Certain to be Canceled:
N/A
Likely to be Canceled:
Mental Samurai (0.2)
Leans Cancellation:
N/A
Crime Scene Kitchen (0.7)
Likely to be Renewed:
Certain to be Renewed:
Fate Determined:
The Bachelorette (Renewed)
Crime Scene Kitchen: Premiering after the finale of The Masked Singer, Crime Scene Kitchen got off to a start that would make it look pretty safe if it did it on its own, but is pretty shaky for a post-Masked Singer start. We saw how Game of Talents, which premiered to the same 0.7 that Kitchen got, held up without its big lead-in (hint: not well!), so the jury is most definitely still out on this one. Still, it's hard to predict anything other than a renewal for a cheap reality series with a 0.7 average in an era in which shows are getting renewed after hitting 0.3s. It'll take a few weeks to get a clear image on this one, but for now it LEANS RENEWAL.
Press Your Luck and The $100,000 Pyramid: Also premiering on Wednesday were the first two shows in ABC's Wednesday Summer Fun & Games lineup. While The Masked Singer undoubtedly helped Crime Scene Kitchen, it was (most likely) a hindrance to this lineup, which drew double 0.4s for their season premieres, a new low for Press Your Luck and a tied low for Pyramid. With them both being casually-viewed shows, it's quite likely that the finales of high-rated currently-running shows like Masked Singer and the One Chicago series would ding them, as these shows are used to having very little competition at the start of their season. That gives me hope that they'll tick up or at least stay steady this season, opposed to their regular trend of premiering high before experiencing heavy declines over the season. 0.4s should be enough to secure additional seasons, but 0.4 isn't a high enough premiere to not have any doubts in their renewal odds, so Press Your Luck and Pyramid both start as LIKELY RENEWALS.
Mental Samurai: It was a very mediocre performer in season one, with just a 0.53 average against a 0.95 league average during the 2018-19 season. However, it flat-out bombed in season two with just a 0.2 premiere, despite being hosted by Rob Lowe, star of Fox's #2 show 9-1-1: Lone Star. That can't be entirely blamed on the show, given that it had a 0.2 lead-in, but it clearly can't stand on its own. I don't know why Fox would want to bring back a 0.2 show, even if it is cheap, when even repeats could do better in that slot. Barring a major jump once LEGO Masters debuts this week, Mental Samurai is a LIKELY CANCELLATION and will remain so.
Kids Say the Darndest Things: Canceled by ABC and inexplicably saved a year later by CBS, this Tiffany Haddish-hosted reality show has been a weak performer in its second season with a 0.36 average. That's even worse than Tough As Nails, a CBS favorite that averaged a 0.46 in the slot. However, I still think it's getting renewed. This isn't that much weaker than its late season one ratings, and the show seems to be casting for a third season. Plenty of reality shows have announced casting calls and still been canceled, so it's not a lock for a third season, but it still seems more likely than not. CBS didn't just revive this show out of the goodness of their hearts, they clearly saw an opportunity for it to make money. As long as they still view it as being profitable, it'll be renewed. It LEANS RENEWAL.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
