Law & Order: SVU Renewed for Season 28

NBC has confirmed the renewal of another veteran drama, a week out from the renewals of their Chicago trio. Law & Order: SVU, the longest-running drama in TV history, will be back for season 28 next year. SVU remains a top performer for NBC, especially on streaming, averaging 0.30 in the key demo this season to date. The series is having its best season on Peacock to date, up 27% from last season and consistently ranking as the service's most-watched NBC series. While only being announced today, SVU is said to have been quietly renewed for season 28 an entire year ago, having received a two-season pickup last May. That would explain why its renewal was dragged out until May last year, though why they waited until now to announce it remains to be seen. SVU stars Mariska Hargitay, Ice-T, Peter Scanavino, and Kelli Giddish, and is one of the crown jewels of Dick Wolf's TV empire. This is a correct prediction for The TV Ratings Guide.

2021-22 Drama Scorecard (9/21 - 10/25): All American Debuts Strong on CW; Matches Series Low of A Million Little Things on ABC

 CW often belts shows out in the 2021-22 season with ratings between 0.05-0.10.  This made All American's 0.23 debut jolting as it not only almost quadrupled most of their shows, but cracked into the Top 100 of 125 shows on the air.  All American's ratings are indeed down from the prior season but demonstrate strong interest in the show.  Only one episode has aired so a renewal prediction will wait until next week.

More noticeable is that episode matched A Million Little Things' series low this season, and consequently it is ABC's lowest-rated drama until Queens' final numbers are posted.  In the prior season, ABC was a heavyweight in the drama category thanks to its winning block with Station 19, Grey's Anatomy and AMLT on Thursdays, plus a mild breakout hit with Big Sky on Tuesdays.  This season, all have lost massive ground, most noticeable Grey's and Station 19 who have lost 30-35%.  This dropped ABC's drama ranking from 2nd to 4th over one season.  Given these drops, deciphering which dramas will be axed is tedious.  The Rookie has been soft on Sundays, AMLT is hemorrhaging and Big Sky has collapsed and retains a paltry 55-60% of Grey's lead-in.  

Consequently, CBS has stabilized by utilizing the formula for procedural franchises.  Most of its helpings are delivering stable to above average, save for Bull and CSI: Vegas.  Their impatient changes last year are paying off and they no longer resemble America's most tired network.  FOX also rinsed and repeated last fall's strategy of testing out its weakest dramas in the fall behind decent to strong leads, both of which likely will be lopped off the schedule.  Little changes occurred on NBC as their Chicago and Law & Order franchise blocks deliver strong on Wednesday and Thursday, and dramas are strewn throughout the schedule.  La Brea made an impressive debut in This Is Us' vacant timeslot, but Ordinary Joe is under-performing in the post-Voice timeslot on Mondays.  New Amsterdam and Blacklist are bombing, but life at NBC is mostly stable with 6 winning dramas.

2021-22 Season-To-Date Report (9/1-10/18) -- Seasonal Drops Have Pushed The Voice Out of the Top 10

Scripted programming entering the top 10 was a rarity the prior season, only occasionally punctuated by a NFL-inflated Sunday evening program entering the arena.  That season was shared by sports and reality TV programming in the top 10 reaches of the chart.  That however, has changed early in this season as most sturdy reality TV franchises hang out in the top 20, and on occasion claw their way into the top 10 like Masked Singer does when a Football Inflated Simpsons or 60 Minutes entry isn't pushing it down.  The Voice, Masked Singer and even Bachelor(ette) programming enjoyed top-10 for over 15 years.

2021-22 Season-To-Date Report (9/1-10/3): Law & Order Emerges as The Strongest Franchise Among Scripted Shows

 3 seasons back, a noticeable trend emerged with scripted programming fading in power while Reality TV and Sports continued to deliver strong.  All have lost ground in the 18-49 Adult Demographic Nielsen race, but scripted shows experienced noticeably sharper drops.  Last season, 9-1-1, Grey's Anatomy, Station 19, NCIS, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit, Law & Order: Organized Crime, The Simpsons, This is Us, Chicago PD, Chicago Med and Chicago Fire all managed to break the 1.0 benchmark in season.  In 2021-22 season, only a NFL-Inflated The Simpsons broke that metric with a 1.18 rating, and the remainder of the mentions only reached to 0.87.  

2021-22 Drama Scorecard (9/21-10/1): The Rookie Is...

 Read the table below and gather a sense of what is going on with another season of Nielsen drops.  Last season's heavy-hitters, 9-1-1 and Grey's Anatomy have drifted from extraordinary to ordinary hits.  Not a single scripted series on radar has registered above the 1.0 mark, showing a climate change for Broadcast Television as those numbers only exist in Reality TV and sports.  Among the first two weeks' entries, many question if The Rookie may be done this season.  It may indeed be a possibility as Nathan Fillion's salary comes at a premium, much like Ellen Pompeo's salary on Grey's Anatomy.  

Another victorious factor to examine is The Rookie registered a 0.36 18-49 Adult Demo rating out of Supermarket Sweep's 0.44.  This is indeed a noticeable lead-out, but Big Sky delivered a 0.37 out of Grey's Anatomy's 0.77, and The Good Doctor delivered an underwhelming 0.41 out of Dancing With The Stars' 0.72 entry.  The Rookie's retention, coupled against a less desirable timeslot leaves it leaning toward renewal with the math presented.  Shows need two-plus Nielsen ratings to have renewal odds predicted unless renewed or cancelled, which is why most of the chart reads purple below.

Not all shows lost ground, or shifted into a better place.  Law & Order: SVU has found a mild renaissance in its 23rd season, having grown almost 30%, and its fellow franchise Organized Crime is enjoying the surge in compatible scheduling.  Grey's Anatomy took a hit, but fellow spinoff Station 19 is neck to neck in Nielsen performance and indicating it is well established.  The Chicago-verse (another overdone franchise) is also down but sturdy with all entries delivering in the upper echelon of the charts.

Some color coding updates exist in the chart.  As mentioned above, series with only one rating registered are colored purple and will update with more rating performance.  Also, series which have concluded their run inside the season will switch to a red front to indicate their data is no longer tracked.