2020-21 Drama Scorecard: FINAL PREDICTIONS

 31 of the 59 dramas on display have already been renewed, another 4 declared their final season prior to their premieres and another 4 were given the axe mid-season.  That leaves 20 dramas to be determined in up fronts next week.  Unlike the sitcoms which had a bleaker season, the dramas are in high demand and still succeeding with several hit players still on the map.  Space will be needed for programming on the 2021-22 season, and the final predictions are posted.


Only Big Sky and The Good Doctor have been handed renewals, and ABC tends to play coyly with revealing which shows they are keeping and discarding.  However, all but one series is predicted to be returning as For Life tanked during a better time in the season.  Rebel also remains at Leans Renewal due to holding close to its premiere audience despite not capitalizing on Grey's Anatomy as a lead-in.  The Rookie recently received an upgrade to Likely Renewal due to American Idol hemorrhaged this season and The Rookie has held steady.  And A Million Little Things received a downgrade to the same category as well due to losing ground moving back to Wednesday.


Following their renewal trend from 2017, CBS renewed a hefty load of programs, cancelled a few and left a small pile in limbo.  This year, dramas All Rise, Clarice and SEAL Team were left among the dramas to be determined.  The network surprised viewers and unexpectedly cancelled modest players NCIS: New Orleans and MacGyver, freeing up two timeslots.  Easiest to determine is Clarice will get cancelled as its ratings shed 60% of the premiere and the drama fails to capitalize on evenings the earlier sitcoms experience windfalls.  SEAL Team remains a Likely Renewal as its performance remained sturdy and in line with the evening's ratings.  However, David Boreanaz costs a premium to employ.  All Rise unfortunately exhibits the same ratings behavior Clarice has with failing to capitalize on evenings which the lead-in sitcoms experienced surges.  All Rise is still marketable, but will only be picked up if space is available, leaving it at Leans Cancellation


Having two dramas not renewed or declared as their last season is a rarity on CW.  However, both are mid-year programming.  The Outpost was handed an additional 13 episodes, demonstrating CW is dependent on it and leads to indicators for Certain Renewal.  As for Dead Pixels, it is a Likely Renewal.


Having only 4 dramas on display makes it obvious who is staying and going.  The 9-1-1 duo is sturdy and is Certain for Renewal, along with The Resident who has maintained steadiness on Tuesdays (in prior seasons, a night used to put shows out to the pasture.  That leaves Prodigal Son as a Likely Cancellation due to ratings hemorrhages.  FOX promoted Prodigal Son properly, helped it develop an audience behind 9-1-1 last season and gave it fewer scheduling disruptions than most networks.  There is little more that can be done to develop Prodigal Son.


The network is known for handing shows multiple season renewals.  That leaves a handful of either newer or lower-rated shows to prove themselves.  Law and Order: Organized Crime experienced an explosive debut and settled in line with SVU.  Certain Renewal is predicted.  The remainder of the shows have softer ratings across several nights.  Manifest returned on Thursday to softer ratings though it did improve on how the sitcoms performed in that timeslot.  And The Good Girls delivers lower but solid ratings below 0.40 on Sundays at 10:00.  Both shows are Likely Renewals.  Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist received a timeslot upgrade for 6 episodes yet cannot produce strong ratings.  However, it colonizes Sundays like Good Girls and Leans Renewal.  The show certain to be cancelled is Debris, which often retains only 40-50% of lead-in The Voice's audience.


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