NBC Renew/Cancel Week 19: Manifest Flies Lower

The season is winding down, but there's still plenty to talk about with two of NBC's most recent premieres! Keep reading for my thoughts on a declining Manifest and a positive turn for Young Rock!

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation: 
Nurses (0.3)
Debris (0.4)

Leans Cancellation:
Kenan (0.5)

Leans Renewal:
Manifest (0.6)
Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist (0.4)

Likely Renewal:
Good Girls (0.3)
Young Rock (0.7)

Certain Renewal:
Law & Order: Organized Crime (1.2)
Saturday Night Live (1.3)

Already Renewed:
The Blacklist
Chicago Fire
Chicago Med
Chicago PD
Law & Order: SVU
Mr. Mayor
New Amsterdam
This Is Us

Already Canceled/Final Season:

Manifest: Despite a solid return two weeks ago, the second week of season three wasn't nearly as kind to Manifest. The series slid below the 0.50 mark to a 0.48, which is a new series low. That's a bit higher than the hour-long comedy block that's aired in that slot this season, but it's still not great. The show isn't full owned by NBC (it's a co-production with Warner Brothers, which also distributes it) and is already hitting ratings that put it in clear danger for a cancellation. NBC tends to renew shows that they expect to be profitable for them (look at Good Girls and Zoey's Playlist), so Manifest will be returning if NBC and Warner can work out a good deal. However, it's falling into the same position as last year: it's an unowned show in a good slot with middling ratings. It could go either way at this point, especially with its ratings likely to go even lower as the season goes by (it's likely to run into summer at this rate, having aired just two episodes of what's likely a ten-to-thirteen episode order). NBC made a deal for it last season, so I expect them to be able to do it this time, but it's a close call. It still LEANS RENEWAL but I'm cautious and a bit conflicted.

Young Rock: After what feels like a hundred straight weeks of dropping (it was actually only six), Young Rock finally ticked up week-to-week for the first time! It rose this week from a 0.51 to a 0.58, showing signs that it may have finally found a base audience. 0.5 isn't a terribly impressive base audience, but it's going to be enough to secure a renewal this time. It remains on the high end of LIKELY RENEWAL.

What do you think of my preditions? What are yours? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
Where would you place Young Rock?
Certain Renewal
Likely Renewal
Leans Renewal
Leans Cancellation
Likely Cancellation
Certain Cancellation

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