Certain to Land on the Naughty List:
N/A
Likely to Land on the Naughty List :
N/A
Leans towards Landing on the Naughty List:
For Life (0.4, 0.3-0.5)
Leans towards Landing on the Nice List:
Big Sky (0.7, 0.6-0.7)
Coming Soon:
Call Your Mother
Mixed-ish
Rebel
The Rookie
Women of the Movement
For the most part, despite declining ratings, most shows on ABC are in for a pretty happy holidays. I expect most of their fall series to receive renewals. Station 19, their #2 drama, is a certain bet to end up on ABC's nice list. While it's dropped in the ratings with each passing week, its 0.98 average is still well ahead of most of ABC's shows and it is in no danger, even with ratings declines certain to come as the season goes on. Also certainly landing on the nice list is Blackish. Based on ratings, it's probably deserving of landing on the naughty list, but its 0.4 season low is excused thanks to the heavy profits that ABC makes from the show, which they own. Syndication and streaming deals have helped it expand into a franchise, and with another spinoff potentially on the way, ABC looks comitted to it. Rounded out the list of shwos certian to remain on the (Hanukkah) nice list is The Goldbergs. It's the shakiest entry of this list, and a ratings drop this season has made be question how long it has left, but in the end, I'd still be beyond shocked to see the show end. It's ABC's #1 comedy this season and there haven't been any hints that they're considering ending it. I find it hard to believe tht they won't fight for it to come back.
Less safe, but still in fine shape, are the shows that are only likely to end up on the nice list. At the top of that list is Grey's Anatomy, which is only in this category over worries that star Ellen Pompeo may be ready to wrap things up. Also looking good is The Good Doctor, which has posted moderate results thus far this season but for the most part is an above-average 10 PM performer. Roseanne offshoot The Conners has taken a huge dip in the ratings in its new timeslot, but it remains one of the better-performing broadcast comedies, and ABC should be able to bring it back for at least one more season. American Housewife has always been treated like an afterthought, but it continues to deliver solid retention from The Goldbergs and doesn't seem too expensive. There's been behind-the-scenes drama with it, but for the most part, it looks like it'll be back. Looking the shakiest here is A Million Little Things, which slipped to a 0.5 last week. On its own, a 0.5 at 10 PM is fine. However, with a 1.2 lead-in, ABC can't be too thrilled about a 0.5. AMLT might not last much longer in this timeslot, and may move to some other slot. I think that's far more likely than a cancellation, given that it seems to make ABC some money and seems like a decent streaming performer.
Leaning towards a place on the nice list is Big Sky, which still looks pretty strong five episodes into its run. As I've previously said, I'm waiting to upgrade it until after I see its performance in January. Until then, it remains a narrow favorite.
The only show looking like it will end up on the naughty list is For Life. The legal drama was only an OK performer for ABC in season one and has declined a bit in season two, averaging 0.4 in its fall run, ranging from a 0.3 to a 0.5. This week's 0.4 didn't change much. Its retention from The Great Christmas Light Fight isn't great, but they're so uncompatible that For Life didn't really need to gain much from that increased lead-in. Its true test will be in January, when it airs behind new show Call Your Mother. Its retention from that show will help me better gauge its true strength.
What do you think of my predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
