Timeslot Winner Predictions: Fall 2019, Monday

Welcome to the first edition of Timeslot Winner Predictions. I will be discussing the shows that are set to air on the broadcast networks in fall 2019, and how I believe they will do relative to one another. Enjoy!

ABC is leading off its Monday night with a new cycle of Dancing with the Stars. It will air against NBC’s singing competition hit The Voice, as well as a comedy hour on CBS led by The Neighborhood and continued by new Chuck Lorre comedy Bob Hearts (stylized as ♥️) Abishola. FOX is offering its Ryan Murphy drama 9-1-1 in the time slot, which slides from the 9pm time slot it occupied in the 2018-19 season. Finally, The CW is trying out Season 2 of All American on a new day and time.

I think The Voice will be able to come out on top here, though it should be a rather competitive hour. 9-1-1 is FOX’s highest-rated drama and the #3 drama overall on broadcast television, and The Neighborhood has provided steady ratings slightly above the league average. Dancing with the Stars’ most recent fall cycle underwhelmed a bit by performing lower than the average show’s fall performance. It should end up being a reliable performer against tough competition, but not one that will be able to allow ABC to compete for first. As for All American, its Season 1 ratings indicate that The CW will finish a distant 5th, even if it sees a little bit of a Netflix bump.

1st: The Voice (NBC)
2nd: 9-1-1 (FOX)
3rd: The Neighborhood/Bob ♥️ Abishola (CBS)
4th: Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
5th: All American (The CW)

The second hour of Dancing with the Stars and The Voice will air on ABC and NBC, respectively. CBS and FOX will both be airing new dramas; that means legal drama All Rise for CBS, and crime show Prodigal Son for FOX. On The CW, Black Lightning will remain in its most recent time slot.

I see no changes being made here from the 8pm hour in terms of network order. Prodigal Son is very unlikely to grow from 9-1-1, and All Rise is a mystery given it is a new drama that will be airing out of a new comedy. I can see this order changing a little bit in the scenario where All Rise flops, but I think the predictions below are the safest bet.

1st: The Voice (NBC)
2nd: Prodigal Son (FOX)
3rd: All Rise (CBS)
4th: Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
5th: Black Lightning (The CW)

While FOX and The CW do not program 10pm, the remaining networks will all air dramas. For ABC and CBS, that involves keeping The Good Doctor and Bull in their 2018-19 time slots. NBC will be airing new legal drama Bluff City Law.

I personally think The Good Doctor will continue to have a lot of untapped potential airing in that time slot, but whatever it gets should still be able to outrate Bull, a show that has seen ratings declining as low as 0.6-0.7 lately in the Live + Same Day Adults 18-49 demo. Bull also has to deal with airing after two new and unproven shows. Bluff City Law does not seem to be getting overwhelmingly positive attention right away. While it will almost certainly premiere higher than Bull and The Good Doctor, I think ultimately it will underwhelm by the standards of that time slot and settle somewhere between the two shows.

1st: The Good Doctor (ABC)
2nd: Bluff City Law (NBC)
3rd: Bull (CBS)

What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments below!

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