Predictions for 1/14/23
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| Photo Credit: FOX |
Below are the latest renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2022-23 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. Since the previous update, new drama 'Alert: Missing Persons Unit' and sophomore series 'Fantasy Island' have entered the table. Additionally, 'The Simpsons', 'The Great North', and 'The Resident' have all posted new lows in the new year. As always, only scripted programming will be taken into account in this column.
Alert: Outside of the mild success that 'The Cleaning Lady' had in its first season, Fox has had an incredibly difficult time finding a new drama that can deliver solid Nielsen ratings. And given the data that is currently available, it is clear that 'Alert: Missing Persons Unit' will not be the one that bucks this trend. 'Alert' began its run on Sunday, January 8 with a football-boosted 0.90 rating in the Adults 18-49 demographic. All things considered, this number can be considered satisfactory and is only a tenth or two below the average NFL-inflated 'Simpsons' episode. Had 'Alert' retained even half of this debut rating for its timeslot premiere, it would have been on strong footing for the time being. Instead, the series plummeted to a 0.22 just a day later and is Likely to be Canceled. This trend is almost identical to that of 'Monarch' from the Fall (0.91-0.21), a drama that was swiftly axed in December 2022. What makes this case even worse is that the two 'Monarch' episodes aired 9 days apart. 'Alert' lost over 75% of its premiere rating in the span of 25 hours. Expect 'Alert' to be missing from the schedule by the time Fall 2023 rolls around.
Fantasy Island: In the late summer months of 2021, 'Fantasy Island' emerged with abysmal Nielsen ratings and almost no fanfare. It generally hovered around a 0.3 Adults 18-49 rating and often trailed its 'LEGO Masters' lead-in by substantial amounts. The drama returned on January 2, 2023 with a dreadful new series low (0.17) but was able to grow a bit for the January 9th installment (0.21). Though the increase in week two serves as a step in the right direction, 'Fantasy Island' still has the lowest average out of all the shows on the Fox network. The series is Likely to be Canceled and unlikely to move any higher on the chart.
The Resident: Time and time again, it seems like 'The Resident' only escapes cancellation because the newer dramas around it are performing worse than it. The 0.28 rating that the program posted on January 3rd may be low by its standards but still trumps anything that 'Fantasy Island', 'Alert', or 'Monarch' can do without NFL help. The series is getting up there in age and not much of a winner when using Nielsen's metric but remains Likely to be Renewed due to its semi-adequate numbers.
Poll of the Week
Will 'Alert: Missing Persons Unit' be Renewed?
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