NBC Renew/Cancel Week 19: The Hunting Party Isn’t Such Easy Prey After All...

This week on the NBC Renew/Cancel, a show that seemed to be doomed is making a comeback, possibly just in time. Plus, a strong new show solidifies its standing. Keep reading to see which show is on the move and which one seems primed for an upgrade in the near future.

Certain Cancellation:
Brilliant Minds (0.14, 0.11-0.18)

Likely Cancellation:

N/A

Leans Cancellation:
The Hunting Party (0.16, 0.10-0.22)
On Brand with Jimmy Fallon (0.17, 0.14-0.22)
Stumble (0.21, 0.11-0.61)
The Wall (0.16, 0.12-0.19)

Leans Renewal:
Law & Order (0.25, 0.20-0.27)

Likely Renewal:
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins (0.58, 0.28-1.38)
The Voice (0.24, 0.24-0.42)

Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.33, 0.29-0.39)
Chicago Med (0.34, 0.28-0.39)
Chicago PD (0.29, 0.25-0.34)
Dateline NBC (0.18, 0.15-0.20)
Law & Order: SVU (0.29, 0.21-0.33)
Saturday Night Live (0.64, 0.43-0.91)

Already Renewed:
Happy's Place (0.25, 0.18-0.33)
St. Denis Medical (0.31, 0.24-0.37)

The Hunting Party: When The Hunting Party premiered this January, things looked hopeless. In fact, things looked hopeless even before then. Even before airing, the show was pushed to midseason and has its order cut down from a "full season" of 18-22 episodes to only 13. Clearly, NBC's expectations for season two were pretty low. Then, it drew just a 0.10 in the key demo on premiere night, easily a series low, and the lowest rating any scripted show on a Big Four network has hit this season. It was a disaster, and the show seemed doomed for a cancellation by May, which is really what most were expecting since it was renewed in the first place. Its renewal was questionable to begin with, and it was the lowest-rated show of anything NBC renewed last season. However, something kind of amazing has happened: The Hunting Party is turning things around. There was an instant, major change in the ratings the next week, rising to a 0.17. Its retention from SVU was still questionable, but it was undeniably a big improvement on the paltry premiere. Things declined a bit after that, down to a 0.15 for two weeks, and then it went on a break for the Olympics. It returned up again to a 0.17, and then rose to a 0.22 the week after, out-rating six episodes from season one and rating just a single hundredth below its previous series high (not counting its post-NFL premiere, which was significantly higher). I wrote a few weeks back, during its hiatus, about the show's addition to Netflix, with it managing to stay in the streamer's top ten for about a month. That's impressive, seeing as it outlasted several Netflix originals on the chart. It had 3.5 million views in its debut week, and somewhere below 2.3 million in its second week. That was enough to be the #7 show globally for its first week, and #2 in the US. While The Hunting Party's viewership hasn't really risen on linear since its debut, it is possible some of those younger in-demo viewers that binged season one on Netflix decided to tune in on NBC, causing a small ratings boon. Regardless, the show now looks pretty good for a 10 PM show. It's just one rating, but that 0.22 was well ahead of Elsbeth and even Grey's Anatomy last week, and it's really the first time The Hunting Party has show potential. I don't think I have any choice but to upgrade it with ratings like this and a solid streaming debut. However, I still have my concerns. For one, NBC has five drama pilots in contention for next season, and few slots open. They're not acting like a network that's about to hand out renewals to shows that, while on the rise, are still not all that highly-rated. Its multiplatform ratings do still suggest a decline from last season, with 3.9 million viewers in L+7 (down from 4.2 million last season) and a bit more than 5 million with MP ratings factored in (it averaged 7 million last season). I can't help but compare it to last season's Found, which performed decently enough after SVU in linear ratings, but was still canceled by NBC, in part due to underwhelming delayed ratings. The Hunting Party is at least fully owned (unlike Found), but its ratings are still just OK, even after the impressive rise, and NBC may be hoping that one of their many pilots can improve on its performance overall. I also really struggle to get past NBC cutting its episode order before the season began in order to give preferential treatment to literal repeats. I'm not saying its performance this season couldn't have changed their mind on it, but it did feel like they made up their minds on the Hunting Party a while ago, and I'm not sure it's done enough to change them. Its odds have surely improved since the premiere, but I still think it's on the wrong side of the bubble. It leans cancellation at this point.

The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins: Reggie Dinkins had a very strong premiere, and then it declined a somewhat-concerning amount the next week, going from a 0.37 time slot premiere to a 0.28 the week after. Dropping a tenth was never a big deal for a new show in the past, but in recent years, shows haven't been premiering high enough for a one-tenth drop to not be concerning. In the case of Reggie Dinkins, 0.28 is still a very renewable rating, but it was the first warning sign for the show, which didn't have much room to fall from there and was still very early in its run. Assuaging those concerns was its performance a week alter, when it rose a bit to a 0.30, rising with its St. Denis Medical lead-in. The two shows so far are looking like a very compatible and strong pair. St. Denis is barely rating lower than the Chicago shows (and actually beating PD) for the season overall, and Reggie is keeping up with it the best it can. This duo looks like a winner so far, a pair that can get reliable 0.3s and keep up with CBS's comedy block (Reggie has beaten DMV in all three of its head-to-head matchups, which isn't much of an accomplishment given that show's likely fate) in the only hour of the week in which two networks are airing comedies against one another. This week's rise doesn't mean Reggie Dinkins has stabilized yet, but it's a good sign, and it's moving closer and closer to certain renewal status. For now, it remains a strong likely renewal, as NBC's comedy brand continues to strengthen.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	St. Denis Medical	Reggie Dinkins	The Voice	Brilliant Minds
Tues	NBA on NBC
Wed	Chicago Med		Chicago Fire	Chicago PD
Thurs	Law & Order		Law & Order: SVU	The Hunting Party
Fri	Happy's Place	Stumble	Dateline NBC
Sat	Encores
Sun	Sunday Night Basketball