ABC Renew/Cancel Week 21: Rebel Without a Cause

In the past week, ABC launched new additions to both its Wednesday and Thursday lineups, bringing in new series Rebel and Home conmics. Keep reading to see my outlook for both of them!


Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:
Call Your Mother (0.4, 0.3-0.5)
For Life (0.3, 0.3-0.5)

Leans Cancellation:
American Housewife (0.6, 0.4-0.6)
Mixed-ish (0.4, 0.3-0.6)
Rebel (0.5)

Leans Renewal:
The Conners (0.6, 0.5-0.9)
Home Economics (0.6)

Likely Renewal:
The Goldbergs (0.7, 0.6-0.8)
Grey's Anatomy (1.1, 0.9-1.3)
A Million Little Things (0.5, 0.4-0.7)
The Rookie (0.5, 0.4-0.6)

Certain Renewal:
Big Sky (0.6, 0.6-0.7)
Blackish (0.5, 0.3-0.6)
The Good Doctor (0.6, 0.5-0.7)
Station 19 (0.9, 0.8-1.2)

Rebel: The newest ABC drama debuted last week, and its ratings give me little confidence in its ability to return for another season. Its 0.48 debut behind the 0.9 from Grey's Anatomy in very uninspiring, not exactly abysmal but not strong, either. Meh debuts tend to lead to ugly ratings later on as shows go through the typical trend of dropping post-premiere. 0.4s in this slot are renewable, but 0.3s or lower aren't. There is one thing, however, that puts Rebel above the average middling late-season replacement series: it's created, written and produced by Krista Vernoff, showrunner for both Grey's Anatomy and Station 19. ABC has a close relationship with Vernoff, considering that her shows are their #1 and #2 scripted series. It might not be enough to get the show a renewal (I'd wager that it isn't), but it's certainly something worth considering. ABC's special relationship with Shonda Rhimes was enough to get both The Catch and For the People second chances. Vernoff hasn't yet reached that level of prominence at ABC (she didn't create either of her hits), but they still have a wonderful relationship with her that shouldn't be entirely discounted. It LEANS CANCELLATION.

Home Economics: It's hard for me to really assess this one, seeing that it debuted amid a "stronger" night for its lineup than usual, and had a ton of promos for its premiere. It did fine enough on premiere night drawing a 0.56 behind the 0.65 from The Goldbergs. That's standard retention for an 8:30 comedy and it suggests that, at least theoretically, it could last. If it remains at similar retention from The Goldbergs throughout the rest of the season, ABC may give it a chance to launch in the fall. I have my doubts that it'll hold up, but 0.56 is certainly quite a renewable rating at this point, and I'll give it the benefit of the doubt for now. It LEANS RENEWAL so far.

Blackish: After this week's abysmal performance that saw Blackish slip to the lowest rating in its history, it's easy to wonder if it's in any danger. While it did pitifully last week and even its spinoff Mixedish was able to built on it, I still don't see this show being in any real danger. It's still making ABC a bunch of money, as evidenced by the fact that they're still developing spinoffs of it. It's in syndication unlike most other ABC shows, and that alone is still enough to cover the low ratings. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL even though the ratings on ABC are rough.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

Where would you place Rebel?
Certain Renewal
Likely Renewal
Leans Renewal
Leans Cancellation
Likely Cancellation
Certain Cancellation

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