NBC Renew/Cancel Week 12: Time to Take American Auto to the Junkyard

This week on the NBC Renew/Cancel, a sophomore comedy enters the scene and is in desperate need of a trip to the repair show. Keep reading for my initial thoughts on American Auto.

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:
American Auto (0.38)

Leans Cancellation:
La Brea (0.39, 0.32-0.49)
Young Rock (0.26, 0.22-0.31)

Leans Renewal:

Likely Renewal:
Law & Order (0.48, 0.43-0.60)
Law & Order: Organized Crime (0.47, 0.41-0.62)
Lopez vs. Lopez (0.30, 0.26-0.33)

Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.66, 0.58-0.77)
Chicago Med (0.62, 0.56-0.70)
Chicago PD (0.60, 0.51-0.68)
Law & Order: SVU (0.58, 0.50-0.69)
Night Court (0.89, 0.74-0.98)
Saturday Night Live (0.77, 0.66-0.98)

Already Canceled/Final Season:
New Amsterdam

Already Renewed:
Quantum Leap

Coming Soon:
The Blacklist
Grand Crew 

American Auto: American Auto returned this week with a 0.38 in the demo, which is actually slightly up from its first season average. Yet, this is probably its worst datapoint yet. That's because while those other datapoints came while it was starting off the night itself, and this result was after a strong 0.74 lead-in from Night Court, a show that should be very compatible in theory. 51% retention will very likely not be enough for a renewal, especially since Night Court will likely see significant slippage itself in the weeks to come. This 0.38 by American Auto is likely significantly inflated, and it will likely settle far lower than that. NBC has had a tendency to renew freshman comedies in recent seasons to give them a chance to find an audience. The successful ones have continued to receive renewals, while those that fail in their second chance (Kenan and Mr. Mayor last season) are canceled. American Auto certainly appears to have failed in its second shot, squandering a strong lead-in on premiere night. It's a LIKELY CANCELLATION.

Night Court: In week two, this reboot of the 1980s sitcom certainly came back down to earth a bit, but it remained a very strong performer. To put things into perspective: of the top five ratings for scripted series on broadcast (not counting those inflated by an NFL lead-in), three of those are episodes of Night Court. It will probably not settle at this level, but it still has a ton of room left to fall to even get in the vicinity of the #2 NBC comedy (American Auto, itself inflated by the Night Court lead-in). Barring any extremely unlikely scenarios, a network won't cancel a top performer like Night Court, and it remains a CERTAIN RENEWAL in spite of the decline.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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