Summer Renew/Cancel Week 4: The Republic of Sarah and Celebrity Dating Game on Shaky Ground

Summer TV got a bit busier as both The CW and ABC premiered new series in the past week, including a new scripted drama and a new game show. Keep reading for my initial thoughts on both of these series, plus my analysis on Beat Shazam!

Certain to be Canceled:

Likely to be Canceled:
Emergency Call (0.4*)
Mental Samurai (0.3)
Small Fortune (0.3)

Leans Cancellation:

Leans Renewal:
The Celebrity Dating Game (0.4)
Crime Scene Kitchen (0.5)
HouseBroken (0.3)
Kids Say the Darndest Things (0.4)
LEGO Masters (0.5)
The Republic of Sarah (0.1)

Likely to be Renewed:
The $100,000 Pyramid (0.4)
Beat Shazam (0.5)
Press Your Luck (0.5)

Certain to be Renewed:
America's Got Talent (0.8)
American Ninja Warrior (0.5)
Celebrity Family Feud (0.8)
The Chase (0.6)
Hell's Kitchen (0.6)
MasterChef (0.6)
To Tell the Truth (0.5)

Fate Determined:
The Bachelorette (Renewed)
Burden of Truth (Final Season)
Duncanville (Renewed)
Dynasty (Renewed)
Holey Moley (Renewed)
In the Dark (Renewed(
Legends of Tomorrow (Renewed)
Riverdale (Renewed)
Roswell, New Mexico (Renewed)
Stargirl (Renewed)
Supergirl (Final Season)

Yet to Premiere:
Bachelor in Paradise
Big Brother
Capital One College Bowl
Card Sharks
Dead Pixels
Fantasy Island
Family Game Fight!
Good Girls
The Hustler
Love Island
Making It
The Outpost
Ultimate Slip 'n Slide
The Ultimate Surfer
Wellington Paranormal
When Nature Calls

Beat Shazam: Last week, Beat Shazam rose in the 18-49 demo to a 0.5 (nearly a 0.6, actually), rebounding from a so-so premiere and winning the night. Aside from Gordon Ramsay's shows, nothing does better than this on Fox in the summer. Heck, a bunch of their in-season shows don't do any better than this. While I'm not entirely certain that it'll be back, it looks perfect fine from a ratings perspective. Nothing about its performance thus far suggests that it's in much danger at all. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL.

The Republic of Sarah: Despite premiering out of The CW's #1 show All American, expectations were still low for new CW original The Republic of Sarah. It's extremely rare for The CW to ever debut a new original series (AKA, a show they actually produce and don't just get US airing rights for, as with Burden of Truth). Conventional wisdom would say that that is a sign that this show isn't something they care all that much about. However, The CW has adapted differently than the other networks amid the COVID pandemic, running many of their signature series into the summer. For Sarah, a summer launch isn't a sign of certain death. However... it did not do very well on Monday! Out of a 0.3 from All American, it could only manage a 0.1 in the all-important (well, somewhat important) 18-49 demo. Shows on The CW live and die by their streaming deals. Almost none of these shows would survive based on their ratings alone (most rate lower than shows on basic cable networks). I haven't heard anything about a streaming deal for this show, but that doesn't mean it won't get one. The CW tends to renew nearly everything unless it stars Lucy Hale, so that's a good sign for it. It's certainly not a lock like the rest of the CW's shows were, but as of right now I think a renewal is more likely than not. It LEANS RENEWAL.

The Celebrity Dating Game: Launching out of The Bachelorette, this new game show didn't break out in any way. Its 50% retention was certainly nothing for ABC to feel excited about, given that there's been plenty of shows in that post-Bachelorette slot to do pretty much exactly that. Losing half your lead-in on premiere night isn't exactly an encouraging sign, especially when this is one of the most compatible shows to air in this slot in recent years. However, 0.4 isn't that bad for a 10 PM slot, and surely ABC isn't expecting anything to rate anywhere close to The Bachelorette. They do seem dedicated to it, though, airing a repeat on Wednesday (preempting the planned midseason premiere of Card Sharks). I find it hard to believe that they'd give up so easily on the show when its ratings are passable thus far, so it stars as LEANS RENEWAL.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

Where would you place The Celebrity Dating Game?
Certain Renewal
Likely Renewal
Leans Renewal
Leans Cancellation
Likely Cancellation
Certain Cancellation

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