Prediction Key:
Week 1 Predictions:
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| Shows' 18-49 demo average and peak performance on Paramount+ are listed in parenthesis |
DMV: CBS will debut just one new comedy this season, and it's single-cam workplace comedy DMV. It was one of several sitcom pilots that CBS had to choose from last season, including a spinoff of The Neighborhood and a pilot starring Zarna Garg that reportedly tested well. DMV tested even better, and was selected as the lone new comedy to debut this season. Its series order also doomed Poppa's House, the only bubble comedy on a network unwilling to expand comedy past two hours, despite sitcom success. Out of the starting gate, the move wasn't a disaster. It's premiered in-line with Poppa's House, failing to improve the slot, but retaining The Neighborhood about as well as Poppa did a the end of the season (though its premiere rating and retention was a bit worse than Poppa). Like Poppa's House, it hasn't made the top ten on Paramount+ just yet, which is an early warning sign. Poppa's weak streaming performance certainly didn't help its case, and DMV doesn't seem to be an improvement in that regard. We'll know more if CBS releases and delayed viewing data, but such detailed date won't be coming in the near future. So for now, we have a show that looks solid enough, but is by no means safe. DMV is produced in Montreal, which makes it a more cost-effective option than the LA-filmed Poppa's House (and The Neighborhood). Its premiere rating is enough for it to start in the green, but scheduling space will be a major factor in its renewal. If CBS has two sitcom projects that they want to try out next season, DMV is likely doomed. If they decide to cut another hour of comedy now that The Neighborhood is ending an eight-season run as the Monday night lead-off, DMV is utterly doomed. CBS doesn't appear to be gearing up for a comedy cut, but it's too early to write it off entirely - especially if DMV fails to hold up. It begins as a leans renewal prediction, but more information is needed to be too sure of anything here.
Watson: Doctor, doctor, it's bad news: Watson is a ratings catastrophe. Posting just 52% retention of its lead-in, which itself was only a 0.3, Watson is starting as CBS's most likely cancellation. We're barely into the season, and another renewal already looks incredibly unlikely. It's luckily flopping this hard in a 10 PM slot, which does make it look a bit better, but there's no way to spin this premiere in a positive way. Watson even lost head-to-head against fellow ratings-challenged sophomore medical drama Brilliant Minds, despite a repeat of Watson tying an original Brilliant Minds just a week before. Watson was already a questionable renewal last season, but CBS seemed to like it, based on its post-NFL preview and heavy promotion, so its renewal wasn't a terrible surprise. What was a surprise is that it found its way to the fall schedule, as it was set for a short midseason run before CIA's delayed start pushed it up to fall. CIA's arrival can't come soon enough, but Watson was expanded to twenty episodes this season, so it will be interesting to see how CBS schedules it going into 2026. Regardless of where it lands, its current ratings are low enough for it to already be a likely cancellation, though it did at least make the Paramount+ chart this week.
NCIS Night: Talk about too little, too late. CBS once boasted NCIS series set in New Orleans, Los Angeles, and Hawaii, all of which rated fairly well. Slowly but surely, all were canceled within the last five years. It was only after all were canceled that CBS finally decided to dedicate a full night to NCIS programs. They did so with the flagship NCIS and two other series that haven't exactly been ratings success stories. Airing behind NCIS is its prequel series, which differs a bit from the typical NCIS format that audiences have become accustomed to. Capping off the night is an international production that was never even intended to air in America until CBS needed something to air during a fall season riddled be strikes. NCIS: Sydney did well enough that season to warrant being brought back, as it's a cost-effective series. This is not exactly a cohesive block, despite all carrying the NCIS banner. There isn't much flow to the lineup, and it feels like a move made out of desperation rather than a true attempt at shining a light on one of their longest-running franchises. The ratings reflected this. NCIS returned flat with last season's finale, which aired at 9 PM. It came in slightly below the average for the Monday comedy block in the same 8 PM hour, but that's still as good as it got for "NCIS Tuesday." NCIS: Origins returned with a 0.23 in the key demo, down from its season one average (and finale) despite a time slot upgrade. And NCIS: Sydney was a total bust, garnering just a 0.14 in the demo. Not only is that a series low, it's also the lowest rating we've seen for a regularly-scheduled CBS scripted series. Not just this season, but ever. NCIS returned strong enough on streaming (ranking at #2 on Paramount+ the day after the premiere), and NCIS: Origins was in-line with how it was performing at the end of last season (#8 on Paramount + the next day), but Sydney remains a weak link there. It was among CBS's lowest-rated series last season in multiplatform ratings, and has shown that it doesn't really have a dedicated audience. 10 PM was always going to be a challenge for it, and it's not surprising that its linear ratings are now matching the weakness that was apparent in multiplatform ratings. In all, NCIS night is a misfire so far, with NCIS doing its best to keep it afloat, but is itself showing its age. An all-night NCIS block would've worked better back when New Orleans was getting off the ground in 2014, or even back when they still had LA and Hawaii around as decent performers. What they have now just isn't a ratings winner. NCIS starts as a leans renewal prediction for now, but it's unlikely to be outright canceled without getting a final season sendoff, and is the safest of the trio. NCIS: Origins starts on the right side of the bubble thanks to its decent multiplatform performance last season, but it could definitely find itself in trouble, and also just leans renewal. And despite its low costs, NCIS: Sydney is just too low-rated to start as a renewal prediction. A renewal in Australia would help matters, and is the reason its prediction is not harsher, but there's no saying that CBS would even air it next season if it continues to perform so poorly. It leans cancellation.
Survivor: Little needs to be said about Jeff Probst's long-running reality staple. Due to air its milestone 50th season next year, Survivor fans have no need to worry that that'll be the end of its run. It's still easily CBS's highest-rated series (not counting the NFL-boosted 60 Minutes), and CBS expanded it to 90 minutes from its longtime hour-long runtime during the strike and hasn't reverted, largely due to how well it does for them. Survivor allows CBS to have a mostly stress-free Wednesday night, and they surely have bigger problems on their hands. It's a certain renewal.
The Amazing Race: Though not the hit that Survivor is, The Amazing Race is also a longtime CBS staple, and is nearing its fortieth season. It's already filmed a thirty-ninth season, which is not currently scheduled to air this year, but is not officially scheduled for next year, either. With it filming so early, it doesn't seem out of the question that that season could end up airing this season after all. The Amazing Race has been called off the bench in the pass when CBS's new shows have struggled, as it's a fairly reliable performer for them, even if its retention from Survivor is poor. Given that it's not currently confirmed that it's renewed for the 2026-27 season, I'll predict that it's likely to be airing on CBS next season, even if the thirty-ninth season airs this season.
And now for some quick updates on predictions for show we don't yet have final ratings for:
Georgie & Mandy's First Marriage: The latest continuation of the "SheldonVerse" franchise, Georgie & Mandy has been another successful entry. While not quite as strong as Young Sheldon, it did a good job of keeping the Thursday night lineup afloat last season, and it renewal was never in doubt. We obviously don't have final ratings for it yet, but there's no reason to expect it to be canceled this season, either. Skydance is looking to buy its production company (Warner Bros), which would make it the first Sheldon series to ever be fully-owned. That would be another boost for a show that's already on solid footing. Its streaming performance this week is the only warning sign. While it didn't chart at the beginning of last season, by the second half of season one, it was a consistent presence on the Paramount+ the day after it aired - sometimes even spending multiple days in the top ten. It's possible that this show just has a slow start and grows over time, but this could be a sign of a sophomore slump. We'll know more once we get a few weeks of ratings, so it remains a certain renewal.
Matlock: A surprise hit last season, Matlock was given a big show of confidence by CBS this season with a post-NFL premiere on a special night. That airing got a 0.51, which wasn't that much higher than its finale rating in its regular slot, but was still a series high. It was a fairly underwhelming start, given its lead-in (which averaged 0.92 in the 8 PM half-hour), but nothing to necessitate a prediction downgrade, especially when post-NFL ratings aren't really a reliable display of a show's true strength to begin with. Its performance on Paramount+ has been strong, performing the best of any Thursday show on Friday (peaking at #4) and charting nearly every day since its Sunday premiere. With CBS still being high on it and its streaming performance being stronger than ever, it remains a certain renewal.
Elsbeth: While one of CBS's lowest-rated shows in linear viewing, Elsbeth has established itself as a strong delayed performer, rising from the bottom of the crop to #5 in delayed viewing last season, with CBS reporting it averaged 12.1 million viewers in their mid-season MP+35 ratings report. That tied it with franchise-spawning show Fire Country and put it ahead of NCIS, even if you could've never guessed that from their linear ratings. For that reason, Elsbeth is safer than its ratings would imply. It's likely to be near the bottom of the pack again in first-run ratings, but performing well in delayed viewing is what saved it before, and it should be enough to save it again. It has no room for error there, though, and if it cools off in delayed ratings, it's going to quickly find itself in the danger zone. For now, it begins as a likely renewal.
Sheriff Country: CBS has made it very clear that the "Country" franchise is their next important brand. They got Sheriff Country off the ground just about as fast as they could, developing this spin-off before the second season of Fire Country even premiered. It got a straight-to-series order that May, and as such, it wasn't quite ready for a fall launch. Instead of a midseason launch, CBS pushed it to fall 2025 to give it the best chance of success. They really seem to want to make this franchise work, and it's unlikely they'll give up on it unless this show is a complete ratings disaster. We don't have the ratings for it so far, but its streaming debut suggests there is at least some interest here. While trailing its parent series, Sheriff Country debuted at #5 on Paramount+, a bit better than Boston Blue. With multiplatform ratings being so important on CBS these days, a strong performance on streaming is a very good early sign. It remains a likely renewal prediction.
Fire Country: As I said above, this show is the first building block in what CBS clearly envisions as an important franchise. It's been a big success so far, and it's among CBS's safest series. It remains a certain renewal.
Boston Blue: Blue Bloods has been a strong Paramount+ performer, and was a longtime inhabitant of that Friday at 10 hour. CBS saw enough value in it even after canceling it that they took an entirely unrelated Boston-set police drama in early development (then called Jamaica Plain) and made it into a Blue Bloods spinoff. Boston Blue was born under unusual circumstances, and was by no means a guaranteed success. We've seen plenty of spinoffs, especially ones premiering after the parent show has already ended, fail to perform like their network likely expected them to. We have no ratings data to see how this show holds up compared to Blue Bloods, but its streaming debut is pretty much on par with how that show was ranking on the Paramount+ charts last season. Boston Blue could run into trouble in the event that CBS is high enough on the Country lineup to want to make it into another three-hour block, but their attempt at an NCIS night showed that that's you can't always make a themed night work just because you want to, so they need to tread carefully and not take anything for granted. Boston Blue leans renewal to start.
And brief thoughts on shows whose fates have already been determined:
The Neighborhood: While its final season announcement wasn't completely unexpected given its old age, CBS is likely to miss The Neighborhood when it ends this season. It's returned as one of their top scripted shows in first-run ratings (though it was one of their lowest-rated shows in delayed viewing last season, so these demo ratings don't show the full story) this week, and has always been such a reliable performer for them. It provides a nice punch at the start of the Monday lineup, and it starts the night with some ratings momentum. While the first attempt at a CBS spinoff wasn't successful, it wouldn't be a total surprise to see CBS try for another Neighborhood spinoff after this season ends, especially if it continues to rate as well as it did for its premiere.
FBI: This show got a big three-season renewal in 2024, which is one of the biggest renewals we've seen a network hand out in recent seasons. Multi-season renewals have never been super common, but they've gotten even more scarce as of late. It is very possible that that big renewal will be the last one FBI ever gets. Both of its spinoffs were canceled last season in one fell swoop, despite solid ratings. FBI went from leading its own full night of related programming to getting stuck in the middle of a Monday lineup with minimal cohesion. It airs behind a comedy block and, for now, before a medical drama. It underperformed in its debut, slightly dipping from DMV and hitting a new series low. It's still clearly a decent-enough performer, and it does have another spinoff coming (though the longevity of that spinoff remains to be seen), but it's also likely fairly expensive, is only partially owned, and CBS has already begun phasing out this franchise. It's unlikely to have a long future on CBS.
Interactive Schedule:
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Neighborhood | DMV | FBI | Watson | |
| Tues | NCIS | NCIS: Origins | NCIS: Sydney | ||
| Wed | Survivor | The Amazing Race | |||
| Thurs | Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage | Ghosts | Matlock | Elsbeth | |
| Fri | Sheriff Country | Fire Country | Boston Blue | ||
| Sun | Tracker | The Road | Encores | ||
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled
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