What May Cause Training Day to be a Hit?
Lack of major competition
Training Day's competition will be How to Get Away with Murder for probably 4 weeks, then an unknown show from ABC (either low-rated The Catch, or a new drama the network doesn't seem to have faith in), and The Blacklist, or its new spin-off, from NBC (the spin-off will air February 28-April 13, the original before and after that). While not weak shows, Murder and Blacklist aren't the strongest, and they won't face Training Day for many weeks. The rest of the time, the competition will likely be weak.
Solid lead-in
Some shows have weak lead-ins, and often on CBS, no-lead-ins (see Ransom, MacGyver, or Kevin Can Wait after its first few weeks). Training Day has the reliable Life in Pieces as its lead-in, which should provide solid support, and will likely have few, if any, weeks where it repeats while Training Day is an original, due to its late start.
What May Cause Training Day to be a Miss for CBS?
Lack of Thursday at 10:00 drama success
Even before new dramas Pure Genius and Rush Hour in the fall and spring of 2016, Elementary was scoring not-so-great ratings on Thursdays at 10:00. While it is no Tuesdays at 10:00 for ABC, it seems that, recently, the network just can't get anything to stick in that timeslot.
Incompatibility of lead-in
While new dramas Bull and Doubt get drama lead-ins, Training Day gets a comedy lead-in, and while that would work if it was a more comedic procedural, like Castle or Lethal Weapon, it does not seem that Training Day will be comedic.
Negative reception to trailer
It is difficult to compare Training Day's trailer to other CBS mid-season trailers, because Ransom never got a trailer, Superior Donuts doesn't have one yet, and Doubt's was released months after Training Day's. In addition to this, Training Day has title recognition that Doubt does not. So while it is hard to say that the trailer's 115,000 views compares to 5,000 for Doubt means anything, the reception to the trailer is strikingly negative. Of people who clicked like or dislike, only 69% clicked like. It seems people are not into the show.
What to Expect for Training Day?
I think that the negative factors will affect this show strongly, much more so than the positive factors. It could be the timeslot that helps it or hurts it the most though, whether the lack of strong competition helps, or if Thursdays at 10:00 is to CBS as Tuesdays at 10:00 is to ABC.
What factors do you think will be most in play in causing Training Day to be a hit or a miss? Leave your thoughts in the comments!