Certain Cancellation:
The Fix (0.5, 0.4-0.7)
Likely Cancellation:
For the People (0.5, 0.5-0.6)
The Kids are Alright (0.9, 0.6-1.4)
Splitting Up Together (0.7, 0.6-0.9)
Whiskey Cavalier (0.6, 0.4-0.9)
Leans Cancellation:
Bless This Mess (0.7, 0.6-0.9)
Single Parents (0.9, 0.6-1.3)
Leans Renewal:
How To Get Away With Murder (0.7, 0.5-0.8)
Speechless (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
The Rookie (0.7, 0.6-1.0)
Likely Renewal:
Fresh Off the Boat (0.6, 0.5-0.7)
Schooled (1.0, 0.8-1.3)
Station 19 (1.0, 0.8-1.3)
Certain Renewal:
American Housewife (0.9, 0.7-1.2)
The Goldbergs (1.2, 1.0-1.4)
Grey's Anatomy (1.6, 1.3-1.9)
Already Renewed:
Black-ish
The Conners
The Good Doctor
A Million Little Things
Modern Family
American Housewife: This sitcom is three full seasons in the can and is basically the only Tuesday show holding down the fort at this point. It's a no-brainer renewal. Odds of renewal: 100%
Bless This Mess: Even though it had a stronger start than most expected, and it hasn't done that badly since, I don't expect ABC to renew this brand-new show. With just three episodes of a six episode season aired so far, it was always going to be tough to get renewed. The 0.6 last week probably ended things, but it has a stronger pulse than it probably should. Odds of renewal: 45%
The Fix: There's not much left to say about this one. It's still an absolute bomb of a show, just like the last time I spoke about it. I guess the 0.4 it hit last week was fun? Not many shows can boast about that! Odds of renewal: 1%
For the People: This show had absolutely no business getting a second season, let alone a third. With new management at ABC, I highly doubt that Channing Dungey's most questionable renewed show will get another shot. Still, ABC can't seem to shake its Shondaland love, so it's only mostly dead. Odds of renewal: 15%
Fresh Off the Boat: Things looked over for the Huang family when Fresh made its Friday debut. But in the months after, the show was surprisingly steady. It sure didn't light the world. on fire, but ABC could do worse on Friday nights. I don't think the show in out of the woods, but it's a favorite for renewal. Odds of renewal: 70%
The Goldbergs: I said all I needed to say about The Goldbergs a few weeks ago, and nothing haschanged for the family from 1980-something. Odds of renewal: 100%
Grey's Anatomy: Do I really need to elaborate? Odds of renewal: 100%
How To Get Away With Murder: Looking only at the ratings, it doesn't deserve another season. However, I think that ABC will want to let the show go out on its own terms, in order to give the show a good life on streaming in the future. It's all about the profits, and I think this show is bringing in enough cash to get one last run, even if it did hit a 0.5. Odds of renewal: 65%
The Kids Are Alright: This show just looks more and more dead as time goes by. It might not be the biggest flop in the world, but it sure is a disappointment. ABC seems to think so, considering that they pulled an episode of it recently to air a Bless This Mess repeat. That doesn't mean it's definitely dead, since it would've had to take a week off to begin with, but the last minute decision seems to indicate that they aren't that thrilled with it. After all, would they really have treated The Goldbergs or The Conners in such a way? The Kids don't need to be performing as great as those shows, but they should at least be doing alright. They aren't. Odds of renewal: 20%
The Rookie: It did the most it could in such a terrible slot, but I'm starting to consider The Rookie to be more endangered than I originally thought. Even though it should be safe, I think that ABC's two cop procedural pilots in development that are based on existing franchises are in direct competition with The Rookie. It didn't do so well that I can just ignore that. I do think Rookie will ultimately score another season, but it needs to fight for it. Odds of renewal: 60%
Schooled: It may not have lit the world on fire, but this spinoff of The Goldbergs is looking pretty safe. Other than The Conners, it's ABC's #1 new comedy this season. That's not saying much since the rest of the newbie slate was weak, but I expect it to easily get renewed. Odds of renewal: 85%
Single Parents: This is one of the toughest calls for me. I've been pretty confident in a cancellation prediction all season, but it hasn't actually looked that horrifying lately. It's not doing well, but it's doing well enough that I consider it to be very much on the bubble. In the end, I expect a cancellation, because it's just not performing high enough in a slot with high expectations. But that doesn't mean this was an easy call. Odds of renewal: 49%
Speechless: Speechless is the other tough call for me. It did horrible this season, there is no disputing that. 0.4s are just not good enough to occupy any slot on the schedule, even a Friday slot. It had a few solid-ish results, but in the end this was not a successful move for the show. But, and it's a BIG "but," the show is really close to syndication. I'm not sure who would want it, but the potential to syndicate the show might just be enough for ABC to order more of it. After all, profits are the key. Odds of renewal: 51%
Splitting Up Together: It showed so much potential last season, but was one of the weakest comedies on ABC this time around. It's not owned by ABC, and didn't do any better than the owned show that replaced it. I just don't see how this makes it. Odds of renewal: 15%
Station 19: Say what you will about its retention from Grey's, it's incredibly unlikely that this spinoff is going anywhere, at least this season. ABC isn't in a place where they can cut something with a 1.0 average. Odds of renewal: 90%
Whiskey Cavalier: I was more positive than most with this show for some time, but it's now pretty clear that this unowned drama has to go. It may be an internal favorite, but there's still no reason to renew it at this point. It sank all the way to 0.4, and that's inexcusable. Odds of renewal: 15%
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments!
Fresh Off the Boat: Things looked over for the Huang family when Fresh made its Friday debut. But in the months after, the show was surprisingly steady. It sure didn't light the world. on fire, but ABC could do worse on Friday nights. I don't think the show in out of the woods, but it's a favorite for renewal. Odds of renewal: 70%
The Goldbergs: I said all I needed to say about The Goldbergs a few weeks ago, and nothing haschanged for the family from 1980-something. Odds of renewal: 100%
Grey's Anatomy: Do I really need to elaborate? Odds of renewal: 100%
How To Get Away With Murder: Looking only at the ratings, it doesn't deserve another season. However, I think that ABC will want to let the show go out on its own terms, in order to give the show a good life on streaming in the future. It's all about the profits, and I think this show is bringing in enough cash to get one last run, even if it did hit a 0.5. Odds of renewal: 65%
The Kids Are Alright: This show just looks more and more dead as time goes by. It might not be the biggest flop in the world, but it sure is a disappointment. ABC seems to think so, considering that they pulled an episode of it recently to air a Bless This Mess repeat. That doesn't mean it's definitely dead, since it would've had to take a week off to begin with, but the last minute decision seems to indicate that they aren't that thrilled with it. After all, would they really have treated The Goldbergs or The Conners in such a way? The Kids don't need to be performing as great as those shows, but they should at least be doing alright. They aren't. Odds of renewal: 20%
The Rookie: It did the most it could in such a terrible slot, but I'm starting to consider The Rookie to be more endangered than I originally thought. Even though it should be safe, I think that ABC's two cop procedural pilots in development that are based on existing franchises are in direct competition with The Rookie. It didn't do so well that I can just ignore that. I do think Rookie will ultimately score another season, but it needs to fight for it. Odds of renewal: 60%
Schooled: It may not have lit the world on fire, but this spinoff of The Goldbergs is looking pretty safe. Other than The Conners, it's ABC's #1 new comedy this season. That's not saying much since the rest of the newbie slate was weak, but I expect it to easily get renewed. Odds of renewal: 85%
Single Parents: This is one of the toughest calls for me. I've been pretty confident in a cancellation prediction all season, but it hasn't actually looked that horrifying lately. It's not doing well, but it's doing well enough that I consider it to be very much on the bubble. In the end, I expect a cancellation, because it's just not performing high enough in a slot with high expectations. But that doesn't mean this was an easy call. Odds of renewal: 49%
Speechless: Speechless is the other tough call for me. It did horrible this season, there is no disputing that. 0.4s are just not good enough to occupy any slot on the schedule, even a Friday slot. It had a few solid-ish results, but in the end this was not a successful move for the show. But, and it's a BIG "but," the show is really close to syndication. I'm not sure who would want it, but the potential to syndicate the show might just be enough for ABC to order more of it. After all, profits are the key. Odds of renewal: 51%
Splitting Up Together: It showed so much potential last season, but was one of the weakest comedies on ABC this time around. It's not owned by ABC, and didn't do any better than the owned show that replaced it. I just don't see how this makes it. Odds of renewal: 15%
Station 19: Say what you will about its retention from Grey's, it's incredibly unlikely that this spinoff is going anywhere, at least this season. ABC isn't in a place where they can cut something with a 1.0 average. Odds of renewal: 90%
Whiskey Cavalier: I was more positive than most with this show for some time, but it's now pretty clear that this unowned drama has to go. It may be an internal favorite, but there's still no reason to renew it at this point. It sank all the way to 0.4, and that's inexcusable. Odds of renewal: 15%
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments!
