NBC Renew/Cancel Week 21: Final Calls for Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist, Manifest, Debris, Good Girls & More

It's been fun, but all good seasons must come to an end. I've had some big successes and some big misses on this season of the NBC Renew/Cancel, and there's still seven shows remaining. It all comes down to this, the final update to the NBC Renew/Cancel of the 2020-21 TV season. Keep reading to see my final predictions for every broadcast show.

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation: 
Debris (0.4)
Nurses (0.3)

Leans Cancellation:
Manifest (0.5)

Leans Renewal:
Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist (0.4)

Likely Renewal:
Good Girls (0.3)

Certain Renewal:
Law & Order: Organized Crime (0.9)
Saturday Night Live (1.3)

Already Renewed:
The Blacklist
Chicago Fire
Chicago Med
Chicago PD
Law & Order: SVU
Mr. Mayor
New Amsterdam
This Is Us
Young Rock

Already Canceled/Final Season:

Debris: After an acceptable start, this drama hilariously collapsed to nearly a 0.3 in week two. That was about as exciting as this shows ratings were all season. It dipped to a single 0.3 later on, but for the most part, it was one of the steadiest shows around, giving NBC consistent 0.4s in that Monday at 10 slot. The 0.36 in week two suggested that it had the potential to be a much bigger bomb that it ended up being. I expected it to be in worse shape at this point. All this is to say that while it's very likely not returning, there's a remote chance that NBC could renew it. Chance of renewal: 20%

Good Girls: This show lies right in between likely and certain renewal, but to be safe, I'm downgrading it after the upgrade in the last update. I still think it's very likely to be back but I'm not entirely certain on it like i was before. Its Netflix deal should absolutely be enough to save it, especially when it continues to grow from Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist despite having a worse timeslot. Chance of renewal: 85%

Kenan: I was pretty sure that NBC could cancel this show thast nearly hit a 0.3, but instead the renewed it. I have no idea why, but they did, and it's a wrong prediction. 

Law & Order: Organized Crime: It's the breakout newbie success of the season for NBC, and is really the only newbie success in first-run ratings. NBC is clearly thrilled, given that they've already announced a new Law & Order show since the premiere of this one. It's not going anywhere. Chance of renewal: 100%

Manifest: I'm never not tripped up by this show. Its ratings are always borderline, never painitng a clear  picture of what NBC will do. The show still has decent gains in delayed viewing and seems to do well on streaming, so that did make me think it would be renewed for most of its run. However, last week's near-0.4s were not very encouraging. It should be doing better than *Debris* given its 8 PM timeslot and the fact that it's a veteran series. NBC doesn't even have distribution rights, those belong to Warner Bros, so that probably isn't going to help it. I honestly don't think it's doing enough to save itself this season, and NBC scheduling it into summer isn't exactly a sign that this is a big priority for them. It has a chance to come back but I think it's on the wrong side of the bubble. Chance of renewal: 45%

Nurses: This isn't even an NBC show so I'm not even expecting a decision on it by Upfronts. It's renewed in Canada but that doesn't mean NBC will have to pick it up here. Ratings were abysmal so it would likely be summer-bound it renewed. It all depends on whether NBC wants another summer show or not. Chance of "renewal": 30%

Saturday Night Live: As long as time ticks on, Saturday Night Live will still be broadcast on NBC. Now in its forty-sixth season, the show is one of the biggest hits on all of television, even if it airs in the middle of the night. Obviously, Lorne Michaels' show isn't going anywhere. Chance of renewal: 100%

Young Rock: NBC gave this freshman comedy a renewal last week and the only thing surprising about it was that it got a renewal before Organized Crime. This was a correct prediction.

Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist: This is a harder call than I anticipated it being. Early in the season it seemed primed for a relatively easy renewal. Those 0.5s and 0.4s on Friday weren't great but they felt like enough to get an internal favorite like Zoey renewed. The move to Sunday has been... difficult. The immediate 0.2, which it's never really recovered from, was a big blow to the show's chances. Even with that embarrassing low, I do think the show will be renewed. First off, it wasnt doing that much worse last season and still got renewed. NBC clearly saw something in it besides those weak live+same-day ratings. It's also a major contender at the Emmys, and broadcast networks love having Emmy contenders in the age of streaming and cable domination. I find it hard to believe that a show that they're pushing so hard for Emmy nominations is something they'd willingly give up on. It'll be close, but I think season three is more likely than not. Chance of renewal: 55%

What do you think of my predictions? What do you think NBC will do? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

Which show do you want renewed the most?
Good Girls
Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist

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