Timeslot Winner Predictions: Fall 2019, Tuesday

Welcome to the second edition of Timeslot Winner Predictions. I will be discussing the shows that are set to air on the broadcast networks in fall 2019, and how they will do relative to one another. Enjoy!

ABC will air the second season of The Conners in the lead-off spot on Tuesday nights, with Bless This Mess airing directly thereafter. CBS has NCIS, The CW has The Flash, and NBC has The Voice airing in this hour in the fall, something that can now have been said for six straight years. FOX’s medical drama The Resident shifts over to Tuesdays for its third season.

The Conners started out strong for its first season, as it already had a built-in audience from those who watched Roseanne. However, it can easily see relatively big declines for its second season now that the novelty of seeing how the show would deal with no Roseanne Barr/Conner has worn off. Its bottom-of-the-hour companion Bless This Mess started out promising for its short first season that premiered late in the spring, but has since settled lower. While it’s doing what it can given its lead-in, there is not much to indicate it will be able to break out in this new time slot.

The Voice has seen some declining ratings lately, and while it is still potent, I think ultimately NCIS will hold up better and be the highest-rated time slot occupant in the coveted Live + Same Day Adults 18-49 demographic. I think while The Conners could occasionally compete for #1 in its half-hour, Bless This Mess will likely cause the network to finish #3. With The Flash declining to ratings almost as close to 0.0 as 1.0, The Resident would be the 4th-Place finisher. The Resident has remained solidly steady in its first two seasons, but a move to a night where FOX has struggled for the past few years is bound to do it no favors.

1st: NCIS (CBS)
2nd: The Voice (NBC)
3rd: The Conners/Bless This Mess (ABC)
4th: The Resident (FOX)
5th: The Flash (The CW)

ABC has ordered to series a prequel to Black-ish, called Mixed-ish. Both will air in the Tuesday 9pm hour, with Mixed-ish airing at 9 and Black-ish at 9:30. FBI will stay put on CBS, making it the second show in the time slot to have scored a spin-off presumably despite the Live + Same Day ratings, or even the DVR ratings for that matter. FOX and The CW are giving new time slots to the final seasons of Empire and Arrow, respectively. NBC will air This Is Us in the hour, as usual.

Empire and This Is Us tend to both thrive in the Women 18-34 demographic, but Empire’s bestbdays are far behind it. This Is Us is also declining rather quickly, making this matchup not as exciting as it would’ve been in fall 2017 or 2018. FBI and Black-ish will probably lag behind a bit, though it remains to be seen if Emoire collapses in its new time slot. Airing between Bless This Mess and Black-ish, I don’t see Mixed-ish as much more than a failed attempt to replicate the success
of Young Sheldon on CBS. Regardless, the ‘ish’ hour will almost certainly have no problem beating Arrow, even if the post-The Flash time slot does put a tiny bit of life back into it.

1st: This Is Us (NBC)
2nd: Empire (FOX)
3rd: FBI (CBS)
4th: Mixed-ish/Black-ish (ABC)
5th: Arrow (The CW)

CBS and NBC respectively have NCIS: New Orleans and New Amsterdam airing in the same time slot as they did in fall 2018. ABC picked up NBC-reject Emergence, which will have the displeasure of being the network’s latest Tuesday at 10pm attempt.

New Amsterdam has shown that it needs a lead-in to have Live + Same Day success, and with This Is Us back in the picture it shouldn’t have much trouble out-rating NCIS’s second spin-off. I can’t see Emergence doing well; even if it starts out OK, NBC reportedly passed on it out of fear that the concept would lead to quick ratings declines, and to even meet the league average it will probably have to grow from its likely-incompatible lead-in.

1st: New Amsterdam (NBC)
2nd: NCIS: New Orleans (CBS)
3rd: Emergence (ABC)

What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments below!

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