NBC Renew/Cancel Week 20: Good Girls Has Great Renewal Odds

This week on the NBC Renew/Cancel, I shift the attention back to Good Girls for some additional discussion of a show that's flown under my radar this season. Plus, I talk about an under-performing comedy that's been dropping more as the season goes on. Keep reading to see which two shows will see prediction shakeups this week!

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation: 
Debris (0.4)
Kenan (0.5)
Nurses (0.3)

Leans Cancellation:

Leans Renewal:
Manifest (0.6)
Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist (0.4)

Likely Renewal:
Young Rock (0.7)

Certain Renewal:
Good Girls (0.3)
Law & Order: Organized Crime (1.0)
Saturday Night Live (1.3)

Already Renewed:
The Blacklist
Chicago Fire
Chicago Med
Chicago PD
Law & Order: SVU
Mr. Mayor
New Amsterdam
This Is Us

Already Canceled/Final Season:

Good Girls: Networks make bad decisions sometimes, that's for sure. Solid performers get canceled, flops get renewed, so on and so forth. However, networks don't turn down free money. That's what Good Girls is at this point. This show is a big hit on Netflix that makes NBC a ton of money thanks to the deal NBC made with Netflix back during its first season. That's probably what got it renewed in the first place and that's probably the only reason it's still on and still so profitable despite low ratings in the lowest-priority slot available. But even with the terrible timeslot, it's still doing better than any other Sunday show on NBC, this week getting a 0.37 behind Zoey's Playlist's 0.26. It's hard to grow from your lead-in at 10 o'clock (Good Girls is one of very few shows to regularly do this, with others including Blue Bloods and Big Sky), and even harder to do that on a Sunday night. I don't see any way that NBC cancels this show, which is a very valuable and important asset for them. It's certainly proving its worth this season, and is a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

Kenan: Oh boy. This is maybe the most disappointing show of the season. A comedy produced by SNL's Lorne Michaels starring SNL's longest-running star, Kenan Thompson, show have been a very good fit for NBC's audience. It wasn't. It had a great start, and I was quite confident in its long-term future, but it collapsed like very few shows we've seen. It went from a strong 0.8 to a weak 0.4 in just 9 episodes (it was a 0.3 in the prelims, so somehow the 0.36 is a mild improvement). It was rejected, just like its lead-in Young Rock was. Perhaps those pilot viewers only watched it because of its lead-in and had no interest in continuing beyond that. Maybe it would still be doing well if it still had a 1.0 lead-in. It's not worth speculating, though, because it doesn't have a 1.0 lead-in (nor is it even possible for it to get a 1.0 lead-in on NBC anymore). It has a 0.5 lead-in, and that's leading to it nearly hitting 0.3s. Unlike Young Rock (and the renewed Mr. Mayor, which never dropped this low), it doesn't have any streaming fanbase. It never shows up on Hulu's trending list, its digital performance is never bragged about by NBC, and I've heard nothing fo a streaming deal for it like other NBC comedies. It's a show best suited for a broadcast audience and it's even bombing there. I don't see how it comes back, especially with two new comedies already ordered by NBC, Mr. Mayor renewed and Young Rock being a much more obvious renewal choice. It's a LIKELY CANCELLATION.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

Where would you place Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist?
Certain Renewal
Likely Renewal
Leans Renewal
Leans Cancellation
Likely Cancellation
Certain Cancellation

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