Prediction Key:
Week 6 Predictions:
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| Shows' 18-49 demo average and weekly peak performance on Paramount+ are listed in parenthesis |
Tracker: CBS released their midseason schedule this week, and it was mostly in accordance to the schedule they released in May. The one big change? Tracker is losing its 8 PM time slot again and heading to 9 PM, in order to make room for Y: Marshals. Does this seeming time slot downgrade mean that Tracker might be in trouble? Not at all. While CBS moving shows to a later time can be a sign that they're ready to move on, it's not always the case. Even when it is CBS indicating a show is nearing its end, it can take a few seasons for the axe to fall. The Equalizer was axed after it lost its 8 PM slot, but NCIS: Los Angeles lasted a bit longer. Also unlike those shows, Tracker is a bona fide smash hit. It's the #1 show on TV in total viewers in mutliplatform ratings, coming in two million viewers ahead of the #2 show with 14 million viewers. It's also by far the highest-rated CBS show, with four million more viewers than their #2 show, Matlock. While I did warn a few weeks ago that Tracker may have a shorter life than its ratings warrant due to being entirely unowned by CBS, season three is not where CBS will be letting it go. I view Tracker's time slot downgrade simply as an attempt to give Y: Marshals, a show from the enormously popular Yellowstone franchise, the best chance at success. If Marshals proves to be a hit, it and Tracker could be a hit Sunday night pairing for years to come. If it's not, it wouldn't be much of a shock to see Tracker moved back to 8 PM next year. Regardless of where it airs next year, Tracker is probably not in much trouble at all. It remains a certain renewal.
Watson: The other show that CBS was moving time slots midseason was Watson. Its time slot move is a bit more concerning than Tracker's. The medical drama has long been viewed as one of the weakest entries in CBS's lineup. It's even lower-rated than international import NCIS: Sydney, and that show is part of an all-NCIS night. Therefore, with CIA set to enter the lineup midseason (allegedly), it was the logical choice to move to the cursed Sundays at 10 slot. It's been several years since a show has survived that slot. The Equalizer was canceled there last year, and CSI: Vegas and NCIS: LA were canceled the two seasons before that. This is a slot that CBS sends shows to die, and it's the slot Watson was announced to be airing in back when it was expected to be a midseason debut with a shorter second season. I think Watson has always been the most likely CBS cancellation, and this does little to really change its fate. While it is bad optics to be moved to Sunday at 10, and CBS probably doesn't intent for it to be an upgrade, airing after Tracker does provide Watson with a unique opportunity. If its retention of Tracker is similar to its retention of FBI, it could find itself as one o their higher-rated 10 PM series. Unfortunately for Watson, the multiplatform ratings do indicate that the audience just isn't there for Watson, and I can't imagine it rising enough in linear ratings with a move to Sundays at 10 to really find itself back in renewal contention. Its new time slot doesn't change its fate as a likely cancellation.
NCIS: Origins: Perhaps the show that's gotten the most attention this fall is not one of CBS's many new entries, but sophomore NCIS spinoff Origins. It's been a bumpy ride for the spinoff this fall. After a tepid premiere, the show quickly slid to near-series low ratings despite its time slot. The show rose a bit after that, and then soared to a near-series high 0.36 as it shifted to 8 PM for a one-of NCIS crossover. That boost was short-lived, and Origins slid back down to a 0.22 just a week later, though it continued to perform a bit better on Paramount+ last week than it had been at the start of the season. The big week-to-week drop confirmed what I'd said in last week's renew/cancel, which is that even though it did have a strong datapoint for the crossover, that 0.36 was not what I'd say Origins' true strength is. It's shown itself to be a consistent 0.2 performer this season, and a mediocre retainer of the solid lead-in that NCIS provides. More multiplatorm+7 data was released this week, and Origins continues to trail NCIS by several million viewers, while shows with lower linear ratings (namely Matlock and Elsbeth) are heavily outperforming it. While it remains a renewal prediction for now, this is a very vulnerable show that could easily find itself canceled if CBS wants to shake up this struggling NCIS night - especially if any of the dramas in development turn out to be promising. It leans renewal for now, but this was not a great week or it.
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Neighborhood | DMV | FBI | Watson | |
| Tues | NCIS | NCIS: Origins | NCIS: Sydney | ||
| Wed | Survivor | The Amazing Race | |||
| Thurs | Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage | Ghosts | Matlock | Elsbeth | |
| Fri | Sheriff Country | Fire Country | Boston Blue | ||
| Sun | Tracker | The Road | Encores | ||
