What May Cause APB to be a Hit?
Lack of compatible competition
APB's competition will be The Bachelor, then Dancing with the Stars on ABC, The Apprentice, then The Voice on NBC, comedies Superior Donuts and 2 Broke Girls on CBS, and dramedy Jane the Virgin on the CW. None of these networks are going after the same audience with these shows as FOX is with APB.
February premiere meaning January promotion
Premiering in February means that, after The Mick premieres and Star returns, more promotional time can be given to 24: Legacy and APB. FOX will have about three weeks to essentially focus on these two shows, and these aren't repeat weeks, like the weeks leading up to the January premieres.
Compatible enough lead-in
In a perfect world, APB's lead-in would be another police procedural, but FOX's two current police procedurals are Rosewood, which is rating poorly and being moved to Fridays, and the comedic, high-action Lethal Weapon, which is staying put on Wednesdays for now (one of few shows to actually stay put on FOX's winter schedule). 24: Legacy, however, is the next best thing, an action drama that also carries the theme of law, order, and justice.
What May Cause APB to be a Miss for FOX?
Least trailer views of new winter FOX shows
In the trailer viewing game, APB is in last place out of the four shows. 24: Legacy is way out in first, while, as of last week, Star was at 580,000 views, The Mick next at 540,000, and APB last at 510,000.
Essentially a police version of Pure Genius
Most of the time, a police procedural needs some sort of twist to make it appealing to viewers. The twist on APB seems very similar to that on medical drama Pure Genius this fall, the team uses new technology to solve cases. Based on Pure Genius, even CBS viewers were uninterested in this. Maybe people have enough genius with Scorpion.
What to Expect for APB?
The factor listed here that seems most compelling to me is the Pure Genius one. It is for that reason that I don't see the show performing very well, in addition to the other winter premieres seeming to be in better shape.
What factors do you think will cause APB to be a hit or a miss? Leave your thoughts in the comments!