FOX Renew/Cancel Watch: Optimistic Predictions...For Now

The Ratings Junkie

Well, premiere week is over. The Sunday comedies are yet to premiere, but other than that we've seen a lot of FOX. What we saw were mixed results. Here are the first predictions:

Certain Cancelation	Likely Cancelation	Watching	Likely Renewal	Certain Renewal
	Rosewood	Brooklyn Nine-Nine	New Girl	Gotham
		Pitch	Scream Queens	Lucifer
			Lethal Weapon	Empire
			The Exorcist
			Son of Zorn

Gotham and Lucifer
The DC Monday duo on FOX both premiered to a paltry 1.3 A18-49 L+SD rating, but at this point, FOX has way bigger things to worry about. At the very least, they're a perfect pair for each other, neither could launch a new show though I supposed having Gotham's audience as a lead-in can't possibly hurt Lucifer. Gotham is only a season away from a potential syndication deal, too.

Brooklyn Nine-Nine, New Girl, and Scream Queens
Tuesday all premiered lower than Monday, with Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.1), New Girl (1.2), and Scream Queens (1.0) all likely to go fractional in live ratings soon. The good news for New Girl and Scream Queens is that both have a very young skew, with Scream Queens' A18-34 rating almost tying the A18-49 one. Plus, it's a limited series so it doesn't have to hog up a spot on the schedule for the entire season, and gets big bounces on other platforms. Brooklyn Nine-Nine, meanwhile, isn't owned by FOX and is in its fourth season. Its best days are behind it, and I think we may need to be cautious of it. Its fate most likely depends on how the new comedies (Son of Zorn, Making History, and The Mick) do, as well as how The Last Man On Earth returns.

Lethal Weapon and Empire
Empire is getting renewed. Sure, its 4.2 premiere was way down from the S2 premiere, but this show is still a monster in the ratings. With FOX's next-highest-rated veteran premiere less than a third of that, I don't think it has anything to worry about. Elsewhere on the night, Lethal Weapon is looking like another Rosewood; a respectable 2.2 premiere looks worse when you see that Empire pre-tune made the half-hours 1.9/2.4. It'll do respectable in raw numbers, but don't be surprised if you see it skew a little bit towards the W18-34 demographic; that's the Empire effect for you, and it'll be gone without it.

Rosewood and Pitch
Speaking of Rosewood, it absolutely collapsed without Empire. Many expected poor results due to its 0.8 finale sans Empire, but a 0.7 premiere rating is simply embarrassing and worthy of being replaced by something, especially since its not a big non-linear gainer. It's also not helping Pitch, which premiered to a weak 1.1. I'll keep my eye on Pitch for a little bit, such as if there's talk about gender/age skew and non-linear viewing, but so far it's not looking good.

The Exorcist
The Exorcist premiered on Friday to a 1.0 A18-49 rating. Not great, but not terrible either; if it stays around a 0.6-0.7 L+SD rating I think it has a shot; not much would do better there unless they find a new reality staple, and I suppose it could give them backend revenue being a known asset.

Son of Zorn
Son of Zorn premiered to a 2.4 L+SD rating (very nearly a 2.5 if you look at the unrounded numbers), but barely gained anything in L+3. That's never a good sign. It has Lord Miller Productions going for it, though, and realistically needs to hold less than half its premiere rating to stay afloat. Talk to me on Monday about how I feel, but for now, it looks promising.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your own and let me know what you think in the comments below!