Well, it's time to say goodbye to the ABC Renew/Cancel for this season. After a lengthy season complicated by the COVID pandemic, and featuring all-time low ratings across the board, it's finally time to find out what shows ABC plans to bring into the 2021-22 TV season and which ones are on their way out. Keep reading below to see my final calls on all eleven remaining ABC shows for this season!
Certain Cancellation:
Call Your Mother (0.4, 0.3-0.5)
Likely Cancellation:
For Life (0.3, 0.3-0.5)
Leans Cancellation:
American Housewife (0.6, 0.4-0.6)
Mixed-ish (0.4, 0.3-0.6)
Leans Renewal:
Home Economics (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
Rebel (0.5, 0.4-0.5)
Blackish (0.5, 0.3-0.6)
American Housewife: One of the longest-running comedies on ABC right now, American Housewife does appear to have gotten a bit of a raw deal. Its ratings this season weren't anything great, but weren't horrible compared to the rest of the ABC comedies. Still, ABC only gave it twelve episodes this season (which aired with one leftover episode from last season, making 13 in total) and treated it as a total afterthought. They seem to have stopped caring about this show. With it having made 100 episodes this season, it's a logical time to end it. If they were only dragging it out for syndication purposes, there's no further episode milestone to drag it to. It feels like it's time for them to let it go, whether it deserves it or not. Chance of renewal: 40%
Big Sky: Last week, a single day after I downgraded the show from certain to likely renewal, ABC ordered a second season of Big Sky. It's a renewal that's wholly earned based on the first half of the season, but the weaker ratings near the end gave me pause. Either way, it's a correct prediction.
Blackish: The ratings are horrible. Like, completely abysmal. Hitting 0.3s should be enough to put it on the bubble, and enough to make me confident that the end is near. And yet, it's not on the bubble, and I don't know when it's ending. Ratings for this show don't really matter, it makes ABC too much money in other ways for it to just be canceled. It would be throwing away free money. Those deals are easily enough to keep it around. Chance of renewal: 100%
Call Your Mother: I've held out on a downgrade for this show all season, mostly because I've simply forgotten that it exists. We're at the end of the season now, so might as well downgrade it now. Its ratings have been quite consistent. Unfortunately for it, they've been consistently terrible. 0.3 isn't going to cut it for a freshman, unowned comedy. ABC seems to have given up on it, as well, opting to air repeats of The Conners in its slot on the weeks it's off, instead of repeats of Mother. There's virtually no chance that it comes back, even if it wasnt' quite as big of a bomb as it probably could've been. Chance of renewal: 5%
The Conners: I thought it would end up being a bigger bubble show than this, but ABC seems quite content with what The Conners is doing. They're negotiating deals with the cast, so it's clearly returning unless something falls through. The show isn't in great shape, ratings-wise, with a 42% drop to a 0.6 average, but it maintains strong delayed viewing gains and is the #2 comedy on the network. That's why I always assumed it would would return, and that's why I continue to think so. Chance of renewal: 85%
For Life: Somehow looking a bit less dead recently is For Life. It's reported to be on the bubble, and executive producer 50 Cent seems pretty confident about it returning (perhaps just wishful thinking on his part). The show averaged a pretty pituful 0.34 in season two, a season which feels like it ended about seven years ago. A Million Little Things is doing better in its slot and even cheap filler show The Con did basically the same, so I think it will ultimately be canceled. Its reportedly strong Hulu performance, however, makes it impossible to fully count it out. Chance of renewal: 35%
The Goldbergs: The longest-running ABC comedy and also the highest-rated, The Goldbergs should be a pretty easy renewal. To say it's showing signs of age would be an understatement. It's hit multiple new lows this season and shed 26% of its season 7 average despite staying in the same slot. However, it's hard to imagine ABC simply canceling a show that's been so important to them, especially when it's still their #3 scripted show. One day soon, it will end. I highly doubt that'll be this year. Chance of renewal: 90%
Grey's Anatomy: Renewed just today, Grey's Anatomy was only ever not considered a certain renewal here due to the very faint chance that star Ellen Pompeo could decide to walk away. After all, there's no Grey's Anatomy without Meredith Grey. However, ABC was able to close deals with Pompeo and other stars, and it's a correct prediction.
Home Economics: Does it deserve a renewal? Absolutely not. Will it be getting one? I'd bet on it. ABC seems quite taken by this late-season sitcom, which got off to a decent enough start before faltering in the ratings. Its 0.4s aren't impressive in any way but ABC is continuing to promote it heavily and repeat it whenever they can, not exactly how you behave towards a show you're about to renew. While the ratings paint one picture, ABC's treatment of the show paints another. Bet on renewal here. Chance of renewal: 55%
A Million Little Things: While ratings have fallen off a cliff this season, thanks in large part to its move to Wednesdays, this show remains a likely returnee on ABC. It's quite popular on streaming and is owned by ABC. It's also performing moderately better than For Life in that Wednesday slot despite having a weaker lead-in, which would be another argument for renewal. While the ratings suggest that it could be a bubble show, there's many factors that makes that not the case. Chance of renewal: 75%
Mixed-ish: It's hard to know what ABC is going to do with this show. While the ratings are abysmal, they do love the Ish franchise. Ratings weren't good last season, either, and it still got a second season. However, I do think its ratings this season were too low to get a renewal. It doesn't seem to have the streaming audience of Blackish, and unless it's included in the Blackish syndication deal, it really doesn't have anything going for it aside from being a part of a franchise they love. I could see it being renewed just for that, but I think a cancellation is more likely. Chance of renewal: 45%
Rebel: Do I think Rebel is doing great? No. Do I think it's doing passably? Yes. That post-Grey's lot isn't quite as prestiguous as it seems, given that Grey's seems to have a large same-day audience that watches it on DVR, which puts it in direct competition with the show that airs at 10. Rebel could obviously be doing better, but by now we all know that marginal shows such as this are renewed all the time. Station 19/Grey's Anatomy showrunner Krista Vernoff creating Rebel helps to give it renewal odds that are better than your average middling freshman player. With ratings as mediocre as they are, it's far from a lock, but ABC should be able to work out a renewal Chance of renewal: 55%
The Rookie: What looked at one point this season like a true bubble show has ended up rebounded nicely. The Rookie scored a 0.6 last night out of a 0.8 from American Idol, securing its status as a true renewal favorite. Its average isn't anything incredible, but it's doing just fine and, coupled with strong DVR gains and a streaming performance that seems quite solid, it's going to be back. Chance of renewal: 85%
Station 19: Like its parent show, Station 19 scored a renewal earlier today. I've always considered the show, ABC's #2 series, to be a certain renewal, and this was another correct prediction for me.
What do you think of my final predictions for ABC's 2020-21 scripted slate? What do you want renewed? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
