Certain to be Canceled
Conviction* (0.7, 0.6-0.9)
Notorious** (0.9, 0.5-1.1)
Likely to be Canceled
Dr. Ken (0.9, 0.8-0.9)
The Real O'Neals (1.0, 0.8-1.2)
Secrets & Lies (0.8, 0.6-1.0)
Quantico (0.8, 0.6-1.0)
Toss-Up
Agents of SHIELD (0.8, 0.7-1.1)
Likely to be Renewed
Fresh Off the Boat (1.3, 1.1-1.6)
Last Man Standing (1.1, 1.1-1.2)
Modern Family (2.3, 2.0-2.6)
Once Upon a Time (1.1, 0.9-1.3)
Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.6, 1.4-1.9)
Black-ish (1.6, 1.2-2.0)
Designated Survivor (1.4, 1.1-2.2)
The Goldbergs (1.8, 1.5-2.0)
Grey's Anatomy (2.2, 1.9-2.5)
How to Get Away with Murder (1.2, 1.1-1.4)
The Middle (1.6, 1.4-1.8)
Speechless (1.7, 1.3-2.0)
*Trimmed to 10 episodes October 25, predicted certain to be canceled since September 23
**Announced it wouldn't receive additional episodes November 8, predicted certain to be canceled since October 7
Designated Survivor: Even though it is down to an average of 1.4, I am keeping Designated Survivor at certain to be renewed. It is the network's highest rated non-Thursday drama, and at the end of the season it could be only behind Grey's Anatomy and Scandal. In the network's current desperate drama state, there is no way they get rid of Designated Survivor this year. I will probably be talking about this show again though, when it returns in March. By then, we will have a feeling of what spring numbers will look like across ABC.
Modern Family: ABC's highest-rated show hit a new low this week, 2.0. With ratings definitely not what they used to be, one has to wonder how much longer ABC can afford this show's large, expensive cast. It is likely that they will be able to get one more season out of it, so it is likely to be renewed.
Last Man Standing: Though never a big hit like Modern Family, Last Man Standing is also in a similar situation, with each year the renewal being last minute, due to the cost of Tim Allen. This fall, Last Man Standing is down 10% from last fall, while ABC's scripted programming as a whole is down 22% fall to fall. Last Man Standing is in a better position this year relative to all of ABC, so the network will likely be willing to pay what they have to for this show.
What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!