ABC Renew/Cancel September 30: Initial Predictions for Last Man Standing, Once Upon a Time, Secrets & Lies, and More

This week, ABC premiered five shows: Last Man Standing, Dr. Ken, Once Upon a Time, Secrets & Lies, and Quantico. Also, week two for some shows gave us an idea of where they will end up. So, let's get to my predictions!

Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)

Certain to be Canceled
Notorious (1.1, 1.1-1.1)

Likely to be Canceled
Secrets & Lies (1.0)

Agents of SHIELD (1.0, 0.9-1.1)
Dr. Ken (0.9)
Once Upon a Time (1.2)
Quantico (1.0)

Likely to be Renewed
Last Man Standing (1.1)
Modern Family (2.5, 2.3-2.6)

Certain to be Renewed
Black-ish (1.8, 1.6-2.0)
Designated Survivor (2.0, 1.8-2.2)
The Goldbergs (2.0, 1.9-2.0)
Grey's Anatomy (2.5, 2.4-2.5)
How to Get Away with Murder (1.4, 1.3-1.4)
Speechless (1.9, 1.8-2.0)

Last Man Standing: In its season premiere, Last Man Standing matched the previous season's premiere. That seems to indicate that it is in a better position than it was last season, and last season it got renewed, so renewal should be certain. The thing is, last year Last Man Standing grew from its premiere rating, which is rare. So, I would say that Last Man Standing is probably going to be about as strong this season as it was last.

Secrets & Lies: After a long time off, Secrets & Lies returned to a 1,0, tying Quantico for the second lowest season premiere rating on ABC so far this fall, only behind Dr. Ken. Additionally, Quantico and Dr. Ken have advantages that Secrets & Lies doesn't in terms of syndication potential (either Quantico or Dr. Ken would need two more seasons, Secrets & Lies would need seven more), and Dr. Ken airs on Friday, so it is expected to be lower. It seems that Secrets & Lies is farther down on the network totem pole than every show except new series Notorious, which premiered a tenth higher with a large lead-in.

Once Upon a Time: Despite a premiere higher than Last Man Standing's, Once Upon a Time is a toss-up. There are two reasons for this, one is that Last Man Standing airs on a lesser viewed night, and the second is that a multi-camera sitcom must be much cheaper to produce than a fantasy drama. This 1.2 it earned matches many of the ratings that Once Upon a Time earned last spring, and with the decrease that comes from fall to spring, the ratings may end up not justifying the cost. However, we do not know exactly how much it costs to make the series, and if Secrets & Lies and Quantico fall harder, it makes Once Upon a time look stronger.

Dr. Ken: The 0.9 Dr. Ken premiered to this season matches the lowest ratings it hit during its first season. This is not a good sign, However, ABC studios is behind this show, so they could push for it to reach four seasons in order to enter syndication. We should keep an eye on Dr. Ken to see if it falls, stays steady, or even rises in coming weeks.

Quantico: Similar to Dr. Ken, the rating it premiered to is not great, but it could get renewed in order to make enough episodes for syndication. Also, Quantico airs in a difficult timeslot, and if it is canceled, the question of what replaces it arises. If Quantico gets canceled, most likely Secrets & Lies will end up canceled as well, and we do not know if Once Upon a Time or midseason entry Time After Time will get renewed. This means, if Quantico is canceled, that may create one hole too many in ABC's Sunday night line-up.

Speechless: This show held up well in week two. It dropped two tenths, 10%, while its lead-in dropped 1 tenth, meaning it went from 100% retention to 95% retention, That is one small week two drop, and considering that it is performing on par with the rest of the Wednesday night line-up, I see no reason why it wouldn't get renewed.

Designated Survivor: This show didn't have as small of a drop in week two, but its four tenth, 18% drop still isn't bad, and the 1.8 it earned is higher than what its lead-in earned, in fact the same number of tenths higher than its lead-in last week. The drop it experienced wasn't at all worrying, and the show is earning solid ratings, so it certainly will be able to return.

How to Get Away with Murder: After dropping one tenth in week two, I decided to move How to Get Away with Murder up to certain to be renewed. I only didn't put it there last week because I don't Like to put shows there after one week unless it is 100% certain, and I wasn't quite there with Murder. As it didn't face a large drop this week, I now predict its renewal with certainty.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

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