NBC Renew/Cancel Week 18: Law & Order: Organized Crime Organizes NBC’s Biggest Debut in Years

It was a big Thursday for NBC last week, with Chris Meloni making a heavily-buzzed return to the Law & Order franchise with a new spinoff, as well as Manifest making its third season debut. Keep reading to see my initial predictions for these two series.

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation: 
Nurses (0.3)
Debris (0.4)

Leans Cancellation:
Kenan (0.5)

Leans Renewal:
Manifest (0.7)
Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist (0.4)

Likely Renewal:
Good Girls (0.3)
Young Rock (0.7)

Certain Renewal:
Law & Order: Organized Crime (1.6)
Saturday Night Live (1.3)

Already Renewed:
The Blacklist
Chicago Fire
Chicago Med
Chicago PD
Law & Order: SVU
Mr. Mayor
New Amsterdam
This Is Us

Already Canceled/Final Season:

Coming Soon:
Joe Exotic

Law & Order: Organized Crime: The latest series in the Law & Order franchise got off to a massive start last week, raking in the largest 18-49 rating for a new NBC series since Manifest in fall 2019 (and comparing both ratings to the overall league average, Organized Crime did a bit better than Manifest's launch). Its 1.6 rating was shocking, espeIcially when you consider the 0.6s and 0.7s that its parent show SVU had been stuck at this season. Viewers were clearly interested in the return of original SVU charcter Elliot Stabler, with the SVU episode he appeared in soaring to a 1.7, and that interest carried over to the spinoff. Though it's likely that the show will drop in the coming weeks, and likely by quite a bit, I don't see any way that they cancel it. At worst, it'll be a strong 10 PM performer, even if it's no longer a hit overall, and NBC will be thrilled to have that. Dick Wolf's latest show is a CERTAIN RENEWAL. 

Manifest: Manifest's third season got off to a strong start last week, launching to a 0.65. Considering that this show is known for its downward trajectory from episode-to-episode, that's a nice start. Season two's premiere came in over a tenth below the first season finale. This season dropped 0.08 from the second season finale, despite season two airing during the height of the COVID lockdown ratings bump. There's still issues for the show despite the solid start. For one, it's probably going to slip as time goes on - it had the advantage of airing directly before a hotly-anticipated event. It's also still not owned by NBC, as Warner Brothers is still the distributor. That's what made me think it would get canceled last season, and that's what makes me weary of being too high on it this season. I'll start it out as LEANS RENEWAL until we see where it settles.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

Where would you place Manifest?
Certain Renewal
Likely Renewal
Leans Renewal
Leans Cancellation
Likely Cancellation
Certain Cancellation

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