CBS wouldn't have renewed it by now if they intended to. It's a likely cancellation.

Harlan Coben's Final Twist: There have been a few missed predictions this year in the CBS Renew/Cancel, but the only outright show is Harlan Coben's Final Twist. The series was low-rated and ran just five episodes, and seemed to be the epitome of midseason filler, something ultra-cheap that could hold CBS over during the months they took off between Christmas and the Olympics. It didn't seem like they viewed it as a long-term series, but they nonetheless renewed it last week by announcing its place on the fall schedule, which is perhaps the most shocking part of it all. CBS has a packed lineup next season, and no one expected them to hand a fall slot to a midseason filler program that only aired five episodes and averaged just 0.16 in the demo, barely out-rating 48 Hours. CBS has enjoyed midseason launches in recent years, with Watson, CIA, and Marshals all debuting midseason and being renewed, so maybe this is their way of avoiding debuting all their new shows in the fall and having a new premiere midseason. If that's the case, maybe Einstein is inheriting this slot. Matlock could be another option, as it's seemingly lost its time slot on Thursdays. Or maybe CBS is already planning on franchising CIA, and we'll have another show in the franchise fast-tracked for a midseason debut. It's been the standard for CBS to announce its midseason plans along with their fall schedule in recent seasons, so it's unusual for us to not have a clue of what could air in this slot, but Final Twist will likely just be a fall affair, and they probably have a pretty good idea of what will take over this slot midseason already.

Elsbeth and FBI: On its face, the fall schedule appeared to be a huge win for Elsbeth and FBI. Both veteran dramas are set for time slot upgrades next season, after fairly poor performances this season in linear ratings. Elsbeth is among CBS's lowest-rated shows in live+same-day ratings, so moving this show that relies heavily on delayed-viewing to a 9 PM slot is a pretty unusual move. FBI hasn't performed quite as badly as Elsbeth in the linear demo, and has ticked up a bit since CIA premiered, but as a partially-owned show heading into its ninth season, it certainly seemed to be on its way out next year. Its poor year-to-year trends after moving to Monday reinforced that, but it's now getting moved to an 8 PM slot, the best place you could air on any network, but especially CBS. So what do these timeslot upgrades actually mean? There is the chance that they could backfire, if they don't improve enough to justify those earlier slots, and CBS may opt to cancel these two shows that both seemed primed to be bubble series next season anyway. In Elsbeth's case, it's possible that CBS is lacking confidence in Cupertino, which was quickly ordered to series before it filmed anything. If they're doubting the potential of Cupertino, perhaps they just didn't want to doom Elsbeth by airing it behind it, while still wanting to air them together for compatibility. If that's the case, it says more about CBS being down on Cupertino than them necessarily being high on Elsbeth. Still, it's a good sign that they're trying not to take Elsbeth down with Cupertino. With FBI, they could be planning on extending its run past season nine, but they could also just be moving the FBI/CIA combo up an hour in preparation for a new CIA franchise. The season after next could see the debut of a new CIA series, as CBS establishes Monday as "CIA night." FBI does seem to have a better chance at sticking around past next season than I ever anticipated, though.

Ghosts and Matlock: Two of CBS's strongest series in multiplatform viewing have been benched, and it's a bit confusing as to why. Eternally Yours was said to be planned as a Ghosts companion. Instead, it seems they won't be airing together, as Ghosts is premiering its full sixth season at midseason Save for two hour-long holiday specials). Either Eternally Yours will be limited to thirteen or so episodes and replaced midseason, or Ghosts is moving somewhere else, though the schedule announcement did seem ti imply Ghosts would remain in its regular slot. Matlock has had a rough season of linear declines, but has still been a top performer in multiplatform gains. With the show having shortened seasons and a serialized storyline that may keep its run fairly short, CBS might just view this show as a lesser priority. It won't be a syndication player, and Elsbeth is more likely to have a long-term future due to its procedural nature and longer seasons, which make it more friendly for a syndication deal. There will be a few slots opening up midseason. Sunday at 10 is a revolving door for CBS programming, and if Matlock moves there, it's a sign it's in trouble. Mondays at 10 should be open, but CBS may prefer to air Einstein there. Wednesdays will seemingly have 90 minutes free, but what could they pair Matlock with if sitcoms are staying limited to Thursday? Cupertino could possibly be limited as well, which means this current Thursday lineup could be seen again next year, even if it's getting broken up in the fall. Wherever it airs, Matlock's unlikely to be a huge linear hit again, as it peaked in season one. However, it does have to chance to stay on the air if it can keep up its strong multiplatform ratings, as it's still one of CBS's highest-rated shows there

NCIS: Origins and NCIS: Sydney: I've long said that CBS's NCIS Night was underwhelming, and though they renewed all three shows, even they seem to agree with that. Origins and Sydney will now share a time slot, marking them as the only CBS veterans confirmed to have an episode cut next season. Sydney not doing a full twenty episode makes sense, as it having a full season this year seemed like an outlier. Origins being shuffled off to 10 PM and cut down to a shorter season is pretty damning, though. CBS really does seem to be underwhelmed by how it's performing, and it may well be on its way out. With NCIS: New York on its way and taking the 9 PM slot, CBS has a promising new NCIS series, and seeing how quickly they can pump out new spinoffs of their top franchises, Origins and Sydney might not be needed much longer. Shortened seasons of a procedural drama isn't very sustainable, and it's not a model we're used to seeing for CBS series. CBS may regret renewing these shows so early, or maybe they're just trying a new scheduling tactic. Regardless, Origins is starting out next season as one of the most vulnerable shows on CBS's packed schedule, though stubbornly sticking to a full night of NCIS could save it again, even with the episode reduction. As for Sydney? Its low ratings don't make much of an argument for renewal at all, but at least it's cheap. CBS may be willing to keep this one on the air, even for limited runs, as long as Australia still wants it.

CBS Renew/Cancel March Madness:

The CBS Renew/Cancel March Madness was expected to wrap up last week, but voting was extended a week due to an incredibly close contest between Ghosts and CIA, with the two series tied up until the end of the week.

Things sure did change in the ensuing extra week of voting. CIA easily pulled ahead, and took 58% of the vote in the end. It's not the first freshman show to claim victory, nor is it the first low seed to do so, but it's still an impressive showing for the series, which had to take down Tracker and FBI to even make the championship game. Ghosts had a s strong showing of its won, survivor far longer than it had in the past.

What do you think of these predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!