On Wednesdays, I am taking a look at the major Emmy categories before nominations are revealed in July. This week, I am looking at the big three races: Comedy Series, Drama Series and Limited/Anthology Series!
COMEDY SERIES
As usual, there will be eight nominees in the comedy series category and last year's winner, The Studio, is not in the mix. It feels like every year of the 2020s has included the same core of comedies nominated: Hacks (winner in 2024), The Bear (winner in 2023), Abbott Elementary and Only Murders in the Building. Hacks, Abbott Elementary and Only Murders seem almost certain to be among the nominees again. Many are pegging Hacks as the winner for its final season but I am a bit skeptical about that because it's rare for a show to win then lose then win again across years. But we'll get to that conversation about winners later, this is about nominees and Hacks is definitely getting in. Abbott and Only Murders may not be as strong as they once were but it would be surprising to not see them get in among the eight. So the big question is The Bear. The show went from winning the whole thing to still a strong player to getting blanked for wins. Is getting shut out of a nomination next? It very well could be. I think it's teetering on the edge of a nomination at the moment.
Another returnee is Shrinking, which will almost surely get in again for its third season. It may have had more acclaim for its second season but it feels like it has cemented itself as a staple in the category. It's a bit shakier for Nobody Wants This, which had a mixed reception to its second season and seems to have lost momentum since airing last fall. But it still was well-seen so it could definitely get in. There are some other former nominees out there: Wednesday, Palm Royale, Jury Duty, and (yes) Emily in Paris but I'd be surprised if any of them return to the pack (though Jury Duty was a complete surprise the first time around so who's to say it couldn't do it again).
The two newbies with the strongest chances of breaking in are both Apple TV shows. Margo's Got Money Troubles feels very Emmy-baity and it was generally well-received though it didn't seem like it broke through in a huge way. A show that has broken through in such a big way that it went from an unlikely nominee to a likely nominee is Widow's Bay. The buzz has come on so strong for the new horror comedy that if it manages to get into the field, it could absolutely be win competitive.
HBO also has two comedy contenders that are both stronger players for their lead than the series but could still get in. Rooster and The Comeback are both near shoo-ins for their stars Steve Carell and Lisa Kudrow. The series getting in is less of a sure thing. The Comeback got Kudrow nominations for its first two seasons a decade ago and two decades ago but never got in the series race and Rooster received mixed reviews.
A few dark horses include The Chair Company, which just doesn't seem like its getting enough traction, I Love LA, The Four Seasons, Big Mistakes and The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins. Any of those would definitely qualify as upsets. I would personally love to see The Lowdown get in but it doesn't seem like it'll happen.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. Hacks
2. Shrinking
3. Only Murders in the Building
4. Abbott Elementary
5. Widow's Bay
6. Margo's Got Money Troubles
7. The Comeback
8. The Bear
Just Behind
9. Nobody Wants This
10. Rooster
11. Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat
DRAMA SERIES
While I think Comedy Series is more of a race than some, I am in agreement that Drama Series is pretty much locked up. It seems hard to imagine any show beating The Pitt. Partly because The Pitt is so successful and partly because there isn't any shiny new show strong enough to pull audience's attention away. But this is about nominations and The Pitt is a lock for a nomination. So what will be the other seven shows on the list?
The next strongest show is probably Paradise, which has a lot of Emmy love (for some reason...). It seems very likely to get in again for its second season. At this point, Slow Horses is a perennial Emmy nominee so a third straight nomination is close to a lock. The Diplomat got in last year for a season that received a very mixed reception so it is very likely it will repeat for a season that was much better received. The Gilded Age aired about a year ago but I still think it will get in after it got a nod for its second season.
Those are the returning shows that seem very likely to get in but there are other potential returning nominees whose chances range from "on the fence" to not likely at all. That starts with two long-timers: Euphoria and Stranger Things. Euphoria got in for its second season but the third season was very divisive so it could be on the outside looking in. Stranger Things is an interesting case. On the one hand, it feels like its days of getting Emmy noms are behind it. But on the other hand, it's probably the most watched show on the list and it has managed to get in the Series Race every time and it has a lot of technical support. Don't be surprised if it gets in for one last hurrah. If Euphoria and Stranger Things have a chance, I'm not sure you can say the same for Bridgerton, The Morning Show, Fallout, Squid Game and The Boys. All four have been nominated before but don't seem likely to return. They are worth mentioning though because you never know.
As far as new shows, it seems like Pluribus is leading the pack. Though the show seems to have lost some momentum since its fall run, I'd be really surprised if it misses. It was too well-liked by fans of the medium and critics so I think it has a spot secured. I also have come around on Task getting a nomination. I wasn't so sure at first after it underperformed at the winter awards but I think its stature has actually grown a bit and it seems likely to get a nomination.
There's also two sequel shows among the contenders. Game of Thrones and The Handmaid's Tale have had lots of Emmy love so will that extend to A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms and The Testaments? Knight seems like it has a really good chance. House of the Dragon has gotten in and Knight was much better received by fans and critics than Dragon. I think it's a longer shot for The Testaments, which has drawn a big audience but may be on the outside looking in, especially after Handmaid eventually cratered in the Emmy discussion after a few big years.
A few others worth mentioning are Industry, which is beloved by many critics but has never been able to get in the Emmy race, Off Campus, which could get the Heated Rivalry love since Heated is ineligible, and Landman. A few dark horses include It: Welcome to Derry, Alien: Earth, broadcast representative High Potential and the cancelled The Boroughs.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. The Pitt
2. Paradise
3. The Diplomat
4. Pluribus
5. Slow Horses
6. Task
7. The Gilded Age
8. A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
Just Behind
9. Stranger Things
10. Euphoria
11. The Testaments
LIMITED/ANTHOLOGY SERIES
Unlike Comedy and Drama, the number of Limited/Anthology Series contending is dictated by the number of submissions so there will be five contenders in the category this year. As I've mentioned with acting races, the Limited Series field is full of shows that were generally well seen but received a bit of a shrug from critics. That starts with the second season of Beef. The first season cleaned up a few years ago but there was more of a mixed response for the second and it seemed to come and go quickly. In a stronger year, I would be more worried about it. But this isn't a strong year and I think the recognizable title gets it in.
The Beast in Me was probably one of the most viewed limited series this year (always hard to know for sure with streaming data). Despite the mixed reception, I think it will get in. Love Story is a complicated one. The show received a fair amount of controversy but I still think it's going to get in. Like Beef, it may have had some trouble in a tougher year. The next show worth mentioning might be DTF St. Louis which started with mixed reception but seemed to be a hit with viewers and gain some momentum as the season continued. I think at this point it is getting in.
I don't know what to make of Half Man. It definitely wasn't as well watched as many of the series listed above and it is so darn depressing. But it also feels like an Emmys player and Richard Gadd was an Emmy darling with Baby Reindeer not too long ago. This feels like a show I am going to predict to get in even though I really feel like it could miss and then I'll be mad when it does miss. But I really could see it getting in because it seems like a drop-off of contenders after that.
If All Her Fault was on a service other than Peacock, I would be feeling good about it getting in but Peacock has historically struggled big time to get Emmy love, especially in major categories. This could be the show to break that though. Many thought Lord of the Flies would be a late push Emmy powerhouse but that hasn't really come to pass and it's on the outside looking in now. Many are writing off Monster: The Ed Gein Story but I'm not doing that yet because the first two seasons of Monster both got into the series race even though they also received mixed reviews. Death by Lightning may have been the best reviewed of the bunch but it definitely seems like it's on the outside looking in. His and Hers and Black Rabbit were both well-seen because they are on Netflix but they don't seem likely to break into a field of five. Maybe if it was eight like the Comedy and Drama series.
A few dark horses include The Girlfriend, Murdaugh: Death in the Family, Something Very Bad is Going to Happen, Imperfect Women and Bait.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. Beef
2. The Beast in Me
3. DTF St. Louis
4. Love Story
5. Half Man
Just Behind
6. Monster: The Ed Gein Story
7. All Her Fault
8. Death by Lightning
Next Week: My Final Predictions in All Major Races!
